NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	103		Excitement	7.3 [351]		MVP	Damon Jones (MIL): +26.8%
New Jersey Nets	98		Comeback	9.9 [69]		LVP	Jason Collins (NJN): -16.8%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damon Jones	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.22	0.07	0.02	10	105%	0.30	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Michael Redd	0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.14	0.03	0.10	-0.00	18	54%	0.16	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.03
Desmond Mason	0.11	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,0.11,0.11	0.04	0.07	-0.00	12	64%	0.23	2	-0.12	4	100%	0.09
Dan Gadzuric	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Brevin Knight	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	4	50%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	4	30%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Brian Skinner	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.06	-0.01	12	42%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	6	47%	-0.02	2	-0.07	3	100%	0.02
Keith Van Horn	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.15,-0.13	-0.01	-0.12	0.00	8	59%	-0.04	2	-0.10	6	100%	0.04

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rodney Rogers	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.27,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.19	0.00	0.02	18	72%	0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	-0.00	0.00	3	133%	0.21	1	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.04	0.03	-0.02	8	37%	0.07	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kerry Kittles	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	9	60%	0.04	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Lucious Harris	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	8	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Richard Jefferson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.07,-0.09,-0.07	-0.07	0.03	-0.11	-0.01	18	57%	0.09	1	-0.16	8	62%	-0.05
Jason Collins	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.17	-0.17	-0.05	-0.11	0.01	5	40%	-0.10	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	0.7	26.4	15.4	21.8	1.8	34.2	124.5
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NJN -11.2%

MIL +34.4%

MIL +10.9%

MIL +12.3%

MIL +3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	NJN	NBA	MIL	NJN	NBA
this game	16.6	16.5	15.7	117.0	114.0	100.5
season	15.3	15.3		103.6	98.1
opponent	16.2	15.5		95.2	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	18.1	15.3	19.4	14.3	16.6
NJN	17.0	16.0	17.5	15.7	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Skinner	62	63	0.82	-0.32	1.15	0.33	17	-12	29	17.0	15.6	1.47	16.9	15.4	1.50
Keith Van Horn	57	54	0.73	-0.23	0.95	0.46	9	-4	13	15.7	18.3	-2.59	15.9	17.5	-1.61
Desmond Mason	65	66	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.32	10	-5	15	17.0	15.7	1.30	17.2	14.2	2.92
Damon Jones	67	65	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.36	2	3	-1	17.4	14.1	3.31	16.3	17.0	-0.68
Michael Redd	75	73	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.38	-5	10	-15	17.0	14.2	2.80	15.8	20.4	-4.59
Brevin Knight	21	21	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.01	3	2	1	14.1	17.4	-3.31	17.0	16.3	0.68
Toni Kukoc	38	35	0.02	0.48	-0.47	-0.01	1	4	-3	14.8	18.0	-3.26	16.5	16.5	0.04
Joe Smith	29	30	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.09	0	5	-5	19.0	15.4	3.56	17.7	15.8	1.91
Dan Gadzuric	26	23	-0.32	0.82	-1.15	0.03	-12	17	-29	15.6	17.0	-1.47	15.4	16.9	-1.50

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rodney Rogers	62	64	0.34	-0.84	1.19	-0.01	12	-17	29	16.9	15.4	1.54	17.4	14.5	2.91
Kerry Kittles	54	55	0.28	-0.78	1.06	0.11	6	-11	17	17.2	15.3	1.82	18.2	14.0	4.23
Lucious Harris	51	54	0.28	-0.78	1.06	-0.01	10	-15	25	16.6	16.3	0.29	18.2	14.0	4.21
Aaron Williams	26	27	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.08	-6	1	-7	17.0	16.3	0.68	14.9	17.4	-2.49
Jason Collins	59	60	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.43	1	-6	7	16.5	16.6	-0.10	17.5	14.7	2.73
Richard Jefferson	70	72	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.32	-5	0	-5	16.2	17.7	-1.47	17.3	13.7	3.58
Brandon Armstrong	26	26	-0.68	0.17	-0.85	-0.41	-9	4	-13	15.5	16.9	-1.36	13.8	17.8	-3.93
Kenyon Martin	41	41	-0.89	0.39	-1.28	-0.39	-17	12	-29	16.0	16.9	-0.84	14.1	18.8	-4.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.58,0.47,0.51,0.62,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.75,0.71,0.69,0.64,0.76,0.64,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.8,0.82,0.81,0.9,0.79,0.67,0.68,0.79,0.76,0.82,0.69,0.84,0.77,0.37,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 97, UTA 92	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.43,0.47,0.55,0.62,0.6,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.64,0.61,0.74,0.79,0.76,0.74,0.79,0.81,0.78,0.78,0.8,0.81,0.79,0.76,0.73,0.62,0.79,0.77,0.26,0	93.6%
OKC 115, MIN 111	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.65,0.6,0.51,0.6,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.67,0.74,0.72,0.69,0.83,0.73,0.68,0.62,0.76,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.87,0.91,0.86,0.72,0.68,0.59,0.71,0.6,0.69,0.79,0.67,0.42,0	91.7%
NOH 102, NJN 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.64,0.63,0.56,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.66,0.59,0.59,0.69,0.81,0.79,0.92,0.87,0.91,0.83,0.85,0.9,0.8,0.78,0.61,0.63,0.78,0.27,0	91.2%