NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	94		Excitement	3.2 [1179]		MVP	DerMarr Johnson (DEN): +9.5%
New Orleans Hornets	83		Comeback	1.0 [644]		LVP	J.R. Smith (NOH): -18.3%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DerMarr Johnson	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.10	0.01	0.01	4	100%	0.09	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Wesley Person	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.11	0.01	0.04	7	86%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	8	55%	0.03	2	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Bryon Russell	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nene	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	8	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Kenyon Martin	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.06	0.01	-0.04	9	41%	-0.01	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.00
Andre Miller	-0.02	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	9	62%	0.03	2	-0.04	8	100%	0.03
Earl Boykins	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.13	-0.00	-0.07	7	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	-0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13	-0.18	-0.01	-0.06	18	42%	-0.05	6	-0.08	7	86%	0.01

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	4	60%	0.01	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Casey Jacobsen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	-0.00	0.02	6	75%	0.02	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Lee Nailon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	17	44%	0.02	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.02	4	75%	0.02	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
Jackson Vroman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.03	4	60%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
George Lynch	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David West	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Dan Dickau	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	0.04	19	50%	-0.03	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.11	-0.01	-0.05	7	19%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Bostjan Nachbar	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	6	37%	-0.04	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.01
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.20	-0.02	-0.04	14	21%	-0.12	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	1.7	26.8	14.8	29.1	1.8	29.2	127.2
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +35.6%

DEN +4.9%

DEN +2.4%

DEN +6.3%

DEN +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	NOH	NBA	DEN	NOH	NBA
this game	14.1	16.1	15.5	98.9	86.5	104.0
season	14.8	16.5		103.8	97.7
opponent	15.7	15.6		105.2	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.3	12.1	13.0	17.4	14.1
NOH	16.3	17.9	15.3	14.7	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andre Miller	64	64	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.01	17	-6	23	13.2	16.0	-2.78	15.8	16.6	-0.81
Carmelo Anthony	72	71	0.49	0.01	0.49	-0.00	17	-6	23	13.9	14.7	-0.79	15.4	17.9	-2.47
Nene	50	51	0.47	0.03	0.44	-0.18	22	-11	33	12.8	15.6	-2.82	16.4	15.7	0.68
Marcus Camby	55	55	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.10	17	-6	23	12.7	16.0	-3.38	16.3	15.7	0.60
DerMarr Johnson	53	54	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.02	9	2	7	13.4	15.0	-1.58	15.4	16.9	-1.47
Earl Boykins	38	38	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.15	1	10	-9	14.7	13.7	1.03	17.7	15.0	2.70
Eduardo Najera	40	41	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.27	-6	17	-23	16.0	12.7	3.38	15.7	16.3	-0.60
Kenyon Martin	45	45	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.35	-11	22	-33	15.6	12.8	2.82	15.7	16.4	-0.68
Wesley Person	40	41	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.29	-9	20	-29	16.3	12.5	3.77	15.0	16.8	-1.84
Bryon Russell	18	20	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.07	-2	13	-15	14.0	14.1	-0.12	20.0	15.0	4.99

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
P.J. Brown	33	32	0.03	-0.53	0.57	-0.23	9	-20	29	16.6	15.8	0.84	14.2	14.0	0.23
George Lynch	13	12	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.21	7	-18	25	10.5	16.9	-6.38	17.7	13.6	4.18
Casey Jacobsen	53	53	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.42	14	-25	39	15.4	16.9	-1.55	15.3	12.5	2.82
Lee Nailon	52	50	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.01	-1	-10	9	16.8	15.1	1.73	14.1	14.1	-0.07
Chris Andersen	45	44	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.46	15	-26	41	15.4	16.6	-1.27	15.9	12.5	3.34
Jackson Vroman	29	29	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.14	-4	-7	3	15.1	16.5	-1.41	13.8	14.2	-0.43
David West	34	34	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	0.20	-16	5	-21	16.4	15.9	0.47	14.2	14.0	0.17
Dan Dickau	79	76	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.06	-14	3	-17	16.3	15.0	1.28	14.2	13.5	0.71
Jamaal Magloire	48	49	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	0.17	-22	11	-33	16.9	15.2	1.73	12.6	15.7	-3.06
Bostjan Nachbar	34	35	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	0.13	-21	10	-31	16.6	15.7	0.88	12.7	14.9	-2.19
J.R. Smith	60	61	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	0.13	-22	11	-33	16.4	15.5	0.84	12.8	16.4	-3.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.39,0.35,0.32,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.33,0.4,0.35,0.37,0.34,0.26,0.24,0.23,0.2,0.16,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 112, NOH 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.41,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.36,0.34,0.25,0.18,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.6%
IND 100, UTA 75	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.36,0.4,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.27,0.29,0.25,0.18,0.18,0.12,0.16,0.12,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.5%
NYK 118, CHH 99	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.37,0.36,0.27,0.24,0.2,0.14,0.2,0.19,0.14,0.08,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.5%