NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	101		Excitement	4.2 [998]		MVP	Beno Udrih (SAS): +7.0%
New Orleans Hornets	78		Comeback	1.2 [504]		LVP	Rodney Rogers (NOH): -11.8%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Beno Udrih	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	6	75%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.02	0.04	-0.02	12	37%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.01	-0.01	16	50%	0.03	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.02
Manu Ginobili	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	7	65%	0.04	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.03
Tony Parker	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.02	12	46%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	12	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sean Marks	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	3	33%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	150%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	0.01	0.03	10	55%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Devin Brown	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	9	50%	-0.01	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.00

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.00	17	62%	0.06	3	-0.02	6	67%	-0.04
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.00	0.01	11	55%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maciej Lampe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jackson Vroman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bostjan Nachbar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	7	53%	-0.01	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.04
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	8	53%	0.02	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
George Lynch	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Dickau	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.11	0.00	-0.06	10	50%	0.02	5	-0.08	6	67%	-0.00
Casey Jacobsen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.00	-0.01	4	9%	-0.09	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Rodney Rogers	0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.01	-0.01	7	37%	-0.04	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.5	26.4	15.6	24.4	2.4	29.6	123.1
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +16.2%

SAS +9.5%

SAS +18.4%

SAS +7.4%

NOH -1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	NOH	NBA	SAS	NOH	NBA
this game	16.7	17.6	15.5	118.8	94.0	104.0
season	16.3	16.5		105.8	97.7
opponent	15.7	15.6		105.2	98.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.6	15.2	21.9	15.3	16.7
NOH	15.7	19.1	19.2	16.7	17.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	55	56	0.64	-0.14	0.79	-0.15	27	-4	31	15.9	18.2	-2.25	18.2	16.1	2.08
Tim Duncan	59	60	0.61	-0.11	0.73	-0.12	25	-2	27	16.3	17.8	-1.54	17.9	16.7	1.25
Bruce Bowen	48	47	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.12	7	16	-9	18.3	14.7	3.56	17.6	17.5	0.14
Tony Parker	49	48	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.11	7	16	-9	17.7	15.4	2.35	17.5	17.7	-0.23
Rasho Nesterovic	53	52	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.09	4	19	-15	17.0	16.4	0.59	18.0	16.8	1.25
Beno Udrih	36	35	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.29	16	7	9	15.4	17.7	-2.35	17.7	17.5	0.23
Malik Rose	49	47	0.17	0.33	-0.15	-0.18	12	11	1	16.9	16.5	0.42	17.2	18.0	-0.74
Brent Barry	28	26	0.05	0.45	-0.41	-0.25	10	13	-3	15.8	17.2	-1.42	16.6	18.0	-1.42
Sean Marks	9	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.15	5	18	-13	17.6	16.6	0.91	13.3	17.9	-4.66
Devin Brown	39	37	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.07	2	21	-19	16.6	16.8	-0.19	17.1	17.9	-0.76

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Maciej Lampe	3	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-23	23	9.7	17.8	-8.18	17.0	16.7	0.27
Jackson Vroman	3	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-23	23	9.7	17.8	-8.18	17.0	16.7	0.27
P.J. Brown	47	47	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.16	-9	-14	5	17.1	18.2	-1.13	18.1	15.0	3.15
Bostjan Nachbar	46	48	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.22	-11	-12	1	17.5	17.6	-0.17	16.1	17.5	-1.42
Casey Jacobsen	31	34	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.02	-5	-18	13	18.0	17.3	0.66	14.7	18.1	-3.39
Chris Andersen	53	53	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.14	-14	-9	-5	18.3	16.3	2.02	15.8	18.2	-2.42
Dan Dickau	65	65	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.14	-17	-6	-11	17.5	17.9	-0.43	17.5	14.1	3.39
George Lynch	37	37	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.04	-12	-11	-1	17.6	17.5	0.17	17.5	16.1	1.42
J.R. Smith	70	71	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	0.19	-24	1	-25	17.5	18.1	-0.62	17.0	15.5	1.49
Rodney Rogers	60	60	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	0.05	-23	0	-23	18.1	16.2	1.91	16.4	17.6	-1.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.33,0.27,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.15,0.19,0.16,0.1,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.15,0.1,0.12,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 131, PHI 110	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.36,0.25,0.21,0.23,0.11,0.15,0.21,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.13,0.14,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.5%
UTA 103, TOR 88	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.39,0.36,0.27,0.23,0.22,0.2,0.17,0.14,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.5%
POR 105, UTA 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.24,0.21,0.17,0.13,0.16,0.26,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0	95.4%