NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	99		Excitement	10.7 [44]		MVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): +38.7%
Detroit Pistons	105		Comeback	4.1 [585]		LVP	Antoine Walker (BOS): -26.1%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0.39	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.01,0.18,0.07,0.39	0.14	0.24	-0.00	23	62%	0.39	0	0.00	6	100%	0.05
Mark Blount	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.02	0.00	8	56%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kendrick Perkins	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	-0.01	5	67%	0.01	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Marcus Banks	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.04	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tony Allen	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	4	30%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Delonte West	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	-0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	10	50%	-0.01	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Davis	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.06,0.06,0,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.01	-0.15	-0.03	12	58%	0.05	3	-0.19	2	0%	-0.05
Antoine Walker	-0.26	0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.22,-0.25,-0.25,-0.2,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.26	-0.17	-0.10	-0.01	21	34%	-0.16	4	-0.10	2	50%	-0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.02,-0.02,0.25	0.25	0.10	0.18	0.03	21	62%	0.30	1	-0.05	8	87%	0.11
Ben Wallace	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.12,0.12	0.12	-0.03	0.14	-0.01	6	44%	0.12	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.06
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.06	0.03	-0.04	14	47%	0.01	2	-0.01	8	87%	0.02
Carlos Delfino	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	7	50%	-0.00	1	-0.06	2	0%	-0.07
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	4	0%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	0.01	-0.10	0.03	16	53%	-0.03	1	-0.09	6	100%	0.04
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.22,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.06	-0.11	-0.01	16	54%	-0.06	4	-0.10	9	89%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	25.8	2.4	28.0	15.8	30.5	3.4	36.2	2.6	16.0	160.7
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	1.9	17.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS -11.9%

DET +26.9%

DET +32.7%

DET +6.4%

BOS -4.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	DET	NBA	BOS	DET	NBA
this game	14.9	18.2	15.5	103.1	109.4	104.0
season	14.4	16.7		104.7	103.5
opponent	15.9	16.0		98.9	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
BOS	17.2	13.1	13.3	15.5	16.1	14.9
DET	16.2	21.1	17.2	21.6	12.6	18.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Allen	26	28	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.07	-1	-5	4	15.3	14.8	0.57	17.4	18.5	-1.09
Kendrick Perkins	27	23	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.06	0	-6	6	12.5	15.9	-3.35	21.0	17.3	3.68
Delonte West	18	17	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.07	-1	-5	4	12.8	15.4	-2.65	21.9	17.4	4.48
Marcus Banks	26	26	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.16	-1	-5	4	12.5	15.8	-3.38	20.7	17.3	3.47
Raef LaFrentz	61	62	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.23	-1	-5	4	15.4	14.2	1.19	17.2	19.9	-2.70
Mark Blount	33	33	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.13	-5	-1	-4	14.2	15.3	-1.09	20.4	17.0	3.39
Gary Payton	70	70	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.16	-5	-1	-4	15.8	12.5	3.38	17.3	20.7	-3.47
Paul Pierce	78	79	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.25	-5	-1	-4	15.4	12.8	2.65	17.4	21.9	-4.48
Antoine Walker	71	73	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.25	-6	0	-6	15.8	12.4	3.36	17.3	21.0	-3.68
Ricky Davis	70	69	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.37	-5	-1	-4	14.8	15.3	-0.57	18.3	17.9	0.38

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Richard Hamilton	89	90	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.31	9	-3	12	17.8	22.9	-5.03	15.1	12.7	2.41
Tayshaun Prince	87	86	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.36	5	1	4	18.0	20.0	-1.99	15.3	11.9	3.38
Rasheed Wallace	81	82	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.14	8	-2	10	17.6	21.4	-3.80	15.0	14.3	0.75
Chauncey Billups	82	82	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.19	6	0	6	17.6	21.6	-3.95	15.0	14.4	0.67
Ben Wallace	81	79	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.23	3	3	0	17.4	22.4	-4.98	15.0	14.5	0.48
Antonio McDyess	30	31	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.27	1	5	-4	21.9	16.5	5.38	14.4	15.2	-0.75
Carlos Arroyo	19	18	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.18	-5	11	-16	22.5	17.1	5.40	13.9	15.2	-1.28
Lindsey Hunter	2	2	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.04	2	4	-2	17.0	18.2	-1.22	13.5	15.0	-1.46
Carlos Delfino	9	10	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.04	1	5	-4	20.0	18.0	1.99	11.9	15.3	-3.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.63,0.58,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.41,0.31,0.29,0.39,0.42,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.35,0.29,0.34,0.24,0.26,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.48,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.72,0.75,0.84,0.85,0.72,0.54,0.75,0.72,0.57,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 89, ORL 91	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.53,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.53,0.69,0.66,0.69,0.92,0.98,0.83,0.46,0.61,0.55,0.32,0.58,1	90.1%
MIL 86, CHA 87	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.44,0.36,0.33,0.5,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.36,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.44,0.5,0.38,0.38,0.47,0.58,0.64,0.54,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.77,0.73,0.46,0.39,0.55,0.43,0.58,1	89.0%
MIN 92, DEN 94	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.63,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.37,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.54,0.43,0.52,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.6,0.72,0.62,0.72,0.85,0.85,0.54,0.69,0.72,0.57,0.58,1	88.9%