NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	97		Excitement	7.4 [380]		MVP	Primoz Brezec (CHA): +15.5%
Charlotte Bobcats	102		Comeback	7.2 [374]		LVP	DeShawn Stevenson (ORL): -19.5%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hedo Turkoglu	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.04	-0.01	7	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	8	62%	-0.05
Mario Kasun	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stacey Augmon	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01	0.03	-0.03	0.00	18	58%	0.05	2	-0.06	7	100%	0.05
Tony Battie	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	8	29%	-0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Jameer Nelson	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	16	49%	-0.00	2	-0.03	5	80%	0.01
Kelvin Cato	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	3	40%	-0.03	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Dwight Howard	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08	-0.00	-0.05	0.03	12	70%	0.10	5	-0.18	6	83%	0.01
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.20	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2	-0.08	-0.09	0.02	10	32%	-0.16	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.05

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Primoz Brezec	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.05	0.11	0.00	9	73%	0.20	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02
Bernard Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.06	0.09	-0.00	7	75%	0.19	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.04
Brevin Knight	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.11	0.11	0.02	0.11	0.02	15	54%	0.13	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.03
Matt Carroll	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	9	55%	0.03	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Jason Kapono	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	7	44%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Hart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.08,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	5	56%	0.02	1	-0.04	6	67%	-0.01
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	9	36%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Melvin Ely	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	-0.00	4	25%	-0.05	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Emeka Okafor	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.15	-0.01	-0.00	18	38%	-0.10	2	-0.06	9	33%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	1.7	34.2	14.7	28.2	2.7	37.2	143.8
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHA +44.8%

ORL -5.4%

CHA +5.7%

CHA +2.6%

CHA +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	CHA	NBA	ORL	CHA	NBA
this game	13.7	15.1	15.5	98.0	101.0	104.0
season	14.3	15.5		102.9	99.0
opponent	15.1	15.5		105.4	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	13.1	11.4	15.5	15.0	13.7
CHA	14.6	17.4	14.0	14.4	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mario Kasun	2	2	0.06	-0.56	0.63	0.01	2	-7	9	8.0	13.8	-5.81	12.5	15.1	-2.64
Stacey Augmon	6	6	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-4	3	19.2	13.3	5.82	10.0	15.4	-5.41
Tony Battie	49	52	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.18	4	-9	13	12.6	14.7	-2.11	16.3	13.8	2.55
Jameer Nelson	93	96	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.24	-2	-3	1	13.4	18.5	-5.11	15.4	9.0	6.41
Hedo Turkoglu	52	55	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.13	-7	2	-9	14.5	12.8	1.65	15.1	15.1	-0.08
Kelvin Cato	54	51	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.17	-7	2	-9	14.6	12.6	1.93	14.7	15.5	-0.85
DeShawn Stevenson	71	71	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.39	0	-5	5	13.2	15.0	-1.87	14.5	16.4	-1.91
Dwight Howard	75	78	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.32	-5	0	-5	13.3	14.8	-1.44	14.9	15.9	-1.01
Grant Hill	75	75	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.32	-5	0	-5	13.6	14.0	-0.40	15.7	13.5	2.19

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Hart	59	58	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.36	13	-8	21	13.9	16.7	-2.74	15.3	11.4	3.85
Brevin Knight	66	65	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.36	8	-3	11	15.3	14.7	0.62	13.2	14.7	-1.49
Emeka Okafor	89	88	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.37	4	1	3	15.8	10.1	5.68	13.3	16.5	-3.20
Melvin Ely	30	30	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.16	8	-3	11	13.4	15.8	-2.40	15.9	12.7	3.21
Bernard Robinson	37	37	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.24	1	4	-3	14.8	15.2	-0.44	15.4	12.7	2.77
Jason Kapono	45	43	0.18	0.32	-0.13	-0.05	8	-3	11	15.2	15.0	0.24	13.7	13.7	-0.08
Primoz Brezec	83	80	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.19	-2	7	-9	15.0	15.6	-0.64	13.2	15.6	-2.33
Matt Carroll	57	55	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.12	-3	8	-11	15.3	14.8	0.56	13.0	14.5	-1.49
Keith Bogans	39	39	-0.32	0.82	-1.14	0.03	-12	17	-29	16.2	14.4	1.82	11.5	15.1	-3.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.31,0.26,0.21,0.15,0.18,0.13,0.12,0.2,0.23,0.21,0.28,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.57,0.75,0.81,0.83,0.88,0.83,0.85,0.79,0.77,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 106, LAC 112	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.43,0.34,0.29,0.33,0.35,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.17,0.14,0.17,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.21,0.25,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.71,0.77,0.64,0.76,0.83,0.95,0.81,0.94,0.99,1	92.8%
OKC 90, IND 93	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.43,0.38,0.51,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.47,0.4,0.31,0.3,0.23,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.18,0.2,0.21,0.28,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.32,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.52,0.62,0.66,0.74,0.83,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.95,0.96,0.85,0.68,0.92,1	92.6%
DET 93, DAL 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.54,0.47,0.45,0.41,0.33,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.23,0.19,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.27,0.27,0.29,0.32,0.35,0.36,0.33,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.47,0.48,0.5,0.66,0.7,0.77,0.77,0.64,0.76,0.83,0.8,0.95,0.94,0.98,1	92.4%