NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	82		Excitement	7.1 [434]		MVP	Mike Bibby (SAC): +46.9%
Sacramento Kings	85		Comeback	1.6 [783]		LVP	Peja Stojakovic (SAC): -23.6%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brian Cardinal	0.21	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.21,0.21	0.10	0.12	0.01	6	100%	0.25	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Earl Watson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,0.05	-0.01	0.04	-0.02	9	45%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Andre Emmett	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Williams	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	8	41%	-0.01	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Mike Miller	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	9	50%	0.03	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Lorenzen Wright	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	11	48%	0.00	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Jake Tsakalidis	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	2	50%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Humphrey	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	8	50%	0.02	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	-0.17	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.17,-0.17	-0.08	-0.07	0.01	10	32%	-0.14	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
James Posey	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.21	-0.04	-0.16	0.00	14	39%	-0.18	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Bibby	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.47	0.47	0.00	0.47	0.00	22	52%	0.52	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.04
Kevin Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	7	44%	-0.01	1	-0.00	4	100%	0.03
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Ostertag	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	11	33%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Darius Songaila	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.11	-0.02	-0.02	14	36%	-0.01	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Brian Skinner	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.12	-0.10	-0.01	7	41%	-0.11	3	-0.10	8	62%	-0.06
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.24	-0.24	-0.07	-0.18	-0.02	18	46%	-0.16	3	-0.07	5	80%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.7	2.6	32.4	15.5	25.5	2.6	33.3	134.7
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +17.2%

SAC +17.3%

SAC +14.3%

SAC +1.0%

SAC +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	SAC	NBA	MEM	SAC	NBA
this game	16.8	16.3	15.5	93.2	98.8	104.0
season	16.4	14.7		103.7	108.1
opponent	15.6	15.5		106.4	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	16.7	18.1	15.0	17.6	16.8
SAC	16.0	17.0	14.3	18.4	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andre Emmett	8	8	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.06	1	-4	5	17.9	16.7	1.21	19.5	16.0	3.50
Ryan Humphrey	27	25	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.11	0	-3	3	15.1	17.5	-2.40	16.1	16.4	-0.35
Jake Tsakalidis	26	24	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.13	-2	-1	-1	17.4	16.5	0.87	18.0	15.7	2.32
Lorenzen Wright	51	51	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.07	-5	2	-7	16.6	17.0	-0.44	15.7	17.2	-1.52
Earl Watson	42	42	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.39	6	-9	15	16.8	16.7	0.12	16.9	15.8	1.13
Jason Williams	46	44	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.02	-9	6	-15	16.7	16.8	-0.12	15.8	16.9	-1.13
James Posey	43	42	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.32	1	-4	5	16.9	16.7	0.22	16.5	16.2	0.29
Brian Cardinal	59	58	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.29	-2	-1	-1	17.0	16.3	0.69	16.3	16.4	-0.15
Shane Battier	66	65	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.37	-1	-2	1	17.2	15.5	1.64	16.9	14.7	2.19
Mike Miller	72	71	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.30	-4	1	-5	16.6	17.7	-1.19	15.4	20.7	-5.34

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darius Songaila	66	68	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.40	4	-1	5	16.2	16.7	-0.55	16.0	19.3	-3.27
Mike Bibby	81	82	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.35	5	-2	7	16.1	19.4	-3.26	16.8	16.3	0.47
Maurice Evans	72	72	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.43	2	1	1	16.2	16.9	-0.72	16.2	19.4	-3.18
Eddie House	5	7	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.43	1	2	-1	19.4	16.1	3.26	14.0	17.0	-3.01
Peja Stojakovic	82	85	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.45	-3	6	-9	16.3	16.5	-0.18	16.8	17.3	-0.58
Greg Ostertag	9	8	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.00	5	-2	7	18.0	16.1	1.87	19.7	16.5	3.27
Kevin Martin	18	19	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.06	7	-4	11	16.8	16.2	0.64	19.1	16.1	2.91
Brian Skinner	72	73	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.02	-1	4	-5	16.1	17.3	-1.15	17.1	15.1	1.98
Corliss Williamson	25	26	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.08	-5	8	-13	16.6	16.2	0.39	17.5	16.5	1.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.49,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.79,0.77,0.76,0.77,0.85,0.86,0.88,0.84,0.84,0.82,0.83,0.92,0.86,0.8,0.88,0.89,0.89,0.79,0.85,0.87,0.88,0.8,0.77,0.64,0.76,0.93,0.9,0.84,0.84,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 96, SAC 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.62,0.64,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.66,0.73,0.74,0.8,0.79,0.76,0.82,0.87,0.84,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.73,0.78,0.81,0.84,0.8,0.73,0.79,0.86,0.85,0.85,0.85,0.82,0.83,0.88,0.69,0.71,0.78,0.81,0.88,0.86,0.77,1	93.6%
MIA 92, LAL 100	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.71,0.73,0.73,0.77,0.77,0.82,0.82,0.82,0.82,0.88,0.92,0.91,0.91,0.91,0.92,0.91,0.85,0.84,0.85,0.82,0.85,0.85,0.78,0.79,0.71,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.91,0.95,0.96,0.9,0.91,1	93.5%
CHA 107, NYK 110	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.56,0.48,0.43,0.49,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.58,0.63,0.65,0.71,0.66,0.61,0.69,0.69,0.79,0.8,0.8,0.86,0.86,0.79,0.83,0.88,0.81,0.88,0.88,0.94,0.87,0.89,0.95,0.9,0.82,0.71,0.68,0.64,0.84,0.91,0.9,0.97,0.86,0.84,1	93.2%