NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	72		Excitement	7.6 [307]		MVP	Ron Mercer (CHI): +18.0%
Chicago Bulls	78		Comeback	3.3 [242]		LVP	Brad Miller (CHI): -44.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaPhonso Ellis	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.02	0.06	-0.01	3	67%	0.10	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Stepania	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	8	44%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Carter	-0.05	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	0.02	0.00	10	45%	0.03	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Alonzo Mourning	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	7	72%	0.07	4	-0.11	4	75%	-0.00
Eddie House	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	5	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Marks	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.08	-0.05	0.00	4	0%	-0.09	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Chris Gatling	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.14,-0.21,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.08	-0.06	0.00	8	45%	0.01	3	-0.15	4	75%	0.01
Eddie Jones	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19	-0.07	-0.12	-0.00	15	45%	-0.05	3	-0.14	3	67%	0.00
Rod Strickland	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,-0.19,-0.19	-0.03	-0.16	-0.00	12	52%	0.01	3	-0.20	1	100%	0.01

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ron Mercer	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.03,0.18,0.18	0.18	-0.02	0.20	0.01	13	56%	0.23	2	-0.05	8	87%	0.00
Fred Hoiberg	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	0.00	2	83%	0.08	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.03
Charles Oakley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Anthony	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	10	44%	-0.02	0	0.00	5	20%	-0.09
Kevin Ollie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	20%	-0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Trenton Hassell	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.01	-0.00	10	48%	0.00	2	-0.05	7	71%	-0.01
Eddy Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Fizer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.08	-0.01	8	52%	-0.06	1	-0.04	5	60%	-0.05
Brad Miller	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.2,-0.26,-0.33,-0.45,-0.45,-0.45	-0.45	-0.20	-0.26	-0.01	14	31%	-0.39	2	-0.06	11	73%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.4	30.4	15.4	26.4	1.8	35.2	136.9
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +10.1%

MIA -1.0%

MIA -8.5%

CHI +47.9%

CHI +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHI	NBA	MIA	CHI	NBA
this game	17.6	15.3	15.6	80.9	90.7	102.3
season	16.5	15.6		96.6	96.3
opponent	15.6	15.8		105.5	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	20.4	17.5	16.8	15.8	17.6
CHI	12.4	15.2	18.4	15.5	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alonzo Mourning	33	33	0.08	-0.58	0.65	-0.01	3	-9	12	18.8	16.9	1.96	16.3	14.7	1.64
Anthony Carter	49	46	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.09	-1	-5	4	18.5	16.5	1.97	15.9	14.6	1.24
Sean Marks	37	34	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.00	-3	-3	0	18.7	16.8	1.87	14.9	15.6	-0.68
Eddie House	18	18	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.01	-6	0	-6	17.2	17.7	-0.52	13.2	15.8	-2.62
Chris Gatling	50	47	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.29	-4	-2	-2	16.3	19.2	-2.93	15.2	15.4	-0.12
LaPhonso Ellis	66	67	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.33	-5	-1	-4	18.3	15.7	2.61	15.0	16.2	-1.11
Eddie Jones	83	80	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.36	-4	-2	-2	17.7	16.0	1.70	15.3	14.8	0.49
Vladimir Stepania	54	52	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.38	-4	-2	-2	17.0	18.5	-1.53	15.7	14.6	1.11
Rod Strickland	55	53	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.35	-6	0	-6	16.2	19.8	-3.53	15.0	15.8	-0.76

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Trenton Hassell	74	75	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.42	6	0	6	15.2	15.7	-0.53	17.7	16.9	0.86
Brad Miller	56	61	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.39	6	0	6	15.2	15.4	-0.22	18.0	16.6	1.37
Ron Mercer	71	75	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.36	7	-1	8	14.9	17.2	-2.31	17.6	17.3	0.35
Greg Anthony	55	57	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.35	7	-1	8	13.5	18.5	-4.99	17.9	17.1	0.81
Charles Oakley	57	57	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.38	1	5	-4	15.3	15.3	-0.08	18.1	16.6	1.50
Marcus Fizer	38	40	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.04	6	0	6	15.6	15.0	0.61	17.0	18.1	-1.11
Kevin Ollie	33	33	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	-0.04	1	5	-4	17.5	13.9	3.51	16.8	18.0	-1.17
Eddy Curry	19	19	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.06	-3	9	-12	16.4	15.0	1.38	16.3	17.9	-1.68
Fred Hoiberg	27	28	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	-0.13	-1	7	-8	16.6	14.7	1.84	17.1	17.8	-0.75

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.57,0.55,0.62,0.6,0.54,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.64,0.71,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.63,0.6,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.3,0.35,0.47,0.31,0.46,0.44,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 88, DEN 91	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.39,0.49,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.63,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.57,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.43,0.29,0.3,0.36,0.34,0.27,0.19,0.36,0.45,0.84,1	91.7%
WAS 103, BOS 108	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.46,0.48,0.53,0.36,0.24,0.47,0.38,0.79,0.45,0.84,1	91.7%
UTA 87, WAS 95	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.48,0.56,0.46,0.43,0.57,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.3,0.33,0.45,0.45,0.68,0.98,1	91.3%