NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	89		Excitement	8.5 [145]		MVP	Donyell Marshall (TOR): +43.3%
Milwaukee Bucks	87		Comeback	6.3 [100]		LVP	Vince Carter (TOR): -34.6%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donyell Marshall	0.43	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.23,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.43,0.43	0.19	0.25	0.01	11	100%	0.54	2	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Rose	0.32	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,0.32	-0.10	0.42	0.00	12	40%	0.43	4	-0.12	1	100%	0.01
Michael Curry	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.05	0.00	2	100%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chris Bosh	0.02	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.02,0.02	0.07	-0.05	0.01	14	60%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Dion Glover	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	6	57%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Corie Blount	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	4	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.03	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	-0.35	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.11,-0.2,-0.28,-0.25,-0.25,-0.35	-0.08	-0.27	-0.00	23	46%	-0.10	4	-0.25	4	100%	0.04

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,0.01	0.01	-0.07	0.07	-0.01	18	40%	0.05	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.00	3	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Damon Jones	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	7	36%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	14	44%	-0.07	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Keith Van Horn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	6	17%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brevin Knight	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	6	33%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0.02,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	0.01	-0.09	0.02	15	61%	0.01	2	-0.10	14	79%	-0.01
Brian Skinner	0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.05,-0.13	-0.13	-0.02	-0.13	-0.01	16	47%	0.05	1	-0.18	2	0%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.4	26.4	15.5	23.3	1.7	35.1	126.6
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +91.1%

TOR +3.4%

MIL -43.4%

MIL -5.7%

TOR +4.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIL	NBA	TOR	MIL	NBA
this game	16.0	16.5	15.7	100.0	98.9	100.5
season	16.8	15.3		94.8	103.6
opponent	15.5	15.7		103.3	98.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.3	17.1	17.1	14.7	16.0
MIL	14.7	14.2	18.0	19.8	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jalen Rose	75	72	0.85	-0.35	1.20	0.53	11	-9	20	16.4	14.4	2.00	16.2	17.9	-1.76
Chris Bosh	64	62	0.83	-0.33	1.17	0.48	12	-10	22	16.5	14.8	1.68	16.7	16.0	0.71
Donyell Marshall	74	76	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.30	12	-10	22	15.9	17.0	-1.15	16.8	14.7	2.03
Michael Curry	47	45	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.47	5	-3	8	16.3	15.8	0.49	16.4	16.6	-0.11
Vince Carter	76	75	0.52	-0.01	0.53	0.49	1	1	0	15.1	21.6	-6.52	16.8	14.8	1.94
Dion Glover	25	23	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.04	-4	6	-10	18.3	15.2	3.11	15.7	16.8	-1.03
Morris Peterson	35	37	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.01	-5	7	-12	15.7	16.3	-0.54	15.8	17.0	-1.14
Roger Mason Jr.	19	20	-0.33	0.83	-1.16	-0.10	-8	10	-18	15.8	16.1	-0.32	18.5	15.9	2.59
Corie Blount	30	30	-0.42	0.92	-1.34	-0.01	-14	16	-30	15.5	16.3	-0.87	15.6	17.0	-1.42

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keith Van Horn	31	32	0.07	-0.57	0.63	0.01	2	-4	6	16.0	16.8	-0.72	17.2	15.4	1.74
Dan Gadzuric	17	18	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.02	1	-3	4	12.8	17.4	-4.56	19.4	15.2	4.19
Brevin Knight	40	40	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.08	-6	4	-10	16.4	16.6	-0.23	16.9	15.3	1.60
Joe Smith	61	63	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.25	3	-5	8	16.9	15.6	1.26	16.1	15.8	0.28
Brian Skinner	66	64	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.34	0	-2	2	17.3	14.1	3.21	15.2	18.2	-3.00
Toni Kukoc	32	32	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.16	-8	6	-14	16.1	16.7	-0.69	16.2	16.0	0.22
Damon Jones	48	49	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.52	4	-6	10	16.6	16.4	0.23	15.3	16.9	-1.60
Michael Redd	66	67	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.55	-1	-1	0	17.2	14.3	2.91	15.0	19.1	-4.11
Desmond Mason	79	80	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.46	-5	3	-8	16.1	20.2	-4.15	16.2	14.2	2.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.41,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.35,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.48,0.55,0.72,0.76,0.63,0.72,0.81,0.78,0.82,0.8,0.85,0.83,0.76,0.54,0.69,0.79,0.67,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 96, NOH 93	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.53,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.41,0.46,0.4,0.49,0.55,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.73,0.74,0.78,0.79,0.83,0.91,0.92,0.81,0.94,0.81,0.79,0.69,0.28,0	91.7%
LAL 93, NOH 91	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.57,0.54,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.38,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.46,0.5,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.65,0.76,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.7,0.66,0.76,0.79,0.83,0.85,0.78,0.61,0.81,0.57,0.16,0	91.3%
LAC 89, MIN 85	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.37,0.39,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.48,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.78,0.79,0.85,0.84,0.86,0.77,0.93,0.87,0.85,0.78,0.86,0.84,0.67,0.26,0	91.3%