NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	90		Excitement	4.9 [887]		MVP	Tracy McGrady (HOU): +9.1%
Houston Rockets	105		Comeback	1.0 [1250]		LVP	Bob Sura (HOU): -10.9%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.05,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	22	48%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.09	0.01	-0.05	12	45%	0.00	2	-0.04	9	78%	-0.01
Zaza Pachulia	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Mo Williams	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	5	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	8	87%	0.02
Joe Smith	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.02	-0.01	0.06	6	57%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mike James	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	19	42%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.04
Marcus Fizer	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	5	67%	0.03	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Kendall Gill	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	5	33%	-0.04	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Dan Gadzuric	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	6	31%	-0.06	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.05

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tracy McGrady	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.01	-0.00	24	66%	0.17	4	-0.08	16	81%	0.03
Jon Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	6	79%	0.07	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Maurice Taylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.07	0.00	0.05	11	73%	0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Scott Padgett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	3	75%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Reece Gaines	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Wesley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.06	0.02	-0.04	11	37%	0.00	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.02
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	9	45%	0.02	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Bob Sura	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.04	-0.01	7	43%	-0.01	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	1.5	30.4	17.5	27.2	2.5	32.5	135.9
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +38.8%

HOU +15.3%

MIL -10.3%

HOU +5.9%

HOU +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	HOU	NBA	MIL	HOU	NBA
this game	16.3	14.5	15.5	96.8	111.7	104.0
season	16.0	16.0		104.4	104.2
opponent	15.8	15.0		100.6	107.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	17.2	16.1	17.2	14.9	16.3
HOU	12.3	15.9	15.5	14.5	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zaza Pachulia	23	23	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.07	-1	-14	13	17.9	15.8	2.10	15.2	14.2	0.98
Mike James	57	57	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.06	-4	-11	7	15.6	17.5	-1.90	14.6	14.3	0.30
Marcus Fizer	45	45	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.16	-1	-14	13	16.5	16.2	0.34	15.8	13.2	2.58
Desmond Mason	69	71	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	0.02	-9	-6	-3	16.8	15.0	1.80	14.3	15.1	-0.86
Dan Gadzuric	48	49	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.03	-9	-6	-3	16.6	16.0	0.60	14.2	14.8	-0.66
Joe Smith	48	49	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.10	-14	-1	-13	16.2	16.5	-0.34	13.2	15.8	-2.58
Kendall Gill	45	44	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.18	-5	-10	5	16.8	15.9	0.99	15.9	13.3	2.60
Mo Williams	46	48	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.08	-14	-1	-13	16.2	16.5	-0.36	13.7	15.3	-1.53
Michael Redd	84	84	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	0.01	-18	3	-21	15.7	22.4	-6.77	14.3	16.3	-2.04

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David Wesley	82	81	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.02	17	-2	19	14.3	15.7	-1.46	16.1	17.7	-1.63
Tracy McGrady	92	89	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.05	14	1	13	14.6	9.0	5.60	16.6	10.7	5.83
Juwan Howard	51	51	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.03	11	4	7	13.9	15.1	-1.18	17.0	15.5	1.48
Jon Barry	54	53	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.09	7	8	-1	14.8	14.0	0.75	16.0	16.8	-0.77
Dikembe Mutombo	46	47	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.02	8	7	1	14.1	14.9	-0.81	16.8	15.8	1.00
Scott Padgett	29	28	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.01	8	7	1	14.4	14.5	-0.09	14.7	17.0	-2.32
Bob Sura	52	52	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.01	6	9	-3	14.4	14.5	-0.08	17.0	15.5	1.51
Maurice Taylor	43	42	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.03	4	11	-7	15.1	13.9	1.18	15.5	17.0	-1.48
Reece Gaines	2	4	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.01	1	14	-13	9.0	14.6	-5.60	10.7	16.6	-5.83
Clar. Weatherspoon	19	18	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.06	-1	16	-17	15.6	14.2	1.38	17.6	16.0	1.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.54,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.63,0.65,0.69,0.62,0.65,0.72,0.68,0.71,0.73,0.71,0.7,0.67,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.59,0.7,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.73,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.72,0.85,0.78,0.79,0.87,0.87,0.96,0.93,0.96,0.93,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 86, MIA 100	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.62,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.65,0.74,0.67,0.66,0.71,0.75,0.74,0.75,0.68,0.64,0.72,0.64,0.61,0.63,0.57,0.58,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.77,0.72,0.85,0.89,0.9,0.87,0.87,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%
SEA 86, WAS 108	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.77,0.74,0.72,0.77,0.77,0.72,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.54,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.74,0.71,0.69,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.85,0.9,0.96,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%
CLE 80, GSW 108	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.68,0.65,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.57,0.61,0.64,0.76,0.7,0.58,0.71,0.69,0.79,0.77,0.82,0.87,0.82,0.9,0.89,0.96,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%