NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	111		Excitement	3.3 [1166]		MVP	Damon Jones (MIA): +10.8%
New Orleans Hornets	99		Comeback	1.0 [640]		LVP	Jamaal Magloire (NOH): -8.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damon Jones	0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.03	0.01	16	69%	0.12	3	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0.08	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.00	-0.04	17	67%	0.11	4	-0.04	15	73%	-0.01
Shaquille O'Neal	0.06	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.11	0.00	0.06	21	69%	0.12	3	-0.06	7	57%	-0.02
Michael Doleac	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	40%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shandon Anderson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	4	25%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0.01	1	33%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Eddie Jones	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.09	0.00	0.03	14	68%	0.06	1	-0.00	3	100%	0.01
Speedy Claxton	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.02	11	69%	0.04	2	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Dan Dickau	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.07	0.00	0.06	8	70%	0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Casey Jacobsen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.08	0.00	0.07	5	100%	0.02	2	-0.02	3	100%	-0.00
Jackson Vroman	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.04	6	65%	-0.02	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.02
Lee Nailon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.08	-0.00	-0.05	7	44%	0.02	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00
J.R. Smith	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	-0.00	-0.04	6	42%	0.03	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Bostjan Nachbar	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	4	40%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
David West	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.00	5	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	-0.01	6	29%	-0.04	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.9	0.7	30.6	16.3	25.5	2.5	28.5	128.0
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +34.8%

NOH -7.9%

MIA +16.5%

MIA +7.5%

NOH -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	NOH	NBA	MIA	NOH	NBA
this game	15.9	15.6	15.5	122.0	107.6	104.0
season	15.7	16.5		107.9	97.7
opponent	15.7	15.5		105.2	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.4	15.0	15.3	16.9	15.9
NOH	16.3	16.3	17.4	12.6	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Jones	45	45	0.53	-0.03	0.55	-0.21	25	-13	38	14.9	16.9	-1.98	17.7	13.5	4.24
Shaquille O'Neal	67	68	0.47	0.03	0.44	-0.03	17	-5	22	16.0	15.6	0.39	16.4	13.1	3.30
Damon Jones	71	72	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.10	11	1	10	15.9	16.0	-0.18	15.8	14.7	1.04
Dwyane Wade	68	67	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.04	11	1	10	16.3	14.8	1.51	16.1	14.2	1.87
Udonis Haslem	54	57	0.29	0.21	0.07	-0.04	11	1	10	16.4	15.2	1.17	15.9	15.0	0.96
Michael Doleac	37	35	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.19	1	11	-10	15.2	16.4	-1.17	15.0	15.9	-0.96
Alonzo Mourning	24	24	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.17	-5	17	-22	15.6	16.0	-0.39	13.1	16.4	-3.30
Shandon Anderson	46	48	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.30	-11	23	-34	16.5	15.3	1.14	13.8	17.5	-3.71

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jackson Vroman	10	8	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.18	6	-18	24	9.7	16.3	-6.58	16.1	15.9	0.23
Dan Dickau	44	41	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.21	5	-17	22	13.4	17.5	-4.13	16.4	15.5	0.83
Lee Nailon	56	55	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.22	4	-16	20	14.3	17.6	-3.27	16.5	15.1	1.42
Casey Jacobsen	47	46	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.16	2	-14	16	13.6	17.6	-4.07	16.5	15.3	1.28
P.J. Brown	48	49	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.06	-2	-10	8	14.4	16.9	-2.53	15.9	16.0	-0.07
Chris Andersen	50	48	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.24	4	-16	20	14.1	17.3	-3.17	16.2	15.6	0.63
Jamaal Magloire	42	43	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.09	-16	4	-20	17.3	14.1	3.17	15.6	16.2	-0.63
David West	34	34	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.09	-16	4	-20	19.0	13.6	5.45	15.9	15.9	-0.00
J.R. Smith	45	45	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	0.02	-14	2	-16	17.6	13.6	4.07	15.3	16.5	-1.28
Bostjan Nachbar	36	36	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.07	-16	4	-20	17.6	14.3	3.27	15.1	16.5	-1.42
Speedy Claxton	48	50	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.06	-17	5	-22	17.5	13.4	4.13	15.5	16.4	-0.83

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.27,0.24,0.17,0.2,0.22,0.16,0.18,0.13,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 116, DEN 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.5,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.26,0.21,0.25,0.18,0.23,0.14,0.1,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.6%
PHI 101, NYK 72	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.31,0.35,0.32,0.24,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.5%
NYK 118, CHH 99	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.37,0.36,0.27,0.24,0.2,0.14,0.2,0.19,0.14,0.08,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.5%