NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	113		Excitement	5.5 [750]		MVP	Chauncey Billups (DET): +23.3%
Toronto Raptors	103		Comeback	1.0 [611]		LVP	Donyell Marshall (TOR): -11.8%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.21,0.21,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.19	0.08	0.04	11	93%	0.28	1	-0.05	6	100%	0.01
Rasheed Wallace	0.14	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.07	0.06	-0.01	21	54%	0.14	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Richard Hamilton	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.03,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.01	10	73%	0.17	4	-0.11	6	100%	0.02
Tayshaun Prince	0.05	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	-0.01	14	60%	0.09	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Antonio McDyess	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.05	0.02	-0.05	7	43%	0.05	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.02	0.00	2	125%	0.07	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.01	10	64%	0.08	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Carlos Arroyo	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darko Milicic	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Morris Peterson	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.11,0.15,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.2	0.20	0.08	0.10	-0.03	16	67%	0.30	3	-0.10	1	100%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.02	-0.02	15	50%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Rose	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	-0.01	0.00	13	65%	0.08	1	-0.02	8	100%	0.05
Rafael Araujo	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Milt Palacio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	0.00	0.02	4	62%	-0.00	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.03	8	53%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	-0.01	12	53%	-0.02	0	0.00	10	80%	0.02
Pape Sow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.11	-0.00	-0.09	4	25%	-0.02	2	-0.01	4	25%	-0.01
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	6	0%	-0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.7	30.0	17.8	25.4	1.8	38.4	138.2
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +55.5%

TOR -13.1%

DET +19.4%

TOR -13.8%

DET +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	TOR	NBA	DET	TOR	NBA
this game	15.8	15.5	15.5	124.2	110.8	104.0
season	16.7	15.1		103.5	104.8
opponent	15.4	15.9		106.8	98.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.9	18.0	13.6	16.0	15.8
TOR	15.4	15.5	15.2	16.0	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasheed Wallace	75	78	0.78	-0.28	1.07	0.05	25	-15	40	15.7	16.4	-0.72	16.2	12.1	4.13
Chauncey Billups	72	72	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.09	16	-6	22	15.4	17.1	-1.67	15.7	14.8	0.93
Richard Hamilton	84	86	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.08	11	-1	12	15.5	18.7	-3.18	15.7	13.9	1.81
Tayshaun Prince	76	77	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.06	13	-3	16	15.5	17.4	-1.94	16.2	12.2	4.03
Antonio McDyess	33	32	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.05	7	3	4	17.5	14.8	2.72	17.8	14.3	3.48
Ben Wallace	72	73	0.17	0.33	-0.17	-0.04	7	3	4	15.2	17.9	-2.67	14.6	18.8	-4.23
Lindsey Hunter	23	24	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.04	0	10	-10	17.7	15.1	2.62	15.7	15.5	0.19
Carlos Arroyo	3	4	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.20	-7	17	-24	16.0	15.8	0.23	8.0	15.9	-7.87
Carlos Delfino	3	4	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.20	-7	17	-24	16.0	15.8	0.23	8.0	15.9	-7.87
Darko Milicic	3	3	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.20	-7	17	-24	16.0	15.8	0.23	6.0	15.8	-9.84
Darvin Ham	11	12	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.22	-8	18	-26	17.2	15.6	1.59	11.1	16.2	-5.10

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pape Sow	28	25	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.10	2	-12	14	14.1	16.1	-2.03	15.5	15.9	-0.36
Rafael Araujo	37	36	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.13	2	-12	14	14.3	16.3	-2.00	14.0	16.9	-2.95
Morris Peterson	73	72	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.20	1	-11	12	15.4	16.1	-0.73	15.1	18.4	-3.27
Rafer Alston	59	59	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.03	-6	-4	-2	16.1	14.6	1.53	15.5	16.3	-0.82
Milt Palacio	34	32	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.18	-4	-6	2	14.6	16.1	-1.53	16.3	15.5	0.82
Donyell Marshall	42	43	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.12	-6	-4	-2	16.1	15.0	1.08	17.3	14.5	2.80
Jalen Rose	77	76	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.01	-13	3	-16	16.1	12.6	3.58	15.9	15.2	0.69
Matt Bonner	36	34	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.20	-8	-2	-6	14.5	16.2	-1.63	17.0	15.1	1.90
Chris Bosh	79	78	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.05	-18	8	-26	16.3	11.3	4.99	15.9	15.2	0.64

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.44,0.34,0.29,0.24,0.24,0.33,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.27,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.27,0.3,0.15,0.34,0.34,0.43,0.43,0.23,0.14,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 100, CHA 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.39,0.38,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.28,0.29,0.34,0.33,0.39,0.33,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.25,0.32,0.33,0.38,0.38,0.28,0.27,0.33,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.29,0.24,0.27,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.03,0.07,0,0,0	93.2%
IND 89, DET 84	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.29,0.33,0.39,0.29,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.39,0.3,0.29,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.25,0.34,0.34,0.43,0.52,0.37,0.14,0.24,0.14,0.14,0.04,0.03,0.02,0	93.1%
PHI 94, TOR 84	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.5,0.44,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.32,0.29,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.26,0.36,0.36,0.27,0.29,0.37,0.36,0.48,0.36,0.45,0.35,0.31,0.37,0.3,0.32,0.38,0.3,0.33,0.24,0.15,0.06,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.06,0.07,0.01,0	92.8%