NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	99		Excitement	5.2 [768]		MVP	Tracy McGrady (ORL): +22.3%
Orlando Magic	108		Comeback	1.0 [1135]		LVP	Christian Laettner (WAS): -12.3%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Etan Thomas	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.00	0.02	13	56%	-0.00	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.01
Mitchell Butler	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	6	57%	0.01	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Jared Jeffries	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.04	-0.00	0.05	8	59%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Lonny Baxter	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Gilbert Arenas	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.07,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	0.02	33	53%	0.04	4	-0.07	10	80%	0.01
Juan Dixon	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	4	0%	-0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.00	-0.00	5	31%	-0.08	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.03
Christian Laettner	-0.12	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.21	-0.01	-0.09	16	34%	-0.09	5	-0.04	6	83%	0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.04,0.01,0.08,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.14,0.17,0.25,0.24,0.29,0.31,0.29,0.33,0.31,0.35,0.36,0.31,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.05	0.08	-0.09	37	62%	0.32	6	-0.10	26	65%	-0.04
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	6	58%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steven Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	1	75%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Britton Johnsen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Rooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.01	2	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	0.02	2	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tyronn Lue	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	14	33%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.15	0.00	-0.06	19	32%	-0.06	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.01
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	10	36%	-0.04	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	2.4	31.4	15.7	29.2	2.4	38.3	142.4
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +44.7%

WAS -3.3%

ORL +9.0%

WAS -1.9%

ORL +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	ORL	NBA	WAS	ORL	NBA
this game	13.5	15.4	15.7	100.0	108.0	100.5
season	15.2	15.7		96.4	100.9
opponent	15.4	15.3		108.2	102.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	14.6	14.9	14.0	11.0	13.5
ORL	16.0	14.5	16.6	14.7	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mitchell Butler	51	53	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.20	6	-15	21	13.7	13.3	0.35	16.4	14.3	2.04
Brendan Haywood	48	48	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.07	-2	-7	5	14.6	12.5	2.19	15.2	15.6	-0.37
Lonny Baxter	24	24	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.01	-5	-4	-1	13.7	13.5	0.25	16.6	15.1	1.53
Steve Blake	43	43	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.18	-2	-7	5	12.2	14.5	-2.35	15.4	15.4	0.04
Jared Jeffries	78	78	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.20	-4	-5	1	13.5	13.6	-0.07	15.2	16.3	-1.09
Juan Dixon	25	25	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	0.11	-15	6	-21	15.4	12.9	2.58	14.4	15.7	-1.31
Etan Thomas	51	52	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.17	-7	-2	-5	12.5	14.6	-2.19	15.6	15.2	0.37
Christian Laettner	83	84	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.22	-6	-3	-3	13.4	14.2	-0.88	15.1	17.2	-2.10
Gilbert Arenas	92	93	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.25	-10	1	-11	13.6	12.3	1.32	15.3	16.6	-1.24

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tracy McGrady	96	94	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.17	10	-1	11	15.4	17.0	-1.65	13.4	16.2	-2.83
Keith Bogans	31	30	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.02	15	-6	21	14.9	15.7	-0.80	16.1	12.4	3.66
Tyronn Lue	88	87	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.15	7	2	5	15.3	16.4	-1.13	13.0	17.6	-4.63
Sean Rooks	33	31	0.31	0.19	0.11	-0.07	13	-4	17	15.4	15.4	0.01	13.9	13.4	0.52
Andrew DeClercq	53	54	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.20	3	6	-3	15.3	15.6	-0.29	13.1	14.0	-0.89
Juwan Howard	91	90	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.31	-1	10	-11	15.6	13.7	1.93	13.3	15.6	-2.24
DeShawn Stevenson	81	81	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.30	-4	13	-17	15.8	13.9	1.88	13.2	15.1	-1.88
Steven Hunter	23	23	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.03	3	6	-3	15.0	15.5	-0.49	14.8	13.1	1.65
Britton Johnsen	4	5	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.06	-1	10	-11	17.0	15.4	1.65	16.2	13.4	2.83

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.64,0.73,0.73,0.76,0.8,0.8,0.82,0.81,0.72,0.73,0.75,0.74,0.82,0.78,0.85,0.84,0.79,0.82,0.84,0.89,0.92,0.82,0.85,0.91,0.94,0.93,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 78, WAS 95	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.54,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.67,0.75,0.82,0.8,0.75,0.76,0.72,0.77,0.74,0.67,0.71,0.77,0.8,0.83,0.81,0.77,0.82,0.81,0.89,0.89,0.79,0.9,0.93,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.5%
CHI 79, NOP 88	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.72,0.73,0.78,0.77,0.76,0.8,0.77,0.8,0.8,0.77,0.84,0.82,0.87,0.9,0.84,0.88,0.86,0.85,0.91,0.91,0.95,0.93,0.9,0.96,0.97,0.92,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%
NYK 88, TOR 113	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.59,0.55,0.61,0.6,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.67,0.72,0.78,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.7,0.7,0.8,0.79,0.8,0.78,0.83,0.71,0.77,0.88,0.89,0.88,0.89,0.82,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%