NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	103		Excitement	4.2 [997]		MVP	Antonio McDyess (DET): +20.0%
Portland Trail Blazers	93		Comeback	1.0 [637]		LVP	Shareef Abdur-Rahim (POR): -5.2%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio McDyess	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.14	0.05	-0.01	8	90%	0.20	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Richard Hamilton	0.10	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.03	-0.00	14	71%	0.15	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.00	-0.02	10	60%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.02	0.03	-0.03	11	46%	0.04	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Chauncey Billups	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	8	76%	0.07	3	-0.04	5	100%	0.01
Tayshaun Prince	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	16	53%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Horace Jenkins	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	1	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Ronald Dupree	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	3	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zach Randolph	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	15	53%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Viktor Khryapa	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Travis Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darius Miles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	56%	-0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Theo Ratliff	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	4	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	-0.01	7	57%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Richie Frahm	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ruben Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	8	67%	0.04	3	-0.06	5	40%	-0.02
Joel Przybilla	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.07	-0.01	-0.05	6	56%	0.01	3	-0.03	6	33%	-0.04
Sebastian Telfair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	42%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Damon Stoudamire	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	20	44%	-0.03	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	8	41%	-0.03	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.3	26.2	15.5	25.4	1.7	31.0	124.4
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +47.0%

DET +4.7%

POR -7.9%

DET +7.3%

POR -1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	POR	NBA	DET	POR	NBA
this game	15.9	16.6	15.5	117.0	104.5	104.0
season	16.7	15.8		103.5	101.2
opponent	15.6	15.9		105.4	98.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.0	14.8	18.3	15.8	15.9
POR	15.7	17.9	16.0	16.9	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tayshaun Prince	76	77	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.11	15	-5	20	16.0	15.3	0.69	16.6	16.7	-0.07
Rasheed Wallace	60	60	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.07	15	-5	20	15.5	16.7	-1.20	16.7	16.3	0.39
Richard Hamilton	73	74	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.12	13	-3	16	15.9	16.1	-0.16	16.5	17.2	-0.71
Ben Wallace	66	67	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.04	11	-1	12	16.5	14.3	2.21	16.5	17.0	-0.58
Chauncey Billups	60	62	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.11	8	2	6	16.4	14.9	1.47	15.6	18.9	-3.28
Antonio McDyess	45	45	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.26	-4	14	-18	16.2	15.6	0.64	17.5	15.7	1.87
Carlos Arroyo	29	29	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.12	0	10	-10	14.6	16.6	-2.06	18.4	15.7	2.63
Lindsey Hunter	14	14	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.05	-1	11	-12	16.9	15.7	1.19	16.9	16.5	0.38
Darvin Ham	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	10	-10	8.7	16.2	-7.52	12.0	16.8	-4.77
Horace Jenkins	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	12	-14	13.0	16.0	-3.00	11.0	16.7	-5.74
Ronald Dupree	12	12	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.10	-5	15	-20	15.3	16.0	-0.69	16.7	16.6	0.07

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Travis Outlaw	2	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-12	14	11.0	16.7	-5.74	13.0	16.0	-3.00
Viktor Khryapa	2	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-12	14	11.0	16.7	-5.74	13.0	16.0	-3.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	32	32	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.19	6	-16	22	16.2	16.9	-0.70	16.9	15.4	1.58
Sebastian Telfair	22	21	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.09	0	-10	10	17.6	16.3	1.31	15.7	16.0	-0.35
Darius Miles	32	32	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.10	-1	-9	8	18.2	15.7	2.42	15.7	16.1	-0.43
Richie Frahm	25	27	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.07	-3	-7	4	17.3	16.3	0.99	15.3	16.2	-0.97
Theo Ratliff	28	28	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.07	-4	-6	2	18.7	15.6	3.07	15.5	16.1	-0.69
Joel Przybilla	61	60	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.13	-6	-4	-2	15.6	18.7	-3.07	16.1	15.5	0.69
Nick Van Exel	63	62	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.09	-9	-1	-8	16.6	16.7	-0.18	16.0	15.8	0.12
Ruben Patterson	55	53	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.11	-9	-1	-8	15.9	17.7	-1.83	16.5	15.1	1.45
Damon Stoudamire	68	67	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.10	-10	0	-10	16.1	18.3	-2.26	16.0	15.7	0.35
Zach Randolph	55	54	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	0.04	-18	8	-26	17.1	15.9	1.22	15.4	16.7	-1.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.43,0.43,0.36,0.29,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.33,0.31,0.33,0.4,0.36,0.27,0.33,0.25,0.23,0.22,0.24,0.2,0.18,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.16,0.18,0.19,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.15,0.11,0.15,0.1,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 112, DET 101	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.34,0.35,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.32,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.25,0.22,0.29,0.27,0.36,0.22,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.1,0.16,0.11,0.14,0.15,0.19,0.22,0.25,0.17,0.15,0.08,0.09,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	95.3%
PHI 96, TOR 84	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.32,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.33,0.32,0.27,0.34,0.21,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.16,0.21,0.17,0.08,0.06,0.15,0.16,0.14,0.23,0.21,0.19,0.13,0.06,0.14,0.16,0.08,0.09,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0	95.0%
UTA 101, MEM 91	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.34,0.35,0.32,0.29,0.3,0.36,0.32,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.27,0.31,0.33,0.28,0.34,0.31,0.26,0.23,0.24,0.2,0.19,0.16,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.12,0.14,0.23,0.11,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.03,0,0	94.6%