NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	105		Excitement	1.9 [1297]		MVP	Steve Francis (ORL): +13.7%
New Jersey Nets	81		Comeback	1.0 [638]		LVP	Jason Kidd (NJN): -7.4%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steve Francis	0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.11	0.02	-0.00	12	79%	0.14	2	-0.00	9	78%	-0.01
Jameer Nelson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.11	0.00	0.03	9	85%	0.10	2	-0.02	8	87%	0.01
Kelvin Cato	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.10	0.00	0.04	9	76%	0.06	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	85%	0.03	2	-0.01	7	71%	0.00
Grant Hill	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.04	10	41%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Pat Garrity	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	7	44%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Tony Battie	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	4	50%	0.00	3	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.09	0.00	-0.06	6	29%	-0.03	2	-0.00	2	100%	0.01

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Clifford Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	-0.00	-0.00	6	67%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zoran Planinic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	58%	-0.00	1	0.00	4	50%	0.00
Jabari Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	4	25%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Buford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	5	20%	-0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ron Mercer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	11	45%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nenad Krstic	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	5	50%	-0.01	1	-0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Travis Best	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	0.00	0.04	4	67%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Jason Collins	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	4	56%	-0.01	1	-0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	5	20%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Scalabrine	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.09	0.00	-0.04	9	26%	-0.04	1	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Vince Carter	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.09	-0.00	-0.03	16	54%	0.01	6	-0.06	5	100%	0.00
Jason Kidd	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	0.01	10	25%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	1.0	29.4	15.4	28.2	1.8	26.2	125.2
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +45.4%

ORL +3.8%

NJN -0.8%

ORL +1.5%

ORL +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	NJN	NBA	ORL	NJN	NBA
this game	15.4	17.3	15.5	119.3	92.0	104.0
season	14.3	16.0		102.9	99.2
opponent	15.6	15.5		101.6	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	12.7	16.9	14.7	17.8	15.4
NJN	17.8	19.1	16.0	16.5	17.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Francis	62	62	0.51	-0.01	0.53	-0.31	28	-4	32	14.0	18.9	-4.93	17.5	16.8	0.78
Jameer Nelson	74	75	0.46	0.04	0.43	-0.27	25	-1	26	15.3	15.9	-0.53	17.9	14.2	3.62
Grant Hill	50	50	0.39	0.11	0.29	-0.46	29	-5	34	14.6	16.5	-1.92	18.8	15.3	3.52
Kelvin Cato	41	42	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.34	25	-1	26	14.4	16.3	-1.91	19.3	15.5	3.81
Dwight Howard	39	42	0.31	0.19	0.11	-0.25	19	5	14	15.5	15.3	0.14	19.5	15.3	4.17
Pat Garrity	57	55	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.08	4	20	-16	15.8	14.7	1.03	15.2	20.8	-5.55
Tony Battie	25	25	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.08	1	23	-22	15.4	15.4	-0.01	14.7	18.4	-3.69
Hedo Turkoglu	48	47	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.19	-3	27	-30	17.1	13.3	3.82	16.0	18.8	-2.74
DeShawn Stevenson	25	25	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.20	-6	30	-36	17.1	14.7	2.39	16.0	17.8	-1.79

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Scalabrine	25	25	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-28	32	16.4	17.7	-1.28	17.5	14.6	2.89
Zoran Planinic	22	22	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.12	4	-28	32	16.7	17.5	-0.79	17.3	14.8	2.55
Jabari Smith	24	24	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.06	2	-26	28	17.0	17.5	-0.49	17.0	14.8	2.24
Ron Mercer	39	38	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.08	-1	-23	22	15.2	19.0	-3.89	15.9	15.0	0.90
Travis Best	41	40	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.12	0	-24	24	17.1	17.5	-0.46	17.4	13.7	3.74
Rodney Buford	28	28	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.03	-5	-19	14	17.9	17.0	0.90	16.0	15.1	0.81
Jacque Vaughn	33	33	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.21	-14	-10	-4	17.7	17.1	0.65	14.2	16.2	-2.01
Clifford Robinson	27	27	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.11	-14	-10	-4	17.3	17.3	0.02	15.4	15.4	0.05
Nenad Krstic	35	34	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.34	-23	-1	-22	19.1	16.2	2.93	14.6	15.9	-1.29
Jason Collins	47	48	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.26	-21	-3	-18	17.7	16.9	0.73	13.7	17.4	-3.65
Jason Kidd	54	55	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.34	-24	0	-24	17.6	16.8	0.85	14.6	16.8	-2.16
Vince Carter	65	66	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	0.29	-28	4	-32	17.5	16.8	0.73	14.5	18.0	-3.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.33,0.3,0.33,0.35,0.3,0.23,0.19,0.22,0.18,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.18,0.13,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 126, NYK 103	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.36,0.4,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.28,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.29,0.24,0.2,0.21,0.22,0.14,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.8%
WAS 112, ATL 86	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.39,0.34,0.3,0.37,0.31,0.29,0.25,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.5%
LAL 107, OKC 89	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.31,0.25,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.23,0.21,0.24,0.2,0.19,0.15,0.17,0.15,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.5%