NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	101		Excitement	6.6 [485]		MVP	Stephon Marbury (NYK): +17.8%
New York Knicks	108		Comeback	4.7 [474]		LVP	Vin Baker (NYK): -13.3%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donyell Marshall	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.02	-0.01	7	64%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Rose	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	18	52%	0.01	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.03
Chris Bosh	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	6	55%	-0.04	1	-0.01	8	50%	-0.03
Corie Blount	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.08	0.03	-0.06	0.05	14	53%	-0.08	0	0.00	6	83%	0.00
Rod Strickland	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	-0.02	7	14%	-0.09	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.13	0.03	-0.13	0.03	28	58%	0.00	4	-0.13	13	69%	-0.04

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephon Marbury	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.16,0.18,0.17,0.16,0.18	0.18	0.10	0.07	-0.00	22	69%	0.27	4	-0.09	11	100%	0.07
Michael Sweetney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.06	0.00	4	73%	0.10	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.04	0.00	9	60%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
DerMarr Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.01	0.01	14	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Allan Houston	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Moochie Norris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.02	4	65%	-0.02	0	0.00	9	100%	0.02
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.01	12	58%	0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Othella Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vin Baker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.11	-0.02	0.00	5	43%	-0.02	4	-0.12	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	19.7	0.7	30.5	17.4	24.8	2.6	43.4	139.1
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NYK +41.0%

NYK +16.8%

NYK +9.1%

TOR -15.7%

TOR -1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	NYK	NBA	TOR	NYK	NBA
this game	16.7	14.1	15.7	108.6	114.9	100.5
season	16.8	15.5		94.8	98.6
opponent	15.8	15.7		100.8	98.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	16.5	18.8	17.0	15.1	16.7
NYK	14.1	16.4	15.0	11.5	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rod Strickland	27	28	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.07	-8	1	-9	19.0	15.8	3.23	16.5	13.1	3.36
Corie Blount	28	27	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.11	-5	-2	-3	17.5	16.4	1.08	15.3	13.6	1.67
Donyell Marshall	86	87	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.32	-1	-6	5	16.4	20.7	-4.33	14.1	14.4	-0.35
Chris Bosh	72	74	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.16	-8	1	-9	16.8	16.4	0.42	13.7	15.6	-1.90
Jalen Rose	84	85	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.37	-1	-6	5	15.7	25.7	-9.92	14.1	14.3	-0.25
Vince Carter	85	85	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.29	-6	-1	-5	16.9	14.2	2.69	13.7	18.1	-4.43
Morris Peterson	83	84	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.29	-6	-1	-5	16.7	16.8	-0.10	13.8	16.9	-3.13

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Sweetney	39	40	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.36	12	-5	17	13.9	14.3	-0.40	16.8	16.6	0.20
DerMarr Johnson	78	76	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.28	10	-3	13	14.1	14.0	0.13	17.0	15.6	1.37
Shandon Anderson	63	62	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.37	5	2	3	13.7	15.0	-1.29	16.0	18.1	-2.03
Stephon Marbury	90	88	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.32	3	4	-1	14.1	14.5	-0.41	16.7	17.0	-0.31
Kurt Thomas	76	76	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.13	9	-2	11	13.3	17.4	-4.06	17.0	15.6	1.37
Vin Baker	48	47	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.12	7	0	7	15.3	12.8	2.46	16.9	16.5	0.33
Moochie Norris	19	18	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.15	5	2	3	12.2	14.6	-2.44	16.8	16.7	0.08
Allan Houston	16	17	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.01	-3	10	-13	14.0	14.1	-0.13	15.6	17.0	-1.37
Nazr Mohammed	29	30	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	-0.02	-5	12	-17	15.6	13.4	2.14	17.5	16.3	1.12
Othella Harrington	12	11	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	0.05	-8	15	-23	16.8	13.7	3.13	15.6	16.9	-1.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.4,0.43,0.43,0.37,0.31,0.32,0.43,0.53,0.49,0.38,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.29,0.29,0.34,0.37,0.29,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.43,0.58,0.68,0.8,0.65,0.78,0.93,0.93,0.93,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 98, MIN 109	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.49,0.43,0.44,0.4,0.34,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.31,0.36,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.3,0.24,0.23,0.26,0.27,0.21,0.26,0.25,0.3,0.48,0.33,0.47,0.63,0.79,0.85,0.83,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.99,1	92.8%
BOS 95, LAL 104	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.46,0.39,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.4,0.36,0.39,0.27,0.21,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.33,0.32,0.42,0.48,0.53,0.67,0.68,0.79,0.89,0.78,0.96,0.97,1,1,1	92.7%
MIA 66, BOS 78	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.39,0.32,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.34,0.41,0.42,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.28,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.21,0.32,0.34,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.62,0.72,0.69,0.76,0.82,0.89,0.95,1,1,1	92.7%