NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	97		Excitement	6.6 [530]		MVP	Fred Hoiberg (MIN): +24.2%
Minnesota Timberwolves	103		Comeback	13.6 [173]		LVP	Michael Redd (MIL): -26.8%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Desmond Mason	0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.04	-0.00	14	56%	0.09	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Dan Gadzuric	0.05	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.08	-0.02	0.01	10	73%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Zaza Pachulia	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.03	0.00	3	50%	0.05	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Mo Williams	-0.04	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04	0.00	-0.05	-0.01	20	51%	-0.02	2	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Joe Smith	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05	0.01	-0.07	-0.01	9	57%	0.03	1	-0.07	3	67%	-0.02
Erick Strickland	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	-0.27	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.12,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.18,-0.22,-0.27	-0.10	-0.17	-0.01	21	46%	-0.15	3	-0.12	10	80%	-0.02

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Fred Hoiberg	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,0.03,0.16,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.05	0.19	0.01	6	69%	0.24	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.03
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.12	0.12	0.04	0.06	-0.01	15	69%	0.21	4	-0.09	6	83%	-0.00
Wally Szczerbiak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.13,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	-0.02	-0.01	22	58%	0.10	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Troy Hudson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.01	11	57%	0.04	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Mark Madsen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trenton Hassell	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	3	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	11	35%	-0.06	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Latrell Sprewell	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	13	38%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.5	31.2	16.4	22.6	2.5	31.9	131.3
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +43.9%

MIL -7.5%

MIL -2.5%

MIN +18.5%

MIL -2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	MIN	NBA	MIL	MIN	NBA
this game	16.8	15.8	15.5	110.2	115.7	104.0
season	16.0	15.8		104.4	106.2
opponent	15.9	15.0		104.6	107.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	18.3	16.3	16.0	16.7	16.8
MIN	17.7	15.7	16.7	13.3	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Gadzuric	54	54	0.38	-0.88	1.26	-0.26	22	-28	50	16.1	17.8	-1.68	16.4	14.7	1.76
Joe Smith	60	62	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.38	13	-19	32	16.1	18.2	-2.08	15.8	15.6	0.23
Desmond Mason	80	82	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.31	3	-9	12	16.3	22.0	-5.72	15.7	15.9	-0.11
Mo Williams	80	81	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.40	5	-11	16	16.6	18.4	-1.74	16.2	11.4	4.81
Michael Redd	82	84	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.33	-5	-1	-4	16.8	16.2	0.67	15.5	20.0	-4.50
Zaza Pachulia	25	26	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	0.19	-24	18	-42	19.3	15.8	3.47	15.8	15.7	0.02
Erick Strickland	22	20	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	0.07	-21	15	-36	19.1	16.0	3.06	15.1	15.9	-0.84
Toni Kukoc	37	36	-0.88	0.38	-1.25	-0.20	-23	17	-40	17.1	16.5	0.59	14.6	16.5	-1.96

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Fred Hoiberg	39	39	1.03	-0.53	1.56	0.33	24	-18	42	13.8	17.3	-3.44	17.2	16.4	0.78
Anthony Carter	51	50	1.01	-0.51	1.51	0.27	25	-19	44	15.1	16.6	-1.49	17.1	16.3	0.80
Wally Szczerbiak	64	63	0.82	-0.32	1.14	0.23	20	-14	34	15.7	15.9	-0.23	16.5	17.6	-1.18
Mark Madsen	36	35	0.73	-0.23	0.95	0.08	22	-16	38	15.2	16.1	-0.84	17.8	16.1	1.72
Kevin Garnett	71	69	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.41	-4	10	-14	15.7	15.8	-0.03	16.4	18.2	-1.80
Ervin Johnson	7	8	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.01	-2	8	-10	16.4	15.7	0.73	20.4	16.4	3.94
Latrell Sprewell	59	58	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.25	-14	20	-34	16.4	14.5	1.89	16.0	18.3	-2.23
Trenton Hassell	25	25	-0.32	0.82	-1.14	0.09	-14	20	-34	15.9	15.7	0.23	17.6	16.5	1.18
John Thomas	55	55	-0.34	0.84	-1.18	-0.11	-8	14	-22	16.7	14.2	2.46	16.6	17.1	-0.52
Troy Hudson	38	38	-0.51	1.01	-1.51	0.05	-19	25	-44	16.6	15.1	1.49	16.3	17.1	-0.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.33,0.29,0.27,0.28,0.34,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.56,0.56,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.33,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.24,0.27,0.18,0.07,0.14,0.23,0.26,0.15,0.22,0.18,0.14,0.2,0.23,0.41,0.53,0.46,0.62,0.71,0.9,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 99, MIL 108	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.47,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.45,0.39,0.37,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.3,0.33,0.23,0.14,0.13,0.11,0.06,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.23,0.34,0.4,0.47,0.68,0.79,0.94,0.98,1	91.5%
NOP 123, HOU 130	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.46,0.41,0.37,0.39,0.3,0.35,0.42,0.35,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.4,0.31,0.33,0.21,0.24,0.2,0.22,0.13,0.08,0.18,0.22,0.26,0.21,0.29,0.19,0.3,0.34,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.9,0.91,1	91.1%
ATL 85, DAL 95	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.28,0.29,0.38,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.2,0.22,0.16,0.21,0.26,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.18,0.13,0.19,0.47,0.59,0.78,0.75,0.71,0.98,1,1	90.8%