NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	101		Excitement	9.0 [147]		MVP	Zach Randolph (POR): +41.4%
Portland Trail Blazers	102		Comeback	1.5 [799]		LVP	Josh Smith (ATL): -33.3%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Boris Diaw	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.07	0.09	0.00	12	65%	0.18	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Predrag Drobnjak	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.18,0.18,0.27,0.27,0.06	0.07	-0.01	-0.01	16	59%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Collier	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Childress	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02	-0.05	0.06	-0.00	12	44%	0.07	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Michael Stewart	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyronn Lue	-0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	11	50%	0.06	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.06
Royal Ivey	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	5	40%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Obinna Ekezie	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	5	40%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	-0.13	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13	-0.01	-0.11	0.01	21	53%	-0.04	3	-0.09	5	80%	0.01
Josh Smith	-0.33	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16,-0.26,-0.33,-0.33	-0.09	-0.24	0.01	9	35%	-0.21	2	-0.12	2	50%	-0.01

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zach Randolph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.41	0.41	0.20	0.26	0.05	17	77%	0.41	0	0.00	6	83%	-0.00
Ruben Patterson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.13,0.13	0.13	-0.00	0.07	-0.06	15	59%	0.26	3	-0.13	4	50%	-0.02
Darius Miles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.04	0.07	-0.00	11	54%	0.09	2	-0.05	6	50%	-0.04
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.01	4	100%	0.08	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Theo Ratliff	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Richie Frahm	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	6	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	9	45%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Damon Stoudamire	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.00	0.00	17	40%	-0.02	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.6	0.8	28.3	15.4	24.4	2.5	32.2	129.3
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +73.2%

ATL -13.1%

ATL -23.2%

POR +7.4%

POR +5.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	POR	NBA	ATL	POR	NBA
this game	15.7	15.9	15.5	111.0	112.1	104.0
season	15.6	15.8		98.1	101.2
opponent	15.6	15.1		105.4	108.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	13.3	15.2	16.1	19.0	15.7
POR	14.9	15.4	14.5	19.9	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Collier	14	14	0.16	-0.66	0.82	0.01	5	-6	11	12.7	16.2	-3.53	15.2	16.1	-0.86
Royal Ivey	26	26	0.09	-0.59	0.67	-0.03	4	-5	9	14.4	16.2	-1.79	15.1	16.3	-1.22
Josh Childress	70	71	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.06	1	-2	3	15.1	17.7	-2.55	14.9	19.6	-4.68
Michael Stewart	10	10	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.05	-6	5	-11	13.4	16.0	-2.59	11.3	16.5	-5.22
Predrag Drobnjak	59	61	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.46	10	-11	21	14.9	17.2	-2.34	16.4	15.0	1.46
Obinna Ekezie	36	35	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	0.03	-9	8	-17	16.7	15.0	1.73	15.4	16.3	-0.89
Boris Diaw	59	59	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.42	1	-2	3	15.8	15.6	0.22	16.4	15.1	1.26
Tyronn Lue	65	65	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.44	-5	4	-9	16.2	14.4	1.79	16.3	15.1	1.22
Josh Smith	53	52	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.55	-2	1	-3	16.5	14.6	1.89	16.4	15.3	1.12
Al Harrington	63	62	-0.62	0.12	-0.73	-0.50	-4	3	-7	16.8	13.2	3.65	17.0	13.6	3.46

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darius Miles	44	46	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.49	1	0	1	16.2	15.7	0.41	15.0	16.4	-1.33
Zach Randolph	60	62	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.46	1	0	1	15.6	16.5	-0.87	15.8	15.6	0.17
Ruben Patterson	63	61	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.43	1	0	1	15.5	17.0	-1.47	15.9	15.3	0.65
Theo Ratliff	40	40	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.25	7	-6	13	16.8	15.3	1.53	16.5	15.1	1.38
Nick Van Exel	72	73	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.44	-2	3	-5	15.8	16.5	-0.73	15.5	16.6	-1.13
Damon Stoudamire	77	77	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.07	3	-2	5	15.9	15.9	0.02	15.9	14.4	1.59
Richie Frahm	30	29	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.09	-1	2	-3	15.7	16.1	-0.37	14.7	16.2	-1.44
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	39	38	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.05	-1	2	-3	16.8	15.3	1.44	16.1	15.5	0.60
Joel Przybilla	30	29	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.07	-4	5	-9	15.6	16.1	-0.56	15.6	15.8	-0.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.5,0.5,0.55,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.6,0.51,0.64,0.58,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.73,0.6,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.54,0.53,0.59,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.69,0.82,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 93, NYK 97	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.53,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.73,0.77,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.5,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.73,0.62,0.7,0.67,0.83,1	93.8%
CLE 59, SAS 64	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.48,0.47,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.38,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.68,0.62,0.52,0.59,0.57,0.56,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.77,0.82,1	93.5%
SAC 86, WAS 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.62,0.61,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.67,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.63,0.7,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.79,0.89,0.96,1	92.7%