NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	88		Excitement	7.5 [310]		MVP	Andrei Kirilenko (UTA): +30.7%
Utah Jazz	91		Comeback	8.0 [207]		LVP	Greg Ostertag (UTA): -27.6%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0.30	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.21,0.21,0.31,0.31,0.34,0.34,0.28,0.36,0.36,0.3	0.17	0.12	-0.00	18	72%	0.33	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Antawn Jamison	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	11	59%	0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05	-0.01	0.04	-0.01	5	40%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Fortson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	14	53%	0.07	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.06
Josh Howard	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.00	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Travis Best	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.16,-0.16	-0.05	-0.11	0.00	4	70%	-0.06	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Antoine Walker	-0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.1,-0.1,-0.21,-0.24	-0.09	-0.14	0.01	10	30%	-0.13	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrei Kirilenko	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.03,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.31,0.31	0.31	0.08	0.24	0.02	13	74%	0.38	3	-0.07	5	80%	0.02
Raja Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13	0.13	0.05	0.08	0.00	11	64%	0.15	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.04
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.1	0.10	-0.02	0.12	0.00	6	57%	0.16	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.03
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.00	0.07	-0.02	11	55%	0.13	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jarron Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.03	-0.01	3	75%	0.09	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.03
Raul Lopez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Sasha Pavlovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	37%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Ruffin	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.11	-0.03	-0.01	7	31%	-0.05	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Greg Ostertag	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.19,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28	-0.28	-0.10	-0.18	-0.00	11	41%	-0.21	2	-0.07	7	57%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.2	2.7	26.5	15.6	25.6	1.8	32.0	124.4
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +25.9%

UTA +7.0%

UTA +32.1%

DAL -19.8%

UTA +4.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	UTA	NBA	DAL	UTA	NBA
this game	16.2	18.1	15.7	104.8	108.3	100.5
season	14.6	17.2		109.2	99.4
opponent	15.2	15.6		100.8	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	17.0	15.0	15.1	17.7	16.2
UTA	19.9	18.6	18.4	15.8	18.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Howard	32	32	0.21	-0.71	0.91	0.12	3	-6	9	15.9	16.3	-0.45	19.1	17.6	1.50
Travis Best	14	14	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.03	4	-7	11	13.9	16.6	-2.76	18.4	18.1	0.27
Danny Fortson	13	12	0.06	-0.56	0.63	0.09	-1	-2	1	18.8	15.7	3.18	19.9	17.8	2.08
Antawn Jamison	49	49	0.05	-0.55	0.59	0.05	0	-3	3	15.1	17.6	-2.48	18.1	18.2	-0.17
Shawn Bradley	61	61	-0.34	-0.15	-0.19	-0.40	2	-5	7	15.6	17.7	-2.18	17.1	20.9	-3.77
Michael Finley	74	74	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.43	2	-5	7	16.1	16.6	-0.51	18.4	16.4	1.96
Dirk Nowitzki	69	69	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.37	-4	1	-5	16.4	14.9	1.57	18.2	17.9	0.32
Antoine Walker	54	55	-0.81	0.31	-1.11	-0.60	-7	4	-11	16.5	15.5	0.97	18.2	17.9	0.31
Steve Nash	54	54	-0.89	0.39	-1.28	-0.48	-14	11	-25	17.3	14.2	3.09	17.9	18.6	-0.78

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carlos Arroyo	64	63	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.50	5	-2	7	17.7	19.4	-1.67	16.1	16.3	-0.24
DeShawn Stevenson	47	45	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.61	0	3	-3	18.1	18.1	-0.01	16.6	15.6	1.05
Raja Bell	46	47	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.33	8	-5	13	17.1	19.3	-2.21	16.3	16.0	0.28
Andrei Kirilenko	72	72	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.39	5	-2	7	18.0	18.7	-0.72	16.5	14.1	2.42
Greg Ostertag	63	63	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.53	-2	5	-7	17.8	19.0	-1.16	16.1	16.2	-0.05
Sasha Pavlovic	16	17	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.02	2	1	1	17.1	18.4	-1.32	14.1	16.7	-2.63
Jarron Collins	39	39	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	-0.14	1	2	-1	18.9	17.4	1.48	14.9	17.2	-2.25
Raul Lopez	20	21	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	-0.09	-2	5	-7	19.4	17.7	1.67	16.3	16.1	0.24
Michael Ruffin	53	53	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	-0.10	-2	5	-7	19.2	16.3	2.97	16.7	15.2	1.57

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.47,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.8,0.81,0.72,0.73,0.76,0.64,0.55,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.43,0.23,0.21,0.19,0.17,0.45,0.54,0.31,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 72, CHI 78	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.57,0.55,0.62,0.6,0.54,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.64,0.71,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.63,0.6,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.3,0.35,0.47,0.31,0.46,0.44,0.91,1	90.4%
DEN 84, SAC 87	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.61,0.62,0.63,0.7,0.68,0.62,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.63,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.49,0.58,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.69,0.75,0.68,0.71,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.74,0.68,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.53,0.46,0.32,0.73,1	89.8%
CLE 88, DEN 91	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.39,0.49,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.63,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.57,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.43,0.29,0.3,0.36,0.34,0.27,0.19,0.36,0.45,0.84,1	89.5%