NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	80		Excitement	4.6 [929]		MVP	Tayshaun Prince (DET): +4.9%
Miami Heat	72		Comeback	1.5 [440]		LVP	Damon Jones (MIA): -18.3%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tayshaun Prince	0.05	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	17	47%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	8	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	3	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Rasheed Wallace	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.08	0.01	-0.04	9	30%	-0.03	0	0.00	5	100%	0.03
Ben Wallace	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.10	0.02	-0.03	14	37%	-0.02	2	-0.03	4	50%	-0.01
Lindsey Hunter	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	3	44%	-0.02	2	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
Richard Hamilton	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	15	50%	0.03	3	-0.08	4	75%	0.01
Chauncey Billups	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	0.01	8	43%	-0.06	1	-0.02	7	57%	-0.03

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Doleac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	5	60%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.02	0.00	9	68%	0.05	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Steven Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	0.01	0.04	17	54%	0.03	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.07	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.12	-0.03	0.01	12	31%	-0.15	0	0.00	8	50%	-0.04
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.09	-0.03	0.04	8	41%	-0.12	2	-0.04	6	33%	-0.05
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.17	-0.01	-0.02	6	28%	-0.08	4	-0.09	6	50%	-0.03
Damon Jones	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.14,-0.18	-0.18	-0.19	-0.04	-0.04	15	17%	-0.13	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.6	3.4	31.8	17.7	29.3	2.8	37.2	150.8
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +26.6%

DET +11.6%

DET +2.2%

DET +7.3%

DET +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIA	NBA	DET	MIA	NBA
this game	16.4	17.7	15.5	94.1	85.7	104.0
season	16.7	15.7		103.5	107.9
opponent	15.5	15.9		101.1	98.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	17.8	14.0	15.7	18.1	16.4
MIA	17.3	21.3	17.7	14.6	17.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Richard Hamilton	74	71	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.18	10	-2	12	16.0	19.3	-3.27	17.2	20.1	-2.85
Ben Wallace	69	70	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.16	9	-1	10	16.3	17.0	-0.71	17.8	17.1	0.63
Chauncey Billups	65	64	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.13	9	-1	10	15.5	19.3	-3.83	17.1	19.5	-2.41
Rasheed Wallace	52	52	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.09	9	-1	10	16.0	17.1	-1.04	16.9	18.9	-2.00
Tayshaun Prince	79	77	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.29	2	6	-4	17.0	9.2	7.81	17.5	19.3	-1.77
Carlos Arroyo	23	25	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.02	9	-1	10	16.5	16.4	0.13	19.4	16.9	2.47
Antonio McDyess	49	46	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.28	-2	10	-12	17.0	15.6	1.46	18.4	16.8	1.55
Lindsey Hunter	14	15	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	14	-20	19.6	15.8	3.77	20.1	17.1	2.92

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shandon Anderson	44	42	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.37	14	-22	36	17.5	17.8	-0.25	18.0	14.8	3.21
Steven Smith	10	10	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.01	-3	-5	2	15.6	17.9	-2.35	10.7	17.2	-6.49
Damon Jones	47	49	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.02	-5	-3	-2	16.8	18.8	-2.04	15.2	18.1	-2.98
Michael Doleac	35	33	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.15	-1	-7	6	18.1	17.4	0.72	17.7	15.6	2.08
Eddie Jones	74	76	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.26	-1	-7	6	17.1	21.9	-4.81	16.1	19.1	-3.01
Keyon Dooling	44	43	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.26	-3	-5	2	18.2	17.0	1.18	17.8	15.0	2.77
Alonzo Mourning	62	66	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.28	-3	-5	2	17.2	19.1	-1.93	16.3	16.7	-0.40
Udonis Haslem	68	68	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.15	-10	2	-12	18.2	15.2	2.99	16.6	15.8	0.75
Dwyane Wade	36	38	-0.66	0.16	-0.83	0.16	-28	20	-48	19.4	16.3	3.11	15.6	17.1	-1.43

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.25,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.2,0.18,0.21,0.14,0.1,0.15,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.1,0.14,0.09,0.17,0.12,0.09,0.05,0.08,0.01,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 116, CHA 104	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.39,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.25,0.22,0.2,0.19,0.22,0.18,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	94.5%
NOH 96, DEN 87	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.26,0.2,0.16,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.17,0.25,0.07,0.01,0.01,0	94.5%
PHI 104, ATL 92	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.5,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.35,0.3,0.22,0.26,0.17,0.18,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.22,0.24,0.16,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.15,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.14,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0	94.5%