NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	99		Excitement	7.6 [333]		MVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): +34.1%
San Antonio Spurs	102		Comeback	3.2 [579]		LVP	Kirk Hinrich (CHI): -26.5%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyson Chandler	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.02	0.09	0.00	4	67%	0.11	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Othella Harrington	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.01	-0.00	9	77%	0.12	1	-0.02	8	75%	-0.01
Adrian Griffin	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	1	100%	0.03	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Ben Gordon	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.17,-0.17,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0	-0.04	0.07	0.03	15	56%	0.11	4	-0.11	6	83%	0.04
Eric Piatkowski	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	2	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Andres Nocioni	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.01	6	72%	0.05	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.01
Eddy Curry	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	7	53%	0.01	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.03
Chris Duhon	-0.21	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.09	-0.12	-0.00	7	43%	-0.06	4	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Davis	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.09,-0.21	0.01	-0.23	-0.01	10	60%	-0.03	2	-0.18	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	-0.27	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.27	-0.16	-0.13	-0.02	10	30%	-0.19	5	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.34	0.34	0.08	0.25	-0.01	20	66%	0.40	3	-0.05	7	100%	0.07
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.05	0.00	2	117%	0.14	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.01	6	58%	0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	14	54%	0.07	3	-0.07	7	100%	0.02
Devin Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	44%	-0.00	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	4	44%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	4	25%	-0.04	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Tony Massenburg	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	3	12%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.11	-0.02	-0.02	8	12%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.04,-0.03,0.04,-0.13,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.02	-0.20	-0.00	18	60%	0.07	5	-0.29	6	83%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	2.4	34.4	16.7	23.2	1.7	41.0	146.5
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +37.4%

CHI -12.8%

SAS +9.3%

SAS +13.9%

SAS +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	SAS	NBA	CHI	SAS	NBA
this game	14.0	16.3	15.5	105.3	106.2	104.0
season	15.1	16.3		100.1	105.8
opponent	15.6	15.4		98.4	98.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	13.1	14.5	13.6	14.8	14.0
SAS	16.2	18.2	17.0	14.0	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Othella Harrington	40	40	0.14	-0.64	0.77	-0.07	7	-10	17	14.0	14.0	-0.04	16.1	16.4	-0.29
Ben Gordon	63	64	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.48	10	-13	23	14.1	13.7	0.39	16.3	16.2	0.11
Eddy Curry	30	31	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.00	-7	4	-11	14.5	13.7	0.78	16.7	16.1	0.62
Andres Nocioni	71	72	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.25	1	-4	5	13.9	14.3	-0.35	16.0	17.1	-1.06
Adrian Griffin	15	15	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	0.00	-8	5	-13	12.3	14.3	-2.06	19.1	15.8	3.29
Eric Piatkowski	8	7	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.07	-11	8	-19	12.5	14.1	-1.64	20.9	15.9	4.92
Kirk Hinrich	50	54	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.30	0	-3	3	13.7	14.4	-0.73	14.5	18.6	-4.05
Antonio Davis	65	65	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.37	0	-3	3	13.9	14.1	-0.20	16.5	15.9	0.53
Tyson Chandler	47	51	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.30	-4	1	-5	14.8	13.2	1.62	16.2	16.4	-0.12
Chris Duhon	81	81	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.37	-3	0	-3	14.0	13.7	0.36	16.6	14.7	1.93

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	70	70	0.83	-0.33	1.15	0.30	18	-15	33	15.2	19.2	-3.93	14.3	13.2	1.01
Rasho Nesterovic	54	52	0.77	-0.27	1.05	0.54	8	-5	13	16.4	16.1	0.31	14.5	13.4	1.12
Tim Duncan	79	78	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.33	6	-3	9	15.7	19.2	-3.51	13.8	14.7	-0.90
Tony Parker	83	81	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.35	2	1	1	15.8	19.3	-3.49	14.4	11.5	2.86
Devin Brown	26	28	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.06	6	-3	9	14.8	16.8	-1.98	14.2	13.9	0.25
Beno Udrih	13	13	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.06	1	2	-1	19.3	15.8	3.49	11.5	14.4	-2.86
Bruce Bowen	68	67	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.43	-13	16	-29	16.7	15.3	1.42	13.5	15.3	-1.82
Brent Barry	30	26	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.12	-6	9	-15	18.1	15.5	2.63	13.2	14.3	-1.17
Robert Horry	43	43	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.24	3	0	3	17.3	15.5	1.75	14.3	13.8	0.47
Tony Massenburg	14	12	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	0.12	-10	13	-23	18.4	15.9	2.50	14.7	13.9	0.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.3,0.34,0.42,0.47,0.54,0.63,0.61,0.64,0.62,0.69,0.67,0.75,0.83,0.9,0.92,0.89,0.88,0.94,0.9,0.81,0.77,0.78,0.82,0.81,0.74,0.85,0.83,0.81,0.83,0.84,0.66,0.55,0.71,0.33,0.41,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 99, NYK 101	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.43,0.36,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.73,0.86,0.88,0.9,0.85,0.88,0.94,0.85,0.76,0.85,0.84,0.72,0.78,0.85,0.75,0.83,0.91,0.83,0.84,0.67,0.61,0.55,0.57,0.27,1	92.7%
CLE 94, IND 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.63,0.61,0.69,0.75,0.69,0.7,0.75,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.82,0.85,0.79,0.77,0.68,0.72,0.74,0.77,0.75,0.87,0.84,0.91,0.86,0.82,0.66,0.81,0.66,0.62,0.48,0.43,0.42,1	90.9%
MEM 101, MIN 106	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.37,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.41,0.52,0.58,0.77,0.84,0.8,0.79,0.8,0.79,0.73,0.76,0.84,0.83,0.81,0.79,0.78,0.85,0.87,0.78,0.75,0.86,0.88,0.79,0.85,0.78,0.69,0.64,0.57,0.58,1	90.7%