NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	101		Excitement	8.3 [237]		MVP	Eduardo Najera (GSW): +10.7%
Golden State Warriors	104		Comeback	4.4 [473]		LVP	Andre Miller (DEN): -26.5%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Camby	0.02	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	13	57%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Greg Buckner	0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	6	54%	0.03	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Rodney White	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01	0.07	-0.06	0.02	12	65%	0.03	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Bryon Russell	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nene	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03	0.02	-0.05	0.00	12	70%	0.10	4	-0.14	3	33%	-0.05
DerMarr Johnson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	4	45%	-0.01	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.03
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	0.02	-0.08	0.01	7	71%	0.07	2	-0.14	3	67%	-0.01
Earl Boykins	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	9	22%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	-0.27	0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.17,-0.24,-0.27	-0.19	-0.09	-0.01	25	37%	-0.16	4	-0.10	6	50%	-0.03

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.04	0.00	3	112%	0.15	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.05,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.03	0.00	11	83%	0.25	4	-0.15	7	57%	-0.04
Jason Richardson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.19,-0.19,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.05,-0.01	-0.01	-0.10	0.08	-0.01	16	47%	0.13	4	-0.14	6	67%	-0.02
Clifford Robinson	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.03	0.02	12	54%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Troy Murphy	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	0.01	14	47%	-0.01	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.03
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.04	-0.01	11	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	8	87%	0.03
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Speedy Claxton	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	5	20%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	2	25%	-0.10	0	0.00	4	0%	-0.12

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	2.5	29.2	15.8	27.2	2.4	39.5	140.7
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +25.8%

GSW +10.4%

GSW +7.5%

GSW +9.7%

DEN -3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	GSW	NBA	DEN	GSW	NBA
this game	15.7	14.0	15.5	104.1	107.2	104.0
season	14.8	15.0		103.8	102.3
opponent	15.2	15.6		104.7	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	16.8	15.8	16.2	14.3	15.7
GSW	13.2	15.5	14.5	12.8	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DerMarr Johnson	38	39	0.35	-0.85	1.21	0.03	11	-14	25	15.6	15.8	-0.15	14.6	13.5	1.08
Nene	73	72	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.08	5	-8	13	15.4	16.6	-1.20	14.8	11.7	3.08
Bryon Russell	23	26	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.05	0	-3	3	14.9	16.0	-1.06	12.8	14.4	-1.59
Greg Buckner	53	52	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.21	4	-7	11	16.0	15.4	0.57	14.7	13.1	1.56
Francisco Elson	13	15	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.03	-7	4	-11	17.2	15.5	1.74	12.9	14.2	-1.23
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	29	27	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.44	3	-6	9	15.7	15.7	0.00	12.3	14.6	-2.37
Andre Miller	90	89	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.43	1	-4	5	15.7	16.6	-0.92	13.8	16.0	-2.21
Earl Boykins	35	35	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.26	-9	6	-15	16.3	15.4	0.97	12.6	14.8	-2.19
Marcus Camby	70	70	-0.66	0.16	-0.81	-0.25	-14	11	-25	15.9	15.2	0.69	14.6	12.3	2.27
Rodney White	61	60	-0.67	0.17	-0.85	-0.41	-9	6	-15	15.4	16.2	-0.84	13.8	14.2	-0.31

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mickael Pietrus	67	66	0.96	-0.46	1.43	0.32	22	-19	41	13.4	15.1	-1.69	15.3	16.6	-1.36
Derek Fisher	50	51	0.86	-0.36	1.22	0.42	15	-12	27	12.9	15.1	-2.29	15.7	15.7	-0.03
Clifford Robinson	62	64	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.58	-6	9	-15	14.9	12.4	2.45	16.0	15.3	0.68
Troy Murphy	70	73	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.49	-6	9	-15	14.2	13.4	0.73	15.9	15.1	0.85
Calbert Cheaney	19	19	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.06	10	-7	17	12.9	14.2	-1.34	16.6	15.5	1.07
Jason Richardson	75	76	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.46	-8	11	-19	14.3	12.8	1.55	15.4	17.0	-1.69
Eduardo Najera	27	24	0.18	0.32	-0.13	-0.08	9	-6	15	13.4	14.2	-0.73	15.1	15.9	-0.85
Adonal Foyle	35	32	0.03	0.47	-0.43	-0.17	7	-4	11	12.4	14.9	-2.45	15.7	15.7	-0.00
Speedy Claxton	47	46	-0.36	0.86	-1.22	-0.01	-12	15	-27	15.1	12.9	2.29	15.7	15.7	0.03
Mike Dunleavy	33	34	-0.36	0.86	-1.22	0.11	-16	19	-35	14.8	13.5	1.33	16.5	15.3	1.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.37,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.5,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.64,0.61,0.74,0.8,0.73,0.7,0.77,0.69,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.48,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.44,0.33,0.38,0.3,0.32,0.24,0.27,0.26,0.41,0.67,0.81,0.84,0.83,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 86, PHI 90	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.67,0.75,0.68,0.76,0.74,0.81,0.84,0.73,0.72,0.77,0.7,0.69,0.61,0.62,0.62,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.36,0.42,0.52,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.41,0.6,0.75,0.78,0.83,0.83,1	91.8%
PHX 91, BKN 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.41,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.44,0.51,0.63,0.62,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.66,0.56,0.64,0.7,0.78,0.75,0.71,0.77,0.7,0.64,0.48,0.37,0.38,0.41,0.59,0.63,0.52,0.38,0.18,0.21,0.24,0.32,0.26,0.35,0.53,0.61,0.84,0.78,0.96,1	91.2%
DEN 96, BKN 102	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.68,0.73,0.71,0.69,0.58,0.67,0.58,0.68,0.6,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.38,0.2,0.32,0.41,0.59,0.54,0.81,0.93,0.98,1,1	90.7%