NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	80		Excitement	6.9 [424]		MVP	Jiri Welsch (BOS): +34.8%
Minnesota Timberwolves	77		Comeback	11.5 [49]		LVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): -30.6%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jiri Welsch	0.35	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.35	0.11	0.24	0.00	12	69%	0.35	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Walter McCarty	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.02	0.00	8	56%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Atkins	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.08	0.03	13	40%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Chris Mihm	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	8	58%	0.04	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Ricky Davis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	6	56%	0.01	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Marcus Banks	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	7	43%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Hunter	-0.06	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.10	0.00	-0.03	7	14%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mark Blount	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	5	0%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	-0.31	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.15,-0.19,-0.24,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.27,-0.33,-0.31	-0.21	-0.13	-0.03	21	28%	-0.20	2	-0.10	5	100%	0.04

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mark Madsen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	5	60%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Trenton Hassell	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.03	-0.00	10	40%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.05	-0.03	19	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Sam Cassell	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	14	46%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Olowokandi	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	14	36%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Wally Szczerbiak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	0.00	8	33%	-0.07	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Gary Trent	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Latrell Sprewell	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.14	-0.11	-0.01	9	20%	-0.15	2	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Troy Hudson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.28,-0.27	-0.27	-0.13	-0.11	0.03	10	33%	-0.18	3	-0.09	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	3.7	32.2	17.6	24.1	3.4	41.1	147.0
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +39.0%

BOS +5.0%

MIN -8.3%

BOS +16.1%

MIN -1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIN	NBA	BOS	MIN	NBA
this game	15.2	15.1	15.7	84.2	81.1	100.5
season	14.4	15.6		99.5	103.2
opponent	16.1	15.9		98.4	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	15.1	15.0	14.8	15.9	15.2
MIN	16.2	14.4	15.2	14.8	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jiri Welsch	55	56	0.80	-0.30	1.11	0.54	9	-6	15	15.2	15.2	-0.02	15.6	14.5	1.13
Chris Mihm	54	55	0.78	-0.28	1.07	0.32	16	-13	29	15.3	15.0	0.33	15.7	14.3	1.43
Paul Pierce	85	87	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.34	4	-1	5	15.4	13.8	1.55	15.0	17.0	-2.05
Mark Blount	65	66	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.47	-1	4	-5	15.7	14.1	1.54	15.3	14.8	0.53
Chucky Atkins	69	70	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.36	1	2	-1	15.8	13.5	2.27	15.1	15.2	-0.15
Marcus Banks	26	25	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.05	2	1	1	13.5	15.8	-2.27	15.2	15.1	0.15
Brandon Hunter	24	24	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.04	0	3	-3	14.7	15.4	-0.64	16.8	14.5	2.28
Ricky Davis	53	50	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	0.04	-8	11	-19	14.6	16.0	-1.41	14.4	16.0	-1.62
Walter McCarty	44	42	-0.34	0.84	-1.17	-0.10	-8	11	-19	15.0	15.4	-0.35	13.8	16.2	-2.45

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sam Cassell	56	58	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.42	12	-15	27	14.0	16.8	-2.79	16.4	13.2	3.23
Wally Szczerbiak	35	36	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.09	-1	-2	1	14.9	15.3	-0.43	14.1	15.8	-1.74
Kevin Garnett	81	82	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.32	5	-8	13	14.7	17.6	-2.87	15.3	14.8	0.49
Michael Olowokandi	65	62	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.25	1	-4	5	15.9	13.5	2.43	16.3	13.1	3.17
Mark Madsen	20	20	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.11	-4	1	-5	14.9	15.2	-0.29	11.0	16.3	-5.31
Latrell Sprewell	62	62	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.30	1	-4	5	15.2	15.0	0.24	15.4	14.7	0.71
Gary Trent	23	24	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.14	-6	3	-9	14.8	15.2	-0.45	15.8	15.0	0.86
Trenton Hassell	88	89	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.26	-9	6	-15	15.3	12.6	2.76	15.7	7.7	8.03
Troy Hudson	45	42	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.17	-14	11	-25	16.2	14.2	2.00	12.8	17.1	-4.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.69,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.64,0.59,0.51,0.58,0.46,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.77,0.8,0.84,0.89,0.89,0.79,0.7,0.78,0.75,0.76,0.72,0.59,0.4,0.47,0.15,0.11,0.15,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 88, PHI 83	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.59,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.65,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.67,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.78,0.83,0.78,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.85,0.86,0.77,0.69,0.47,0.28,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0	92.4%
TOR 93, ORL 86	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.52,0.53,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.72,0.67,0.61,0.5,0.45,0.55,0.61,0.7,0.79,0.79,0.81,0.78,0.74,0.78,0.87,0.81,0.84,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.79,0.54,0.27,0.26,0.07,0.01,0,0	91.6%
LAC 107, PHX 106	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.51,0.46,0.56,0.5,0.43,0.55,0.69,0.76,0.73,0.77,0.75,0.82,0.88,0.86,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.52,0.77,0.74,0.59,0.39,0.31,0.11,0.04,0.08,0	91.3%