NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	67		Excitement	6.5 [562]		MVP	Bryon Russell (DEN): +19.7%
Denver Nuggets	76		Comeback	2.7 [706]		LVP	Darrell Armstrong (NOH): -28.5%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
J.R. Smith	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	2	125%	0.11	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	3	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Freije	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	10	48%	0.01	3	-0.09	3	100%	0.01
Junior Harrington	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	9	53%	0.06	4	-0.14	1	100%	0.01
David West	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.01	-0.06	0.03	8	50%	-0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Lee Nailon	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.07	-0.02	15	50%	0.01	4	-0.12	2	100%	0.01
David Wesley	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.03	-0.05	0.03	5	50%	-0.03	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
George Lynch	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.04	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	-0.29	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.26,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29	-0.17	-0.15	-0.03	14	27%	-0.19	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bryon Russell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.13,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.06	0.13	-0.00	9	67%	0.24	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.1,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.04	-0.01	16	67%	0.16	6	-0.19	1	100%	0.01
Nene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	5	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rodney White	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	10	36%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	8	53%	0.00	2	-0.08	3	67%	-0.01
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	4	25%	-0.07	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.07	-0.06	0.01	14	44%	-0.07	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	1.8	26.0	15.6	21.8	2.0	29.4	121.7
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +31.1%

NOH -2.2%

DEN +1.0%

DEN +16.9%

DEN +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	DEN	NBA	NOH	DEN	NBA
this game	16.7	16.6	15.5	77.0	88.4	104.0
season	16.5	14.8		97.7	103.8
opponent	15.6	15.7		102.3	105.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	17.2	17.2	16.9	15.6	16.7
DEN	17.1	16.3	18.2	15.0	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
J.R. Smith	18	17	0.20	-0.70	0.89	0.11	3	-12	15	14.0	17.4	-3.41	12.9	17.5	-4.62
George Lynch	30	27	0.16	-0.66	0.82	0.16	0	-9	9	16.8	16.6	0.20	17.2	16.3	0.92
Chris Andersen	31	28	0.10	-0.60	0.69	0.13	-1	-8	7	16.7	16.7	0.01	16.8	16.5	0.34
Junior Harrington	42	42	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.05	-4	-5	1	17.2	16.3	0.90	17.4	15.9	1.49
Matt Freije	6	6	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.04	-5	-4	-1	20.5	16.4	4.08	19.2	16.4	2.77
Lee Nailon	60	62	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.34	-1	-8	7	15.7	19.0	-3.28	15.7	18.9	-3.22
Darrell Armstrong	62	59	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.26	-7	-2	-5	16.5	17.3	-0.87	16.8	16.1	0.70
David West	66	67	-0.61	0.11	-0.73	-0.38	-8	-1	-7	17.4	14.6	2.81	16.9	15.5	1.37
David Wesley	53	55	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.35	-10	1	-11	17.2	15.9	1.34	16.7	16.4	0.32
P.J. Brown	67	67	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.34	-12	3	-15	16.8	16.4	0.39	16.7	16.2	0.56

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Camby	68	67	0.78	-0.28	1.05	0.37	14	-5	19	17.5	13.2	4.33	17.7	13.4	4.29
Andre Miller	66	67	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.33	9	0	9	16.4	17.3	-0.99	17.1	15.5	1.56
Kenyon Martin	56	57	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.28	8	1	7	15.1	19.4	-4.36	17.3	15.5	1.78
Bryon Russell	41	42	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.24	9	0	9	15.6	17.5	-1.83	16.4	17.0	-0.62
Earl Boykins	60	61	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.22	9	0	9	16.4	16.9	-0.47	16.5	17.2	-0.65
Rodney White	45	45	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.00	0	9	-9	17.5	15.6	1.83	17.0	16.4	0.62
Francisco Elson	7	8	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	-0.05	0	9	-9	12.9	16.9	-4.07	14.1	17.0	-2.84
Greg Buckner	47	47	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	-0.09	0	9	-9	16.9	16.3	0.57	16.1	17.4	-1.34
Nene	40	41	-0.22	0.72	-0.93	-0.10	-4	13	-17	18.1	15.3	2.86	15.1	18.1	-2.94

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.68,0.7,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.34,0.41,0.44,0.56,0.46,0.34,0.44,0.38,0.28,0.41,0.66,0.6,0.8,0.78,0.95,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 106, CHI 113	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.3,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.41,0.46,0.67,0.86,0.96,0.99,1,1	93.2%
MIN 108, SAS 112	0.5,0.5,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.54,0.56,0.65,0.67,0.65,0.7,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.59,0.63,0.72,0.71,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.6,0.52,0.42,0.52,0.46,0.41,0.45,0.48,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.39,0.42,0.64,0.76,0.73,0.93,0.85,0.85,0.92,1	92.3%
NJN 92, IND 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.69,0.73,0.74,0.7,0.74,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.57,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.44,0.52,0.48,0.37,0.44,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.48,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.81,0.79,0.96,0.99,1	92.3%