NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Bobcats	116		Excitement	13.3 [9]		MVP	Primoz Brezec (CHA): +32.9%
Detroit Pistons	117		Comeback	57.1 [26]		LVP	Smush Parker (DET): -53.2%

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Primoz Brezec	0.33	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.33	0.14	0.20	0.02	8	88%	0.33	0	0.00	9	89%	0.11
Jason Kapono	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.10	0.09	-0.00	14	69%	0.24	1	-0.05	8	87%	0.01
Melvin Ely	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	0	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Jamal Sampson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Keith Bogans	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.11	-0.01	-0.02	7	25%	-0.06	2	-0.03	2	0%	-0.04
Brevin Knight	-0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.03	0.00	8	30%	-0.09	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Gerald Wallace	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,-0.06,-0.17,-0.17	-0.02	-0.15	0.00	4	40%	-0.17	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.13
Eddie House	-0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.22,-0.34,-0.24	-0.03	-0.21	-0.00	10	55%	-0.10	3	-0.14	2	50%	-0.06
Steven Smith	-0.42	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.13,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,0.05,-0.21,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.42,-0.42	-0.00	-0.43	-0.01	18	55%	-0.16	3	-0.26	4	100%	0.02
Emeka Okafor	-0.48	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.07,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.48	-0.06	-0.41	0.01	16	45%	-0.34	3	-0.14	1	100%	0.01

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.1,-0.1,0.13	0.13	-0.07	0.19	-0.01	15	37%	0.16	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.03
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.07	-0.00	9	67%	0.20	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.04	0.01	15	63%	0.15	2	-0.08	8	50%	-0.05
Darko Milicic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	7	56%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Richard Hamilton	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	18	54%	0.01	3	-0.10	20	100%	0.14
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.22,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.06	0.01	14	43%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Smush Parker	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.22,-0.31,-0.18,-0.18,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.53,-0.53	-0.53	-0.12	-0.41	0.00	13	44%	-0.19	4	-0.34	6	50%	-0.08

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1		OT2	Total
this game	27.0	1.7	34.5	15.6	26.1	2.5	39.9	1.6	12.1	1.5	20.5	183.1
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	1.9	17.4	1.9	17.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +56.2%

CHA -10.9%

CHA -8.1%

DET +6.8%

DET +6.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	DET	NBA	CHA	DET	NBA
this game	17.0	14.9	15.5	106.4	107.3	104.0
season	15.5	16.7		99.0	103.5
opponent	15.9	15.1		98.9	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
CHA	16.2	16.0	20.2	16.8	17.9	17.3
DET	14.5	14.0	14.1	14.5	19.9	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Kapono	68	70	0.19	-0.69	0.88	-0.10	10	-11	21	16.6	17.6	-0.98	15.3	14.2	1.08
Melvin Ely	16	17	0.17	-0.67	0.84	-0.12	10	-11	21	14.8	17.4	-2.56	17.4	14.5	2.94
Brevin Knight	68	67	0.10	-0.60	0.69	0.27	-6	5	-11	18.4	14.8	3.60	14.5	15.6	-1.17
Keith Bogans	42	43	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.30	-8	7	-15	18.4	16.1	2.32	14.9	14.9	-0.03
Primoz Brezec	70	71	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.06	-9	8	-17	17.2	16.6	0.68	14.8	15.2	-0.40
Steven Smith	80	80	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.55	9	-10	19	17.2	16.6	0.61	15.0	14.7	0.28
Jamal Sampson	44	43	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.53	4	-5	9	16.1	17.6	-1.52	14.3	15.3	-0.99
Emeka Okafor	76	75	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.40	-6	5	-11	17.6	15.7	1.87	15.1	14.5	0.62
Gerald Wallace	34	32	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.40	-10	9	-19	16.7	17.1	-0.38	13.9	15.4	-1.44
Eddie House	47	47	-0.86	0.36	-1.23	-0.89	1	-2	3	14.5	18.9	-4.34	15.1	14.8	0.35

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Smush Parker	70	70	0.98	-0.48	1.46	0.77	7	-6	13	14.9	15.0	-0.07	17.3	16.5	0.72
Darko Milicic	16	15	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.59	-3	4	-7	14.6	15.0	-0.43	13.5	17.6	-4.02
Tayshaun Prince	100	99	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.45	1	0	1	15.0	14.4	0.53	17.3	14.3	2.97
Darvin Ham	56	55	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.40	2	-1	3	14.9	15.0	-0.11	16.7	17.3	-0.66
Lindsey Hunter	70	70	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.49	-2	3	-5	14.3	16.0	-1.63	16.1	18.6	-2.48
Rasheed Wallace	54	57	0.11	0.39	-0.27	-0.00	4	-3	7	15.6	14.3	1.25	17.5	16.4	1.14
Antonio McDyess	80	81	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.02	-1	2	-3	15.2	14.1	1.07	17.4	15.9	1.44
Richard Hamilton	91	90	-0.41	0.91	-1.31	-0.32	-3	4	-7	14.4	17.7	-3.28	17.2	16.0	1.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.57,0.51,0.61,0.61,0.53,0.58,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.29,0.29,0.3,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.29,0.32,0.38,0.41,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.43,0.34,0.29,0.16,0.21,0.29,0.28,0.39,0.11,0.04,0.16,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.43,0.42,0.5,0.38,0.37,0.68,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 95, NOH 99	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.27,0.41,0.42,0.35,0.26,0.25,0.3,0.19,0.18,0.23,0.25,0.34,0.19,0.25,0.26,0.34,0.33,0.24,0.27,0.21,0.35,0.23,0.24,0.11,0.09,0.28,1	87.8%
CLE 112, CHA 105	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.59,0.65,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.46,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.25,0.31,0.3,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.21,0.22,0.33,0.37,0.31,0.28,0.33,0.39,0.38,0.25,0.31,0.27,0.16,0.27,0.3,0.22,0.29,0.13,0.09,0.17,0.12,0.33,0.25,0.06,0.04,0.01,0	87.7%
SAS 90, MEM 92	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.64,0.64,0.63,0.67,0.62,0.53,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.42,0.35,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.21,0.22,0.3,0.33,0.35,0.32,0.21,0.34,0.23,0.28,0.26,0.19,0.18,0.25,0.23,0.36,0.19,0.22,0.45,0.21,0.16,0.26,1	87.6%