NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	98		Excitement	6.0 [603]		MVP	Richard Hamilton (DET): +14.4%
Detroit Pistons	102		Comeback	3.5 [662]		LVP	Desmond Mason (MIL): -20.7%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dan Gadzuric	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Strickland	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02	0.12	-0.00	0.10	8	89%	0.03	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Daniel Santiago	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	2	17%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Marcus Haislip	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	4	40%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Brian Skinner	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	10	54%	0.00	4	-0.11	4	75%	-0.01
T.J. Ford	-0.12	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.06	-0.05	0.01	8	53%	0.02	4	-0.14	1	100%	0.00
Damon Jones	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.13	-0.00	-0.02	3	22%	-0.05	4	-0.07	3	67%	-0.00
Michael Redd	-0.14	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14	-0.03	-0.04	0.06	18	55%	-0.04	4	-0.10	6	83%	0.01
Joe Smith	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.15	-0.06	-0.01	11	15%	-0.20	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Desmond Mason	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.17,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.21	-0.19	-0.05	-0.03	19	38%	-0.17	2	-0.03	15	67%	-0.02

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14	0.14	0.11	0.04	0.00	12	74%	0.15	1	-0.01	7	100%	0.03
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	14	56%	0.08	2	-0.06	8	75%	0.03
Bob Sura	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.01,0,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	6	56%	0.04	1	-0.02	4	0%	-0.03
Mehmet Okur	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	10	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Darvin Ham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.04	1	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.00
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	13	54%	0.03	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Elden Campbell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	4	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	-0.03	-0.03	10	39%	-0.06	1	-0.04	8	37%	-0.06
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.11	-0.02	-0.02	10	37%	-0.03	3	-0.06	4	75%	0.01
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.12	-0.04	0.00	7	12%	-0.15	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.5	1.8	34.3	16.8	24.1	2.5	44.8	154.8
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +56.5%

MIL -15.5%

MIL -14.2%

DET +25.7%

MIL -2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	DET	NBA	MIL	DET	NBA
this game	13.6	14.7	15.7	97.0	99.0	100.5
season	15.3	16.2		103.6	99.2
opponent	16.0	15.5		92.6	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	12.2	12.9	16.8	12.5	13.6
DET	14.9	16.5	12.6	14.6	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damon Jones	33	33	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.00	2	-6	8	11.3	14.7	-3.39	14.2	14.9	-0.76
Daniel Santiago	9	10	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.24	8	-12	20	11.8	13.7	-1.95	15.6	14.6	1.03
Erick Strickland	37	38	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.34	11	-15	26	11.5	14.7	-3.22	15.7	14.1	1.57
Brian Skinner	63	64	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.13	-3	-1	-2	13.7	13.3	0.38	14.5	14.9	-0.32
Toni Kukoc	24	24	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.19	-1	-3	2	12.0	14.0	-2.04	15.2	14.5	0.70
Dan Gadzuric	25	25	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.00	-9	5	-14	15.4	12.9	2.51	16.6	14.0	2.60
Joe Smith	77	79	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.19	-3	-1	-2	14.0	12.0	2.04	14.5	15.2	-0.70
Marcus Haislip	18	17	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.12	-14	10	-24	13.7	13.5	0.14	14.2	14.8	-0.52
Michael Redd	64	67	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.39	3	-7	10	13.9	13.0	0.92	13.7	16.5	-2.77
Desmond Mason	87	88	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.17	-8	4	-12	13.7	12.7	0.98	14.5	15.7	-1.24
T.J. Ford	68	70	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.38	-6	2	-8	14.7	11.3	3.39	14.9	14.2	0.76

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chauncey Billups	82	79	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.45	3	1	2	14.9	13.7	1.26	14.2	11.4	2.74
Ben Wallace	94	92	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.42	4	0	4	14.5	16.7	-2.19	13.7	11.8	1.95
Richard Hamilton	53	52	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.36	4	0	4	13.2	16.2	-3.05	14.1	12.9	1.20
Corliss Williamson	48	47	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.09	11	-7	18	16.3	13.2	3.12	13.9	13.3	0.63
Darvin Ham	36	37	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.13	14	-10	24	15.9	14.0	1.96	12.3	14.3	-1.94
Chucky Atkins	43	42	0.22	0.28	-0.05	-0.07	10	-6	16	15.7	13.9	1.80	12.0	14.7	-2.70
Tayshaun Prince	67	64	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.51	-10	14	-24	14.0	15.9	-1.96	14.3	12.3	1.94
Mehmet Okur	51	51	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.18	1	3	-2	14.5	14.8	-0.24	14.9	12.2	2.72
Elden Campbell	9	8	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	0.07	-8	12	-20	14.1	14.7	-0.61	6.0	14.2	-8.20
Bob Sura	32	33	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	0.03	-9	13	-22	13.5	15.2	-1.74	12.0	14.3	-2.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.34,0.29,0.25,0.26,0.34,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.59,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.64,0.54,0.63,0.69,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.68,0.65,0.75,0.8,0.83,0.85,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 105, GSW 122	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.41,0.42,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.52,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.62,0.58,0.55,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.72,0.76,0.77,0.82,0.91,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%
CHI 87, ORL 108	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.5,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.38,0.29,0.32,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.42,0.47,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.55,0.71,0.77,0.78,0.86,0.78,0.79,0.92,0.89,0.94,0.96,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.4%
HOU 77, MEM 86	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.58,0.65,0.79,0.7,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.65,0.76,0.8,0.87,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.93,0.97,0.99,0.97,0.99,0.97,1,0.99,1,1	94.0%