NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	112		Excitement	5.9 [612]		MVP	Keith Van Horn (MIL): +16.2%
Sacramento Kings	101		Comeback	1.1 [587]		LVP	Chris Webber (SAC): -17.9%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keith Van Horn	0.16	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.02	0.11	-0.03	14	67%	0.25	4	-0.09	5	100%	0.04
Desmond Mason	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1	-0.00	0.06	-0.04	11	59%	0.12	2	-0.02	5	40%	-0.03
Michael Redd	0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.05	0.02	15	65%	0.14	1	-0.04	10	80%	-0.01
Joe Smith	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	0.02	0.04	11	71%	0.08	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.00
Brevin Knight	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.03	-0.00	5	58%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Dan Gadzuric	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	6	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Erick Strickland	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damon Jones	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	12	46%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	4	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Skinner	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	5	40%	-0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Peeler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.04	0.00	5	90%	0.13	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.11	-0.00	0.04	14	75%	0.15	2	-0.07	8	75%	-0.01
Doug Christie	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.05	0.06	-0.03	11	41%	0.07	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.06	0.01	0.06	16	64%	0.08	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Jabari Smith	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	7	61%	0.05	2	-0.05	9	67%	-0.01
Rodney Buford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darius Songaila	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vlade Divac	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	3	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chris Webber	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.18,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.14	-0.06	-0.02	23	35%	-0.13	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.4	2.3	27.2	15.6	21.3	3.4	37.5	128.8
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +25.1%

SAC -1.4%

MIL +14.0%

MIL +7.5%

MIL +4.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	SAC	NBA	MIL	SAC	NBA
this game	15.9	14.1	15.7	116.7	105.2	100.5
season	15.3	14.7		103.6	106.9
opponent	15.6	15.5		102.0	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	14.7	14.6	17.7	16.8	15.9
SAC	15.3	13.1	15.0	13.2	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keith Van Horn	82	84	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.18	11	0	11	15.8	16.4	-0.64	14.2	13.6	0.61
Michael Redd	75	74	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.15	7	4	3	16.2	14.8	1.38	14.1	14.0	0.15
Brevin Knight	38	37	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.12	6	5	1	16.1	15.8	0.32	14.4	14.0	0.39
Brian Skinner	47	47	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.04	8	3	5	15.1	16.6	-1.53	15.7	12.6	3.19
Desmond Mason	55	55	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.14	4	7	-3	15.7	16.1	-0.37	12.9	15.8	-2.87
Dan Gadzuric	35	35	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.13	4	7	-3	17.4	15.0	2.34	13.9	14.2	-0.27
Joe Smith	66	64	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.06	5	6	-1	16.0	15.7	0.27	14.0	14.4	-0.48
Damon Jones	58	59	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.03	6	5	1	15.8	16.1	-0.32	14.0	14.4	-0.39
Erick Strickland	5	6	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.02	5	6	-1	16.6	15.8	0.75	13.3	14.2	-0.83
Toni Kukoc	19	19	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.02	-1	12	-13	14.3	16.3	-2.02	14.3	14.1	0.19

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jabari Smith	2	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-11	11	6.5	14.3	-7.78	23.5	15.7	7.78
Rodney Buford	13	14	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.01	-2	-9	7	13.5	14.2	-0.67	15.5	16.0	-0.45
Anthony Peeler	45	45	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.13	0	-11	11	13.2	14.9	-1.64	16.0	15.8	0.26
Darius Songaila	13	13	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.04	-7	-4	-3	14.1	14.1	-0.04	15.8	15.9	-0.05
Brad Miller	60	61	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.17	-1	-10	9	13.2	15.6	-2.35	15.7	16.1	-0.41
Chris Webber	75	75	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.12	-5	-6	1	13.9	14.9	-1.01	15.6	16.8	-1.18
Vlade Divac	34	33	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.01	-10	-1	-9	16.1	13.0	3.10	15.7	16.0	-0.29
Peja Stojakovic	83	82	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.19	-9	-2	-7	14.2	13.5	0.67	16.0	15.5	0.45
Mike Bibby	83	82	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.19	-9	-2	-7	14.2	13.5	0.67	16.0	15.5	0.45
Doug Christie	72	73	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.13	-12	1	-13	14.8	12.1	2.71	16.0	15.5	0.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.41,0.37,0.39,0.34,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.3,0.26,0.24,0.31,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.27,0.23,0.32,0.22,0.21,0.22,0.36,0.3,0.43,0.38,0.28,0.32,0.21,0.06,0.07,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 92, WAS 78	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.33,0.28,0.27,0.34,0.26,0.31,0.39,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.36,0.27,0.14,0.13,0.14,0.19,0.27,0.29,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.19,0.17,0.12,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.06,0,0	93.5%
NOH 98, PHI 91	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.41,0.38,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.28,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.51,0.46,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.5,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.39,0.26,0.32,0.24,0.3,0.33,0.25,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.43,0.23,0.14,0.16,0.05,0.1,0.01,0.06,0.02,0	93.3%
BOS 86, DET 78	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.35,0.31,0.32,0.28,0.35,0.28,0.36,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.41,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.45,0.37,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.32,0.32,0.21,0.24,0.23,0.26,0.26,0.22,0.29,0.24,0.27,0.26,0.24,0.12,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0	93.2%