NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	97		Excitement	4.2 [1000]		MVP	Wally Szczerbiak (MIN): +9.2%
Minnesota Timberwolves	108		Comeback	1.4 [1007]		LVP	Shaquille O'Neal (MIA): -16.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damon Jones	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	-0.00	0.02	7	79%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	15	64%	0.05	3	-0.04	9	78%	-0.01
Udonis Haslem	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.07	0.01	0.07	5	100%	0.05	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.00
Wesley Person	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	37%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	3	57%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.00
Shandon Anderson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	6	37%	-0.04	1	-0.00	4	100%	0.00
Malik Allen	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.00	-0.01	0.04	8	56%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Eddie Jones	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	8	17%	-0.11	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.01	-0.01	15	44%	-0.09	4	-0.08	15	53%	-0.06

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wally Szczerbiak	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.01	-0.01	14	62%	0.09	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Fred Hoiberg	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.01	6	58%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.02	17	58%	0.10	2	-0.06	9	100%	0.04
Latrell Sprewell	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	5	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Troy Hudson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	12	50%	0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mark Madsen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Cassell	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	16	51%	0.04	2	-0.05	5	100%	0.02
Trenton Hassell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.03	0.00	0.04	5	64%	-0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	0	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Eddie Griffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	0.04	6	50%	-0.04	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Olowokandi	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	-0.00	-0.01	7	28%	-0.07	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	1.5	32.5	15.3	28.7	2.3	26.6	132.7
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +19.1%

MIN +14.7%

MIN +10.8%

MIN +5.0%

MIN +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MIN	NBA	MIA	MIN	NBA
this game	15.0	16.5	15.5	105.4	118.7	104.0
season	15.7	15.8		107.9	106.2
opponent	15.9	15.5		104.6	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.8	14.1	15.4	17.1	15.0
MIN	14.4	17.2	14.6	20.8	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wesley Person	13	14	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.24	8	-19	27	15.8	14.8	0.92	20.6	15.8	4.89
Shandon Anderson	30	31	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.19	5	-16	21	13.8	15.5	-1.75	16.8	16.3	0.51
Udonis Haslem	36	38	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.26	5	-16	21	14.9	15.0	-0.10	17.6	15.7	1.84
Michael Doleac	24	24	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.14	1	-12	13	14.6	15.1	-0.48	19.5	15.4	4.01
Damon Jones	42	41	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	0.03	-6	-5	-1	15.3	14.7	0.52	16.5	16.5	0.01
Keyon Dooling	17	18	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.21	2	-13	15	14.4	15.1	-0.77	19.8	15.7	4.15
Rasual Butler	39	39	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.03	-11	0	-11	14.8	15.1	-0.23	14.5	18.0	-3.58
Dwyane Wade	71	68	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.01	-10	-1	-9	15.4	13.7	1.70	16.8	15.5	1.32
Shaquille O'Neal	68	67	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.04	-12	1	-13	15.1	14.6	0.48	15.4	19.5	-4.01
Malik Allen	56	53	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.08	-16	5	-21	15.0	14.9	0.10	15.7	17.6	-1.84
Eddie Jones	64	62	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	0.05	-21	10	-31	15.0	14.9	0.07	15.4	19.0	-3.61

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Garnett	69	70	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.01	19	-8	27	15.6	19.4	-3.83	14.5	16.6	-2.18
Sam Cassell	61	61	0.45	0.05	0.41	-0.01	16	-5	21	15.6	18.3	-2.63	14.6	15.7	-1.15
Latrell Sprewell	49	50	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.02	14	-3	17	15.6	17.5	-1.89	15.0	15.0	0.05
Michael Olowokandi	41	43	0.36	0.14	0.23	-0.05	14	-3	17	15.0	17.8	-2.78	15.1	14.9	0.17
Wally Szczerbiak	59	59	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.04	9	2	7	15.2	18.9	-3.75	14.4	16.0	-1.55
Trenton Hassell	39	40	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.15	2	9	-7	17.7	15.6	2.08	15.3	14.7	0.66
Fred Hoiberg	35	36	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.18	-3	14	-17	18.6	15.2	3.45	15.1	14.9	0.13
Ervin Johnson	11	11	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.04	1	10	-9	14.6	16.8	-2.13	13.2	15.2	-2.04
Troy Hudson	28	29	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.18	-5	16	-21	18.5	15.6	2.88	15.9	14.5	1.39
Anthony Carter	2	2	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.01	0	11	-11	15.0	16.5	-1.54	13.0	15.0	-2.02
Eddie Griffin	26	25	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.13	-4	15	-19	20.2	15.0	5.16	15.6	14.7	0.85
Mark Madsen	35	34	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.22	-8	19	-27	18.0	15.6	2.38	16.5	14.1	2.37

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.55,0.57,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.74,0.76,0.75,0.69,0.63,0.68,0.64,0.69,0.77,0.79,0.8,0.78,0.71,0.77,0.82,0.82,0.86,0.87,0.91,0.92,0.92,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 81, PHX 105	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.71,0.66,0.68,0.73,0.69,0.71,0.69,0.78,0.73,0.73,0.77,0.75,0.78,0.8,0.77,0.76,0.78,0.85,0.86,0.8,0.91,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.8%
POR 75, SAS 106	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.66,0.65,0.6,0.66,0.63,0.69,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.77,0.82,0.8,0.8,0.8,0.8,0.86,0.81,0.87,0.9,0.88,0.93,0.94,0.93,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.8%
WAS 73, IND 93	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.64,0.7,0.77,0.76,0.8,0.77,0.69,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.68,0.77,0.85,0.81,0.86,0.87,0.93,0.91,0.88,0.94,0.93,0.94,0.93,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%