NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	101		Excitement	8.2 [254]		MVP	Doug Christie (ORL): +24.1%
Orlando Magic	103		Comeback	8.6 [229]		LVP	Chauncey Billups (DET): -21.3%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lindsey Hunter	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.04	0.04	-0.02	9	70%	0.15	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Richard Hamilton	0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11	0.04	0.08	0.02	16	65%	0.19	3	-0.08	8	100%	0.09
Anthony Goldwire	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.00	0.00	3	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.00	7	40%	0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Ronald Dupree	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.1,-0.1	0.00	-0.10	-0.00	8	56%	0.03	1	-0.13	2	0%	-0.04
Tayshaun Prince	-0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.14	-0.03	-0.10	0.01	9	48%	-0.12	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Rasheed Wallace	-0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.03	-0.09	0.07	21	40%	-0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	-0.21	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.21,-0.21	-0.06	-0.14	0.01	12	44%	-0.04	2	-0.17	3	67%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Doug Christie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.02	0.22	-0.00	5	75%	0.29	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Kelvin Cato	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.00	0.05	-0.01	5	67%	0.09	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.00	2	100%	0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.11	-0.06	0.03	18	67%	0.08	2	-0.06	7	86%	0.05
Stacey Augmon	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pat Garrity	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.08	0.04	-0.01	10	37%	0.00	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.03
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	4	50%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.02	0.01	14	29%	-0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Steve Francis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.11,-0.15,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.08,-0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.09,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.05	-0.15	-0.01	27	54%	0.04	6	-0.22	5	60%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.4	27.5	21.4	26.5	2.5	39.3	143.8
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +36.5%

DET -4.6%

ORL +29.0%

DET -7.9%

DET -3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	ORL	NBA	DET	ORL	NBA
this game	16.1	13.9	15.5	104.1	108.4	104.0
season	16.7	14.3		103.5	102.9
opponent	15.5	15.9		105.1	98.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.0	17.6	15.5	16.3	16.1
ORL	12.6	13.0	14.5	15.7	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lindsey Hunter	46	47	0.05	-0.55	0.60	0.11	-2	0	-2	15.2	16.9	-1.71	14.1	13.7	0.44
Anthony Goldwire	14	12	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.10	-6	4	-10	20.9	15.2	5.70	12.2	14.2	-1.92
Antonio McDyess	39	40	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.09	-7	5	-12	18.8	14.2	4.59	14.4	13.6	0.86
Ronald Dupree	10	10	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.05	-8	6	-14	22.2	15.3	6.86	12.4	14.1	-1.71
Rasheed Wallace	79	77	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.49	4	-6	10	15.9	16.6	-0.62	14.2	12.6	1.62
Richard Hamilton	82	82	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.57	6	-8	14	15.3	20.1	-4.83	14.3	11.5	2.77
Ben Wallace	75	72	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.54	4	-6	10	14.9	20.0	-5.11	13.5	15.2	-1.70
Tayshaun Prince	75	73	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.58	4	-6	10	15.1	19.4	-4.28	13.5	15.2	-1.69
Chauncey Billups	65	62	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.38	-5	3	-8	16.6	15.0	1.62	14.1	13.7	0.40

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Doug Christie	52	50	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.40	12	-10	22	13.8	14.0	-0.18	16.2	15.9	0.35
Kelvin Cato	55	58	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.71	-3	5	-8	13.6	14.4	-0.86	16.9	14.8	2.06
Steve Francis	84	85	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.58	0	2	-2	13.9	14.3	-0.39	15.2	22.0	-6.79
Dwight Howard	70	74	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.44	0	2	-2	14.3	12.8	1.47	16.0	16.3	-0.33
Hedo Turkoglu	78	80	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.54	-4	6	-10	13.9	13.9	0.05	15.2	20.2	-5.00
Stacey Augmon	1	1	0.04	0.46	-0.41	-0.04	3	-1	4	0.0	14.1	-14.07	5.0	16.2	-11.17
Tony Battie	46	44	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.15	3	-1	4	13.4	14.4	-1.08	15.2	16.8	-1.59
Jameer Nelson	11	12	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	-0.14	2	0	2	14.3	13.9	0.39	22.0	15.2	6.79
Andrew DeClercq	19	18	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.09	0	2	-2	14.9	13.7	1.21	15.8	16.1	-0.27
Grant Hill	60	64	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	-0.07	-2	4	-6	14.0	13.8	0.15	17.0	14.2	2.83

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.29,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.44,0.34,0.38,0.29,0.33,0.27,0.1,0.19,0.33,0.53,0.46,0.32,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 93, SEA 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.41,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.43,0.4,0.46,0.53,0.59,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.64,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.44,0.42,0.34,0.38,0.24,0.27,0.21,0.24,0.4,0.39,0.45,0.67,0.73,1	92.2%
POR 103, MEM 108	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.41,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.4,0.47,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.37,0.35,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.33,0.4,0.3,0.34,0.43,0.24,0.27,0.17,0.24,0.47,0.44,0.54,0.57,0.9,1	91.0%
SAS 106, OKC 112	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.39,0.38,0.43,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.27,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.41,0.38,0.2,0.29,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.53,0.37,0.37,0.26,0.15,0.27,0.55,0.55,0.43,0.83,1	91.0%