NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	122		Excitement	4.5 [951]		MVP	Donyell Marshall (TOR): +19.6%
Toronto Raptors	113		Comeback	1.1 [584]		LVP	Lamond Murray (TOR): -10.1%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.16	0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.16	0.07	0.05	-0.05	22	62%	0.25	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.01
Josh Howard	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.09	0.02	-0.01	12	69%	0.12	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Terry	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.07	0.08	0.00	0.01	8	83%	0.10	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Michael Finley	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.13	0.00	0.09	14	74%	0.06	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	8	55%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	4	71%	0.05	3	-0.05	6	83%	0.02
Alan Henderson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Erick Dampier	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	9	48%	-0.03	0	0.00	9	33%	-0.05

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.19	0.04	0.04	9	106%	0.21	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.10	-0.00	0.01	15	66%	0.09	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05	0.05	0.10	-0.02	0.04	12	76%	0.12	2	-0.08	14	93%	0.03
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Milt Palacio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	3	70%	0.01	2	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Rafael Araujo	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	17	63%	0.05	6	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
Rafer Alston	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	16	41%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Lamond Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.02	0.00	4	0%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.6	29.1	15.7	27.2	2.6	36.5	139.0
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +28.4%

TOR -5.1%

DAL +13.5%

DAL +8.2%

DAL +5.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	TOR	NBA	DAL	TOR	NBA
this game	15.0	14.5	15.5	124.5	116.5	104.0
season	14.9	15.1		108.2	104.8
opponent	15.4	15.5		106.8	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	12.8	14.3	17.6	15.7	15.0
TOR	16.6	14.0	15.1	12.4	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Howard	88	88	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.08	22	-13	35	15.2	13.8	1.38	14.8	11.9	2.87
Erick Dampier	71	71	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.14	17	-8	25	15.9	12.8	3.07	15.4	12.2	3.20
Michael Finley	85	83	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.17	16	-7	23	15.2	13.9	1.29	14.7	13.1	1.58
Dirk Nowitzki	75	75	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.17	12	-3	15	15.9	12.3	3.52	14.8	13.4	1.46
Jason Terry	72	71	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.16	3	6	-3	15.5	13.7	1.78	14.9	13.4	1.52
Devin Harris	36	34	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.19	-6	15	-21	13.9	15.7	-1.82	13.0	15.3	-2.30
Darrell Armstrong	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	7	-5	0.5	15.3	-14.84	8.5	14.6	-6.12
Alan Henderson	26	25	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.15	-10	19	-29	13.3	15.7	-2.41	12.3	15.3	-2.98
Jerry Stackhouse	35	36	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.16	-11	20	-31	13.1	16.1	-2.95	13.4	15.1	-1.71

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Milt Palacio	37	37	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.25	11	-20	31	13.2	15.3	-2.11	14.7	15.3	-0.59
Eric Williams	11	11	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.02	-6	-3	-3	15.1	14.4	0.67	14.9	15.1	-0.15
Lamond Murray	11	11	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.01	-8	-1	-7	16.2	14.3	1.90	14.9	15.1	-0.15
Chris Bosh	74	76	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.23	0	-9	9	14.8	13.4	1.39	15.4	13.7	1.75
Donyell Marshall	72	73	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.39	5	-14	19	13.5	17.4	-3.91	15.1	14.9	0.22
Rafael Araujo	25	25	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.16	-14	5	-19	17.4	13.5	3.91	14.9	15.1	-0.22
Matt Bonner	23	22	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.03	-10	1	-11	13.4	14.8	-1.39	13.7	15.4	-1.75
Morris Peterson	71	72	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.12	-6	-3	-3	14.6	14.2	0.41	15.0	15.2	-0.15
Jalen Rose	86	87	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.28	-2	-7	5	14.4	15.1	-0.67	15.1	14.9	0.15
Rafer Alston	75	76	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.11	-15	6	-21	14.8	13.5	1.29	15.3	14.2	1.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.45,0.37,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.29,0.24,0.19,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 91, CHI 81	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.44,0.43,0.34,0.35,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.35,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.24,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.12,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.11,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0	96.0%
ORL 93, MIA 84	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.39,0.32,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.32,0.27,0.24,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.15,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.09,0.06,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	95.7%
DAL 98, SAS 81	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.35,0.37,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.3,0.25,0.24,0.26,0.15,0.14,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	95.1%