NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	98		Excitement	7.5 [360]		MVP	Vladimir Radmanovic (SEA): +39.9%
Seattle SuperSonics	108		Comeback	5.2 [472]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -20.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0.12	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.11	0.01	0.01	11	76%	0.16	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Damon Jones	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07	-0.04	0.07	-0.04	12	46%	0.11	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Christian Laettner	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	5	58%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Shandon Anderson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Rasual Butler	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	6	43%	-0.03	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.03	-0.10	-0.01	18	57%	-0.06	3	-0.07	13	46%	-0.18
Dwyane Wade	-0.21	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.09,-0.14,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.14	-0.10	-0.03	19	39%	-0.09	4	-0.12	3	67%	0.01

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vladimir Radmanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.24,0.31,0.31,0.4,0.4	0.40	0.23	0.18	0.01	17	79%	0.40	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	3	100%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Fortson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	0.00	0.02	7	75%	0.06	0	0.00	10	80%	-0.06
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.04	-0.00	8	60%	0.07	1	-0.02	9	78%	-0.00
Vitaly Potapenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.02	-0.04	14	43%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00
Jerome James	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.06	0.01	17	42%	-0.08	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.04,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.12	-0.03	-0.02	12	40%	-0.04	3	-0.09	6	83%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	2.4	28.8	15.0	27.3	2.7	41.2	143.1
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +20.0%

SEA +13.3%

SEA +21.9%

MIA -8.0%

SEA +2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	SEA	NBA	MIA	SEA	NBA
this game	16.6	16.4	15.5	111.4	124.1	104.0
season	15.7	16.5		107.9	109.5
opponent	15.6	15.5		107.9	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.4	18.9	16.8	14.1	16.6
SEA	15.6	16.1	13.8	20.2	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasual Butler	4	4	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.09	-4	-6	2	4.5	17.1	-12.63	12.0	16.6	-4.57
Christian Laettner	18	17	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.02	-2	-8	6	17.2	16.4	0.77	17.6	16.1	1.53
Damon Jones	69	69	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.09	0	-10	10	16.4	16.9	-0.50	16.4	16.2	0.24
Shaquille O'Neal	70	70	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.13	-1	-9	8	16.0	18.8	-2.86	16.9	14.2	2.64
Shandon Anderson	18	17	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.02	-7	-3	-4	18.9	15.9	3.00	16.6	16.3	0.36
Michael Doleac	18	17	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.07	-9	-1	-8	18.8	16.0	2.86	14.2	16.9	-2.64
Dwyane Wade	78	78	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.20	-5	-5	0	16.3	18.9	-2.64	16.1	18.2	-2.08
Keyon Dooling	19	18	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.12	-10	0	-10	16.9	16.4	0.50	16.2	16.4	-0.24
Eddie Jones	76	76	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.24	-6	-4	-2	16.9	14.2	2.77	16.8	13.3	3.53
Udonis Haslem	70	69	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.26	-6	-4	-2	16.4	17.2	-0.77	16.0	17.8	-1.79

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vladimir Radmanovic	72	73	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.16	15	-5	20	16.4	16.0	0.43	16.8	15.6	1.15
Luke Ridnour	76	77	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.25	6	4	2	16.2	17.5	-1.36	16.8	15.1	1.68
Danny Fortson	40	39	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.09	11	-1	12	16.4	16.3	0.08	16.1	16.9	-0.82
Antonio Daniels	49	50	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.08	11	-1	12	16.3	16.5	-0.21	17.5	15.3	2.14
Ray Allen	79	79	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.13	9	1	8	16.0	19.5	-3.46	15.9	22.1	-6.19
Nick Collison	27	29	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.05	8	2	6	17.4	15.9	1.52	18.6	15.5	3.08
Rashard Lewis	59	60	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.20	-1	11	-12	16.8	15.3	1.53	16.4	16.9	-0.44
Jerome James	17	17	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	0.02	-4	14	-18	16.1	16.4	-0.30	14.2	17.1	-2.95
Vitaly Potapenko	16	16	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.05	-5	15	-20	15.2	16.6	-1.36	15.3	16.8	-1.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.4,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.46,0.3,0.22,0.27,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.29,0.28,0.26,0.37,0.32,0.62,0.66,0.71,0.76,0.84,0.74,0.53,0.4,0.53,0.79,0.85,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 85, NJN 90	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.35,0.36,0.43,0.36,0.35,0.27,0.27,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.27,0.26,0.33,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.14,0.11,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.41,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.44,0.7,0.7,0.79,0.83,0.73,0.74,0.59,0.4,0.55,0.63,0.85,0.85,1	92.2%
DET 85, CHH 88	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.3,0.37,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.27,0.22,0.22,0.16,0.18,0.22,0.17,0.24,0.16,0.22,0.31,0.27,0.33,0.4,0.5,0.52,0.67,0.62,0.63,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.61,0.63,0.83,0.84,1	91.6%
DEN 86, BOS 96	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.24,0.26,0.29,0.23,0.28,0.27,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.18,0.2,0.27,0.21,0.18,0.29,0.25,0.34,0.37,0.44,0.58,0.57,0.66,0.83,0.81,0.74,0.76,0.66,0.69,0.77,0.68,0.95,1	91.1%