NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	77		Excitement	4.5 [953]		MVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): +5.7%
San Antonio Spurs	80		Comeback	1.0 [1206]		LVP	Rasheed Wallace (DET): -18.9%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.01	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,0.01	0.05	0.00	0.04	9	82%	0.12	4	-0.11	4	100%	0.03
Carlos Delfino	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	3	83%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Horace Jenkins	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	8	54%	0.00	1	-0.00	8	62%	-0.02
Lindsey Hunter	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	9	36%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Richard Hamilton	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05	-0.10	0.01	-0.04	14	29%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.00	-0.01	9	24%	-0.09	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.02
Tayshaun Prince	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	6	56%	0.02	5	-0.13	6	67%	-0.01
Rasheed Wallace	-0.19	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19	-0.18	-0.03	-0.02	18	26%	-0.16	2	-0.03	2	0%	-0.02

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06	0.06	-0.07	0.07	-0.06	18	47%	0.12	4	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	6	57%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Devin Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	6	42%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02	0.02	-0.06	0.02	-0.05	10	67%	0.12	6	-0.10	7	57%	-0.02
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.01	16	59%	0.03	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Tony Massenburg	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02	-0.02	-0.07	0.02	-0.03	4	18%	-0.02	0	0.00	3	67%	0.02
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03	-0.03	-0.13	0.00	-0.10	7	33%	-0.01	2	-0.02	7	43%	-0.03
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.12	-0.01	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	5	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	3.3	31.7	17.0	31.2	3.5	44.3	155.2
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +39.4%

SAS +8.7%

SAS +6.4%

DET -6.9%

SAS +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	SAS	NBA	DET	SAS	NBA
this game	15.6	14.7	15.5	81.1	84.2	104.0
season	16.7	16.3		103.5	105.8
opponent	15.6	15.9		98.4	98.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.9	16.1	16.8	13.5	15.6
SAS	12.9	15.2	13.9	17.2	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carlos Delfino	33	34	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.31	12	-15	27	13.9	16.5	-2.53	16.5	13.7	2.81
Lindsey Hunter	51	49	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.16	4	-7	11	15.6	15.6	0.04	13.3	16.2	-2.89
Horace Jenkins	3	3	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.01	-3	0	-3	11.0	15.7	-4.74	23.3	14.4	8.89
Antonio McDyess	49	48	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.30	3	-6	9	14.9	16.3	-1.43	14.7	14.8	-0.08
Ben Wallace	62	63	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.09	-9	6	-15	16.1	14.6	1.46	14.7	14.7	0.06
Chauncey Billups	57	58	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.23	-7	4	-11	16.3	14.5	1.82	15.3	13.9	1.41
Rasheed Wallace	79	79	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.44	0	-3	3	15.6	15.4	0.18	14.7	14.7	0.05
Richard Hamilton	69	69	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.27	-7	4	-11	15.3	16.2	-0.88	13.2	18.8	-5.62
Tayshaun Prince	72	72	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.28	-8	5	-13	16.2	13.7	2.44	15.5	12.3	3.20

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	76	77	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.29	8	-5	13	15.7	10.9	4.72	16.2	12.8	3.40
Manu Ginobili	71	70	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.36	5	-2	7	14.2	16.2	-1.98	15.2	16.6	-1.37
Bruce Bowen	67	67	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.11	13	-10	23	14.4	15.5	-1.10	16.4	13.5	2.91
Tony Parker	78	79	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.20	9	-6	15	14.4	16.1	-1.62	16.2	12.5	3.72
Malik Rose	61	60	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.48	-7	10	-17	14.1	15.9	-1.85	13.8	18.7	-4.95
Rasho Nesterovic	50	51	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.00	7	-4	11	14.4	15.1	-0.73	16.7	14.3	2.41
Brent Barry	13	13	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.11	-1	4	-5	13.5	14.9	-1.47	11.0	16.3	-5.32
Beno Udrih	17	16	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.21	-6	9	-15	16.1	14.4	1.62	12.5	16.2	-3.72
Tony Massenburg	3	2	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.05	-2	5	-7	10.0	14.9	-4.88	17.0	15.6	1.44
Devin Brown	39	40	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.25	-11	14	-25	16.6	13.4	3.20	16.3	15.1	1.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.61,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.63,0.68,0.64,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.67,0.75,0.84,0.88,0.92,0.93,0.93,0.96,0.93,0.92,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.93,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.92,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.95,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 88, PHI 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.69,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.71,0.65,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.78,0.86,0.91,0.95,0.97,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.98,0.94,0.9,0.96,0.99,1,1	96.0%
UTA 88, MIL 114	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.71,0.69,0.68,0.7,0.68,0.74,0.68,0.69,0.67,0.65,0.7,0.71,0.64,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.7,0.79,0.86,0.89,0.88,0.93,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%
SAC 90, MIN 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.67,0.66,0.61,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.71,0.69,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.8,0.84,0.84,0.92,0.91,0.92,0.91,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.89,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	95.6%