NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	77		Excitement	4.8 [847]		MVP	Hedo Turkoglu (SAS): +14.4%
San Antonio Spurs	86		Comeback	1.8 [790]		LVP	Maurice Taylor (HOU): -24.4%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Clar. Weatherspoon	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.03	0.00	4	80%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Eric Piatkowski	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Yao Ming	0.03	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.09	0.00	0.06	16	61%	0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Adrian Griffin	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scott Padgett	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.06	0.00	0.06	2	125%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bostjan Nachbar	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Jackson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00	1	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kelvin Cato	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jim Jackson	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	5	27%	-0.05	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Steve Francis	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.05	-0.05	0.02	12	50%	-0.09	2	-0.03	8	62%	-0.06
Cuttino Mobley	-0.18	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.12	-0.05	0.01	11	44%	-0.02	5	-0.16	3	100%	0.02
Maurice Taylor	-0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.21,-0.23,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.22	-0.06	-0.03	14	25%	-0.15	4	-0.10	4	50%	-0.03

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.14	0.03	0.02	9	89%	0.16	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.13	0.04	0.04	12	78%	0.16	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Tim Duncan	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.01	20	54%	0.06	1	-0.02	10	70%	-0.02
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Devin Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ron Mercer	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Ward	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.08	-0.00	-0.04	5	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.09	0.01	-0.04	5	20%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	7	14%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.16,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.15	-0.04	-0.04	12	44%	0.01	7	-0.16	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	1.8	30.2	17.5	0.0	2.5	29.5	105.8
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +39.0%

SAS +2.0%

HOU -6.5%

SAS +16.9%

HOU -1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	SAS	NBA	HOU	SAS	NBA
this game	18.0	16.5	15.7	93.9	101.2	100.5
season	16.5	15.9		98.8	100.1
opponent	15.8	15.6		92.7	97.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	19.4	20.2	15.4	17.5	18.0
SAS	14.2	18.8	13.7	20.2	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kelvin Cato	24	24	0.09	-0.59	0.68	0.09	0	-9	9	17.4	18.3	-0.90	15.5	16.9	-1.34
Adrian Griffin	3	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.15	5	-14	19	10.3	18.3	-7.97	20.7	16.3	4.45
Scott Padgett	3	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.15	5	-14	19	10.3	18.3	-7.97	20.7	16.3	4.45
Bostjan Nachbar	3	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.15	5	-14	19	10.3	18.3	-7.97	19.0	16.4	2.59
Eric Piatkowski	18	20	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.08	0	-9	9	20.2	17.4	2.83	17.9	16.1	1.82
Mark Jackson	28	32	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.28	5	-14	19	17.7	18.2	-0.51	17.5	15.9	1.54
Maurice Taylor	47	49	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.16	-4	-5	1	19.5	16.1	3.41	15.6	17.7	-2.16
Cuttino Mobley	74	75	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.06	-8	-1	-7	18.4	14.1	4.31	16.2	19.1	-2.94
Clar. Weatherspoon	35	36	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.19	-7	-2	-5	16.8	18.9	-2.07	17.4	15.8	1.58
Yao Ming	55	57	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.06	-12	3	-15	18.2	17.6	0.63	16.8	15.9	0.97
Steve Francis	68	68	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	0.01	-16	7	-23	18.3	16.4	1.91	16.2	17.5	-1.28
Jim Jackson	52	53	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.01	-18	9	-27	17.3	19.3	-1.98	15.8	17.7	-2.00

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robert Horry	24	25	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.04	20	-11	31	13.7	17.6	-3.84	18.9	17.6	1.25
Tim Duncan	74	70	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.09	11	-2	13	16.6	15.5	1.10	18.3	16.3	1.97
Manu Ginobili	47	48	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.06	12	-3	15	16.0	17.1	-1.08	18.7	17.0	1.68
Bruce Bowen	61	58	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.00	13	-4	17	17.3	14.5	2.74	18.1	17.8	0.25
Charlie Ward	26	23	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.23	3	6	-3	17.2	16.2	1.04	19.0	17.6	1.31
Hedo Turkoglu	55	53	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.12	3	6	-3	15.6	18.1	-2.52	17.9	18.2	-0.35
Tony Parker	59	59	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.01	6	3	3	16.2	17.2	-1.04	17.6	19.0	-1.31
Rasho Nesterovic	51	50	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.20	-4	13	-17	17.4	15.1	2.31	17.7	18.6	-0.90
Devin Brown	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.15	-5	14	-19	19.0	16.4	2.59	14.0	18.1	-4.11
Ron Mercer	4	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.15	-5	14	-19	20.7	16.3	4.45	10.3	18.3	-7.97
Malik Rose	21	19	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	0.14	-9	18	-27	16.9	16.4	0.53	16.7	18.4	-1.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.72,0.75,0.7,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.5,0.54,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.56,0.63,0.64,0.74,0.81,0.88,0.93,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 86, SAC 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.67,0.7,0.74,0.71,0.65,0.68,0.72,0.79,0.77,0.67,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.48,0.62,0.59,0.6,0.68,0.78,0.9,0.85,0.86,0.88,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	93.9%
GSW 86, BOS 94	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.63,0.65,0.68,0.71,0.72,0.7,0.66,0.68,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.59,0.6,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.67,0.79,0.78,0.78,0.85,0.91,0.91,0.92,0.94,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.9%
MIL 87, PHI 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.65,0.63,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.68,0.62,0.65,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.59,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.43,0.42,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.68,0.74,0.74,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.86,0.86,0.9,0.98,0.94,0.9,0.99,1	93.5%