NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	87		Excitement	6.1 [628]		MVP	Mo Williams (MIL): +13.5%
Cleveland Cavaliers	104		Comeback	2.9 [707]		LVP	Zaza Pachulia (MIL): -16.2%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mo Williams	0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.07	0.04	-0.03	8	89%	0.17	3	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Desmond Mason	-0.01	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	16	47%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Dan Gadzuric	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	4	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02
Mike James	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	7	57%	0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	18	53%	-0.02	2	-0.02	7	100%	0.03
Toni Kukoc	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	1	50%	-0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Joe Smith	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.09	-0.00	-0.04	11	35%	-0.01	1	-0.04	4	25%	-0.01
Erick Strickland	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.11	-0.06	-0.00	9	35%	-0.10	2	-0.06	5	80%	0.01

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lucious Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.02	0.00	6	75%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.10	0.03	0.07	19	65%	0.10	1	-0.04	13	100%	0.07
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.04	0.03	-0.03	20	55%	0.12	4	-0.11	11	91%	0.05
Eric Snow	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	6	69%	0.04	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
DeSagana Diop	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Traylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	6	33%	-0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jeff McInnis	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.11	-0.02	-0.03	21	36%	-0.06	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Sasha Pavlovic	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.08	-0.05	0.01	7	36%	-0.05	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	3.5	27.2	17.0	28.1	2.8	44.0	148.8
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +4.8%

CLE +19.2%

CLE +28.0%

MIL -1.3%

MIL -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	CLE	NBA	MIL	CLE	NBA
this game	14.3	16.0	15.5	91.6	109.5	104.0
season	16.0	16.2		104.4	104.6
opponent	15.3	15.0		103.9	107.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	16.1	13.4	11.9	16.0	14.3
CLE	13.2	17.3	16.3	17.4	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Gadzuric	31	30	0.05	-0.55	0.60	0.02	1	-18	19	14.2	14.3	-0.15	16.5	15.8	0.65
Erick Strickland	22	24	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.18	5	-22	27	14.1	14.4	-0.27	18.1	15.3	2.76
Mo Williams	60	61	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.31	-14	-3	-11	14.1	14.6	-0.48	16.3	15.6	0.72
Toni Kukoc	22	24	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.09	-6	-11	5	14.5	14.2	0.33	20.0	14.7	5.27
Desmond Mason	79	77	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.13	-16	-1	-15	14.2	14.9	-0.77	15.6	17.9	-2.37
Michael Redd	84	82	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.13	-17	0	-17	14.2	15.3	-1.11	15.2	21.4	-6.21
Mike James	35	34	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.31	-3	-14	11	14.6	14.1	0.48	15.6	16.3	-0.72
Zaza Pachulia	72	72	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.07	-15	-2	-13	14.3	14.4	-0.13	15.6	17.3	-1.75
Joe Smith	70	71	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	0.05	-20	3	-23	14.7	13.3	1.38	15.7	17.0	-1.25

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Snow	84	85	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.06	22	-5	27	15.5	20.4	-4.91	14.4	13.2	1.22
Robert Traylor	57	55	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.01	23	-6	29	16.4	15.4	0.96	14.5	14.0	0.47
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	87	88	0.65	-0.15	0.81	-0.08	25	-8	33	15.7	19.0	-3.25	14.5	11.7	2.79
Jeff McInnis	94	94	0.52	-0.02	0.55	-0.03	19	-2	21	16.0	18.0	-2.00	14.3	11.0	3.33
Drew Gooden	66	66	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.02	10	7	3	16.6	14.6	2.02	14.4	14.0	0.47
Lucious Harris	33	33	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.00	1	16	-15	15.5	16.3	-0.78	13.5	14.7	-1.19
DeSagana Diop	7	6	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.05	-6	23	-29	19.1	15.8	3.37	11.8	14.5	-2.63
Sasha Pavlovic	47	48	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	-0.02	-9	26	-35	16.1	15.9	0.25	14.0	14.6	-0.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.65,0.71,0.71,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.56,0.63,0.57,0.57,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.48,0.37,0.3,0.3,0.43,0.52,0.58,0.74,0.85,0.95,0.9,0.98,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 108, NJN 115	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.65,0.58,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.5,0.48,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.71,0.62,0.62,0.55,0.52,0.6,0.52,0.38,0.3,0.43,0.43,0.68,0.78,0.76,0.87,0.81,0.96,0.94,0.98,1	92.8%
MIN 99, GSW 116	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.64,0.68,0.63,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.66,0.67,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.64,0.64,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.43,0.57,0.62,0.63,0.74,0.81,0.95,1,1,1,1,1	92.8%
GSW 94, DAL 105	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.7,0.69,0.67,0.62,0.61,0.63,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.7,0.6,0.49,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.4,0.42,0.52,0.51,0.57,0.65,0.69,0.81,0.83,0.75,0.97,1,1,1	92.8%