NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	117		Excitement	5.2 [818]		MVP	Jameer Nelson (ORL): +13.9%
Atlanta Hawks	99		Comeback	1.4 [444]		LVP	Antoine Walker (ATL): -14.2%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jameer Nelson	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.07	0.05	-0.02	8	69%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	9	58%	0.05	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Steve Francis	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	10	76%	0.17	6	-0.14	18	94%	0.04
Hedo Turkoglu	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	-0.01	0.02	7	75%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Grant Hill	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.02	-0.03	12	51%	0.04	1	-0.02	11	91%	0.05
Dwight Howard	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.01	11	71%	0.11	4	-0.09	12	67%	0.01
Pat Garrity	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	2	60%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Mario Kasun	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Hunter	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Kelvin Cato	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.11	-0.00	-0.02	2	17%	-0.03	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Delk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.03	-0.01	15	61%	0.13	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Kenny Anderson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	0.00	0.02	5	82%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jelani McCoy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donta Smith	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0	75%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Jon Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	3	80%	0.03	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Jason Collier	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	12	50%	0.03	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Josh Childress	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.09	-0.01	-0.04	5	31%	-0.04	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.01
Al Harrington	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	0.00	-0.01	14	45%	-0.01	3	-0.06	5	20%	-0.07
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.14	-0.04	-0.04	18	49%	0.03	7	-0.17	5	40%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.0	0.3	37.2	15.5	29.3	2.6	34.9	147.8
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +5.9%

ORL +30.8%

ORL +8.5%

ATL -1.1%

ORL +5.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	ATL	NBA	ORL	ATL	NBA
this game	15.1	14.4	15.5	119.4	102.1	104.0
season	14.3	15.6		102.9	98.1
opponent	15.1	15.5		108.1	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.6	14.4	15.0	15.6	15.1
ATL	12.1	15.6	12.7	18.0	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hedo Turkoglu	59	60	0.44	0.06	0.39	-0.05	17	1	16	15.0	15.4	-0.36	15.3	12.9	2.42
Dwight Howard	85	84	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.06	12	6	6	15.0	16.3	-1.34	14.2	15.6	-1.41
Steve Francis	66	67	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.06	11	7	4	14.9	15.6	-0.72	14.4	14.3	0.08
Tony Battie	43	42	0.31	0.19	0.13	-0.07	13	5	8	13.6	16.3	-2.74	14.6	14.2	0.40
DeShawn Stevenson	62	60	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.02	10	8	2	14.9	15.6	-0.70	13.3	16.2	-2.86
Grant Hill	68	68	0.27	0.23	0.05	-0.02	10	8	2	15.4	14.6	0.78	14.5	14.1	0.46
Kelvin Cato	46	45	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.03	6	12	-6	16.0	14.4	1.66	14.5	14.3	0.14
Jameer Nelson	33	31	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.09	8	10	-2	15.5	14.9	0.61	14.4	14.4	0.04
Mario Kasun	3	3	0.03	0.47	-0.43	-0.05	3	15	-12	18.3	15.0	3.29	18.7	14.3	4.41
Pat Garrity	19	19	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.03	2	16	-14	16.3	14.9	1.39	14.3	14.4	-0.16
Brandon Hunter	6	6	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.00	-2	20	-22	18.5	14.9	3.58	12.8	14.5	-1.66

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jelani McCoy	26	25	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.05	2	-20	22	13.8	14.6	-0.75	15.9	14.9	0.99
Donta Smith	3	4	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.06	-3	-15	12	20.7	14.2	6.48	15.7	15.1	0.63
Josh Childress	45	45	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.08	-4	-14	10	13.7	15.0	-1.35	15.7	14.7	1.05
Boris Diaw	6	7	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.04	-4	-14	10	15.0	14.4	0.65	15.0	15.2	-0.15
Kenny Anderson	38	38	-0.10	-0.41	0.31	-0.07	-1	-17	16	14.4	14.4	0.00	16.6	14.2	2.43
Josh Smith	32	32	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.04	-7	-11	4	15.3	14.0	1.33	16.7	14.4	2.29
Jon Barry	39	39	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.04	-11	-7	-4	14.8	14.1	0.63	14.2	15.8	-1.64
Al Harrington	85	87	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.04	-11	-7	-4	14.3	15.2	-0.98	14.8	17.9	-3.12
Tony Delk	58	57	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	0.03	-14	-4	-10	14.2	14.6	-0.37	14.1	16.6	-2.52
Jason Collier	66	68	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	0.10	-18	0	-18	14.7	13.7	1.05	15.1	15.3	-0.27
Antoine Walker	87	88	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.01	-19	1	-20	14.1	16.6	-2.46	15.0	16.8	-1.85

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.37,0.38,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.35,0.23,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.25,0.32,0.23,0.25,0.2,0.19,0.21,0.2,0.24,0.17,0.22,0.36,0.34,0.18,0.15,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 119, BKN 104	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.48,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.3,0.27,0.22,0.28,0.28,0.27,0.22,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.21,0.26,0.23,0.25,0.28,0.2,0.36,0.42,0.3,0.21,0.11,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.0%
CHH 102, ORL 85	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.61,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.36,0.29,0.28,0.27,0.3,0.22,0.26,0.21,0.17,0.26,0.27,0.21,0.25,0.24,0.15,0.16,0.28,0.26,0.19,0.15,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0	94.5%
BOS 113, NYK 99	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.62,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.46,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.31,0.28,0.3,0.22,0.25,0.23,0.2,0.25,0.17,0.23,0.18,0.22,0.09,0.1,0.29,0.25,0.22,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.0%