NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	78		Excitement	3.4 [1140]		MVP	Jon Barry (HOU): +15.8%
Houston Rockets	89		Comeback	1.2 [1079]		LVP	Steve Francis (ORL): -23.7%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jameer Nelson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	0.01	0.03	9	67%	0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pat Garrity	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	4	37%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Doug Christie	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	4	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Andrew DeClercq	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Stacey Augmon	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelvin Cato	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.04	6	61%	-0.02	0	0.00	6	83%	-0.01
Dwight Howard	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.00	0.01	12	40%	-0.04	2	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.12	-0.00	-0.03	11	36%	-0.04	4	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Steve Francis	-0.24	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.14,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.23,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.25	-0.04	-0.05	28	38%	-0.12	7	-0.12	5	60%	-0.01

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jon Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.16	0.01	0.02	10	86%	0.16	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.00	-0.01	3	90%	0.07	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Yao Ming	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	-0.01	-0.01	14	67%	0.08	3	-0.04	5	80%	-0.00
David Wesley	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.04	10	43%	0.01	1	-0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	5	20%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	11	45%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Andre Barrett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scott Padgett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rod Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.14	0.00	-0.05	7	12%	-0.05	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Bob Sura	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.16	-0.00	-0.01	13	39%	-0.10	3	-0.05	12	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.1	1.8	29.0	15.8	25.0	2.5	34.3	130.5
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +25.8%

HOU +6.5%

HOU +4.3%

HOU +10.8%

HOU +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	HOU	NBA	ORL	HOU	NBA
this game	13.6	15.9	15.5	81.2	89.9	104.0
season	14.3	16.0		102.9	104.2
opponent	15.8	15.5		100.6	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.2	14.7	12.8	12.4	13.6
HOU	15.2	14.1	17.7	16.9	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stacey Augmon	4	3	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.00	0	-11	11	14.7	13.5	1.25	13.7	16.0	-2.35
Andrew DeClercq	6	7	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.03	-3	-8	5	11.7	13.7	-2.01	16.1	15.9	0.21
Pat Garrity	28	28	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.11	0	-11	11	13.1	13.7	-0.63	15.1	16.3	-1.17
Tony Battie	24	25	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.12	0	-11	11	14.0	13.4	0.65	18.3	15.2	3.12
Jameer Nelson	47	49	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.29	4	-15	19	12.9	14.2	-1.33	17.0	14.9	2.08
Doug Christie	27	29	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	0.15	-13	2	-15	14.6	13.1	1.50	15.3	16.2	-0.95
Hedo Turkoglu	55	56	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.17	-4	-7	3	13.9	13.1	0.84	16.2	15.6	0.69
Dwight Howard	60	63	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.03	-11	0	-11	13.6	13.5	0.04	15.8	16.3	-0.52
Kelvin Cato	74	75	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.12	-8	-3	-5	13.7	13.0	0.66	15.6	17.0	-1.33
Grant Hill	68	69	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.03	-12	1	-13	13.5	13.7	-0.23	15.0	18.1	-3.09
Steve Francis	87	91	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.18	-8	-3	-5	13.4	15.4	-2.09	16.2	13.1	3.07

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David Wesley	88	83	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.16	10	1	9	16.0	15.7	0.25	13.1	16.6	-3.54
Jon Barry	66	65	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.04	14	-3	17	15.7	16.5	-0.80	13.6	13.5	0.10
Yao Ming	78	74	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.02	13	-2	15	15.5	17.5	-1.94	13.1	14.9	-1.76
Bob Sura	74	74	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.11	9	2	7	15.6	17.0	-1.35	13.8	12.8	0.95
Scott Padgett	36	36	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.02	12	-1	13	14.3	16.9	-2.63	14.2	13.2	0.98
Rod Strickland	32	30	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.05	5	6	-1	16.6	15.6	1.00	14.6	13.1	1.52
Juwan Howard	63	61	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.26	-3	14	-17	16.9	14.3	2.63	13.1	14.4	-1.29
Dikembe Mutombo	21	21	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.10	0	11	-11	17.5	15.5	1.94	15.3	13.1	2.22
Ryan Bowen	33	31	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.14	-3	14	-17	16.5	15.7	0.80	13.5	13.6	-0.10
Andre Barrett	4	5	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.03	-2	13	-15	16.2	15.9	0.31	12.0	13.6	-1.64

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.6,0.61,0.67,0.66,0.68,0.64,0.73,0.71,0.77,0.76,0.82,0.81,0.84,0.9,0.88,0.9,0.96,0.93,0.94,0.92,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.9,0.94,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.93,0.94,0.88,0.94,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 77, PHX 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.81,0.78,0.78,0.84,0.87,0.83,0.88,0.92,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.94,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.95,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%
SAC 88, PHX 100	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.66,0.7,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.79,0.78,0.79,0.84,0.82,0.86,0.85,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.96,0.92,0.93,0.98,0.96,0.98,1,1	96.2%
VAN 99, ATL 109	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.55,0.59,0.65,0.69,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.8,0.82,0.87,0.87,0.88,0.86,0.91,0.93,0.91,0.91,0.89,0.9,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.9,0.93,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.94,0.97,0.96,1,1,1,1	96.2%