NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	87		Excitement	9.3 [93]		MVP	Jalen Rose (TOR): +60.0%
Cleveland Cavaliers	86		Comeback	6.8 [97]		LVP	Zydrunas Ilgauskas (CLE): -20.8%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jalen Rose	0.60	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.18,-0.18,0.6	-0.10	0.68	-0.01	18	42%	0.70	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Donyell Marshall	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.03	-0.01	7	72%	0.12	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Corie Blount	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Archibald	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0	100%	0.02	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Vince Carter	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.01,0,0,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.1,-0.04	0.01	-0.03	0.02	28	54%	0.06	4	-0.10	3	67%	-0.00
Chris Bosh	-0.12	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.02	0.00	11	42%	-0.03	3	-0.09	4	75%	0.01
Milt Palacio	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	6	23%	-0.09	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Morris Peterson	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.21,-0.21	-0.10	-0.10	-0.00	9	33%	-0.15	2	-0.05	3	33%	-0.03

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeff McInnis	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.04	-0.00	16	50%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	0.05	0.00	5	40%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeSagana Diop	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Boozer	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.03	0.00	19	46%	0.05	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Kedrick Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.04	0.00	4	62%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.21,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.23,-0.23,-0.19,-0.19,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.25,-0.11,-0.03	-0.03	-0.14	0.13	0.01	17	44%	0.05	3	-0.08	14	79%	0.12
Kevin Ollie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Lee Nailon	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	5	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ira Newble	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	4	60%	0.00	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.09	-0.11	0.00	16	41%	-0.09	3	-0.12	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	3.7	32.0	18.8	29.1	3.5	34.1	144.3
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +69.3%

CLE -25.5%

CLE -5.5%

TOR +13.5%

CLE -1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	CLE	NBA	TOR	CLE	NBA
this game	14.4	16.4	15.7	92.6	92.5	100.5
season	16.8	15.7		94.8	99.8
opponent	15.5	15.7		102.3	98.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	13.9	15.1	14.2	14.5	14.4
CLE	16.7	15.5	15.2	18.2	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vince Carter	79	76	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.61	-2	3	-5	14.1	16.3	-2.24	16.3	16.8	-0.49
Morris Peterson	63	63	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.52	0	1	-1	14.0	15.4	-1.35	15.6	18.0	-2.36
Donyell Marshall	78	78	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.37	5	-4	9	14.1	16.1	-1.95	16.0	18.1	-2.11
Jalen Rose	73	73	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.46	2	-1	3	14.6	13.9	0.70	16.7	15.2	1.42
Chris Bosh	70	69	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.62	-10	11	-21	15.2	12.2	3.01	16.8	15.1	1.67
Corie Blount	35	36	0.16	0.34	-0.17	-0.04	7	-6	13	14.5	14.4	0.06	16.1	16.6	-0.51
Michael Curry	35	35	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.07	8	-7	15	15.7	13.7	1.97	17.8	15.5	2.35
Robert Archibald	5	3	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.01	0	1	-1	8.6	14.8	-6.18	19.0	16.3	2.72
Milt Palacio	32	32	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	-0.10	-5	6	-11	14.5	14.4	0.08	15.8	16.7	-0.89

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	70	73	0.43	-0.93	1.36	0.22	7	-8	15	16.5	16.0	0.49	14.5	14.4	0.08
Jeff McInnis	73	74	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.21	5	-6	11	16.0	17.7	-1.70	14.5	14.3	0.12
DeSagana Diop	18	18	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.02	-4	3	-7	16.9	16.2	0.72	15.0	14.3	0.68
Kevin Ollie	15	14	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.03	-4	3	-7	16.7	16.3	0.44	14.5	14.4	0.06
Lee Nailon	23	23	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.07	-9	8	-17	17.4	16.0	1.42	13.9	14.6	-0.76
Ira Newble	50	50	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.51	8	-9	17	15.7	17.2	-1.48	15.1	13.7	1.35
Kedrick Brown	30	31	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.26	-5	4	-9	17.6	15.8	1.82	13.4	15.0	-1.58
LeBron James	88	90	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.48	2	-3	5	16.3	17.6	-1.30	14.6	11.5	3.08
Carlos Boozer	78	78	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	-0.56	-1	0	-1	16.4	16.3	0.12	14.6	13.9	0.69
Tony Battie	20	19	-0.74	0.24	-0.98	-0.62	-4	3	-7	15.3	16.6	-1.29	13.4	14.7	-1.35

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.29,0.26,0.33,0.34,0.3,0.25,0.32,0.34,0.39,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.48,0.41,0.4,0.52,0.58,0.74,0.62,0.72,0.77,0.59,0.59,0.78,0.69,0.55,0.43,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 96, BOS 94	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.44,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.35,0.35,0.36,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.43,0.62,0.8,0.77,0.53,0.71,0.72,0.61,0.54,0.45,0.42,0	91.1%
CLE 75, DAL 72	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.3,0.33,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.62,0.59,0.77,0.7,0.59,0.78,0.86,0.79,0.35,0.42,0	90.8%
SAC 110, HOU 106	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.47,0.41,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.33,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.42,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.75,0.74,0.82,0.79,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.65,0.83,0.76,0.63,0.55,0.57,0	90.4%