NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	89		Excitement	8.0 [229]		MVP	Jeff McInnis (CLE): +14.4%
Cleveland Cavaliers	93		Comeback	3.9 [427]		LVP	Michael Redd (MIL): -18.6%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keith Van Horn	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,0.03,0.03,0	-0.02	0.03	0.00	13	54%	0.10	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.03
Daniel Santiago	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damon Jones	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	9	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Brevin Knight	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	2	67%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Toni Kukoc	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	4	50%	-0.00	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Brian Skinner	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	0.01	-0.02	6	31%	-0.04	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.01
Dan Gadzuric	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	4	30%	-0.03	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Desmond Mason	-0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.06	-0.12	-0.01	21	50%	-0.07	3	-0.09	8	87%	0.02
Joe Smith	-0.18	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.14,-0.18	-0.09	-0.10	-0.00	14	33%	-0.16	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.05
Michael Redd	-0.19	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.19	0.01	-0.20	-0.00	12	50%	-0.17	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeff McInnis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.01,0.01,0.14	0.14	0.01	0.11	-0.02	16	50%	0.24	1	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Boozer	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.04	0.00	14	62%	0.12	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.02
LeBron James	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.09,0.07,0.06	0.06	-0.00	0.07	0.01	20	53%	0.08	1	-0.02	11	73%	-0.00
Ira Newble	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.01	7	57%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Lee Nailon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeSagana Diop	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Ollie	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kedrick Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dajuan Wagner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	14	47%	-0.02	3	-0.07	10	100%	0.11

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	2.4	28.4	15.5	23.4	1.7	39.2	134.4
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +79.1%

MIL -5.6%

MIL -33.9%

CLE +7.6%

CLE +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	CLE	NBA	MIL	CLE	NBA
this game	17.5	14.9	15.7	100.0	104.5	100.5
season	15.3	15.7		103.6	99.8
opponent	15.5	15.5		102.3	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	19.6	14.2	18.5	17.9	17.5
CLE	14.0	16.4	14.9	14.2	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brevin Knight	28	28	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.18	8	-12	20	15.6	18.3	-2.65	16.4	14.2	2.18
Daniel Santiago	3	2	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.01	-1	-3	2	11.7	17.7	-6.00	23.0	14.7	8.29
Brian Skinner	45	45	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.13	-9	5	-14	19.0	15.9	3.07	13.6	16.2	-2.58
Dan Gadzuric	30	30	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.26	4	-8	12	17.2	17.6	-0.34	17.5	13.6	3.87
Toni Kukoc	35	35	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.27	2	-6	8	15.6	18.7	-3.11	16.2	14.1	2.14
Keith Van Horn	47	47	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.50	9	-13	22	15.0	20.2	-5.12	15.5	14.2	1.25
Desmond Mason	78	78	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.38	1	-5	6	17.7	15.5	2.19	14.6	17.2	-2.60
Joe Smith	50	50	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.05	-11	7	-18	18.7	15.8	2.92	13.9	16.2	-2.23
Michael Redd	68	69	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.18	-11	7	-18	18.2	15.0	3.16	14.4	16.6	-2.26
Damon Jones	61	61	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.20	-12	8	-20	18.3	15.6	2.65	14.2	16.4	-2.18

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carlos Boozer	74	74	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.20	17	-13	30	14.9	14.8	0.12	17.7	16.3	1.36
LeBron James	85	84	0.67	-0.17	0.83	0.34	11	-7	18	14.7	19.0	-4.29	17.5	16.0	1.55
Jeff McInnis	79	78	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.35	9	-5	14	14.6	17.6	-3.04	17.7	16.1	1.56
Ira Newble	53	51	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.12	10	-6	16	13.9	16.4	-2.46	18.5	16.1	2.32
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	73	75	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.09	11	-7	18	14.8	15.2	-0.35	17.9	15.3	2.58
Kevin Ollie	28	29	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.24	3	1	2	14.6	15.0	-0.48	16.5	17.9	-1.40
Tony Battie	19	18	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.35	-7	11	-18	14.8	14.9	-0.07	16.9	17.6	-0.65
Dajuan Wagner	10	11	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.04	-5	9	-14	17.6	14.6	3.04	16.1	17.7	-1.56
Kedrick Brown	4	5	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	0.04	-7	11	-18	19.0	14.7	4.29	16.0	17.5	-1.55
Lee Nailon	10	10	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	0.07	-11	15	-26	18.2	14.5	3.72	14.4	17.8	-3.45
DeSagana Diop	10	10	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	0.07	-11	15	-26	18.2	14.5	3.72	14.4	17.8	-3.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.55,0.64,0.6,0.65,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.39,0.3,0.3,0.37,0.45,0.4,0.39,0.33,0.3,0.35,0.48,0.41,0.31,0.33,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.38,0.62,0.68,0.64,0.81,0.82,0.75,0.71,0.35,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 81, MIN 88	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.59,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.55,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.32,0.39,0.31,0.37,0.28,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.53,0.68,0.74,0.76,0.72,0.69,0.54,0.68,0.85,1	89.6%
CLE 98, LAL 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.65,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.61,0.63,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.41,0.38,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.54,0.38,0.48,0.7,0.73,0.69,0.76,0.67,0.53,0.36,0.57,0.58,1	89.6%
MIN 100, UTA 107	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.55,0.61,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.6,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.29,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.33,0.44,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.7,0.76,0.91,0.61,0.54,0.59,0.74,1	89.5%