NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	113		Excitement	8.6 [181]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +21.6%
Dallas Mavericks	122		Comeback	7.1 [302]		LVP	Brad Miller (SAC): -16.5%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cuttino Mobley	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08	0.01	0.06	-0.01	19	63%	0.30	6	-0.22	3	100%	0.02
Eddie House	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.03	-0.02	5	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darius Songaila	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.03,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03	-0.01	0.04	-0.01	14	70%	0.23	6	-0.20	5	60%	-0.02
Kevin Martin	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Ostertag	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,-0.01,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	20	53%	0.03	2	-0.05	9	78%	-0.00
Maurice Evans	-0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	7	55%	-0.01	2	-0.04	8	87%	0.03
Brad Miller	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.06,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.05	-0.12	-0.01	12	47%	-0.14	1	-0.02	10	100%	0.07

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.17,0.21,0.17,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.13	0.09	0.01	25	61%	0.22	0	0.00	6	83%	0.03
Michael Finley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,0.06,0.13,0.12	0.12	0.02	0.08	-0.02	21	50%	0.15	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Marquis Daniels	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	-0.02	-0.03	23	59%	0.17	3	-0.11	3	100%	0.02
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	6	79%	0.09	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.03
Josh Howard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.07	0.08	-0.03	18	42%	0.08	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.02	-0.02	8	44%	0.02	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Jason Terry	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.10	-0.04	-0.00	4	0%	-0.08	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	3.5	31.2	20.4	28.6	3.2	35.4	146.5
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +24.3%

SAC -6.1%

DAL +20.5%

DAL +18.7%

SAC -7.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	DAL	NBA	SAC	DAL	NBA
this game	13.1	14.6	15.5	109.7	116.2	104.0
season	14.7	14.9		108.1	108.2
opponent	15.5	15.6		103.4	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	14.5	12.3	13.3	12.4	13.1
DAL	14.9	15.0	14.9	13.7	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greg Ostertag	18	18	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	0.03	-6	-3	-3	16.2	12.4	3.74	15.4	14.4	0.95
Eddie House	19	19	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	0.21	-12	3	-15	15.0	12.6	2.36	16.2	14.2	1.97
Kevin Martin	21	20	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	0.08	-11	2	-13	16.3	12.3	4.03	14.2	14.7	-0.43
Maurice Evans	84	85	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.30	0	-9	9	12.4	16.0	-3.58	14.4	15.4	-1.05
Brad Miller	87	89	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.26	-3	-6	3	12.4	16.7	-4.27	14.5	15.4	-0.91
Darius Songaila	96	99	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.36	0	-9	9	13.0	14.6	-1.60	14.9	9.5	5.41
Cuttino Mobley	97	101	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.29	-4	-5	1	13.0	14.2	-1.16	14.8	9.7	5.04
Mike Bibby	93	94	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.29	-9	0	-9	12.8	16.0	-3.24	14.0	19.9	-5.93

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shawn Bradley	64	65	0.90	-0.40	1.30	0.23	23	-14	37	14.5	14.8	-0.34	13.7	11.9	1.79
Josh Howard	61	59	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.40	8	1	7	14.3	15.0	-0.69	14.2	11.6	2.56
Michael Finley	92	91	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.27	11	-2	13	14.6	14.4	0.25	13.1	13.1	-0.01
Darrell Armstrong	52	49	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.22	9	0	9	14.4	14.8	-0.39	13.1	13.0	0.09
Dirk Nowitzki	96	94	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.29	3	6	-3	14.8	12.4	2.36	12.8	16.3	-3.57
Devin Harris	46	43	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.15	7	2	5	15.2	14.1	1.10	13.2	13.0	0.15
Jason Terry	32	34	-0.20	0.70	-0.91	0.09	-10	19	-29	14.0	14.8	-0.82	11.2	14.0	-2.79
Marquis Daniels	82	80	-0.33	0.83	-1.17	-0.16	-6	15	-21	14.6	14.4	0.21	12.8	14.0	-1.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.35,0.39,0.37,0.43,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.67,0.72,0.74,0.66,0.72,0.67,0.67,0.54,0.52,0.43,0.45,0.48,0.39,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.41,0.4,0.32,0.26,0.22,0.15,0.14,0.28,0.21,0.24,0.39,0.75,0.71,0.91,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 89, OKC 95	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.43,0.36,0.4,0.41,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.65,0.61,0.69,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.31,0.27,0.26,0.36,0.42,0.34,0.38,0.2,0.23,0.36,0.29,0.28,0.45,0.71,0.89,1,1	91.1%
VAN 96, LAC 105	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.5,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.71,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.71,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.7,0.67,0.6,0.48,0.4,0.45,0.29,0.29,0.32,0.31,0.41,0.4,0.36,0.3,0.38,0.43,0.33,0.23,0.21,0.29,0.46,0.69,0.85,0.95,0.98,1	90.9%
NJN 102, ORL 105	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.68,0.68,0.68,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.5,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.28,0.3,0.4,0.48,0.38,0.37,0.29,0.38,0.32,0.13,0.24,0.53,0.69,0.72,0.87,0.83,1	90.8%