NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	93		Excitement	8.5 [164]		MVP	Eddie Jones (MIA): +27.7%
Cleveland Cavaliers	94		Comeback	8.8 [199]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -27.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0.28	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.11	0.13	-0.04	9	80%	0.28	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Malik Allen	0.11	0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.08,0.11	0.01	0.10	0.00	14	50%	0.12	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.01	0.01	4	70%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Wang Zhi-zhi	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	-0.00	6	42%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	8	61%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.03
Caron Butler	-0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.16,-0.14,-0.12,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.14	-0.02	-0.00	10	42%	-0.03	5	-0.13	4	50%	-0.02
Lamar Odom	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.16,-0.16	-0.05	-0.12	-0.01	13	48%	-0.07	2	-0.09	5	60%	-0.02
Dwyane Wade	-0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.1,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.28	-0.02	-0.27	-0.01	12	52%	-0.24	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.02

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dajuan Wagner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.15	0.15	-0.04	0.19	-0.00	11	42%	0.18	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.16	-0.01	0.01	16	83%	0.24	3	-0.10	4	50%	-0.02
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.03	-0.00	3	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ira Newble	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	6	57%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
J.R. Bremer	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeSagana Diop	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Ollie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	2	33%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jeff McInnis	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	7	25%	-0.08	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.15	-0.15	-0.07	-0.10	-0.02	25	45%	-0.02	1	-0.14	10	70%	-0.03
Eric Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.06	-0.16	-0.00	8	53%	0.01	4	-0.24	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	1.8	30.8	14.8	25.5	2.0	34.2	134.5
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +15.6%

CLE +21.6%

CLE +25.8%

MIA -22.7%

CLE +9.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CLE	NBA	MIA	CLE	NBA
this game	17.6	16.7	15.7	112.0	110.6	100.5
season	16.2	15.7		99.3	99.8
opponent	15.5	15.9		102.3	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	18.2	15.5	16.7	20.5	17.6
CLE	13.9	17.3	18.4	17.6	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wang Zhi-zhi	31	31	0.20	-0.70	0.90	-0.07	9	-10	19	17.6	17.6	0.04	17.8	16.1	1.78
Dwyane Wade	42	43	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.40	12	-13	25	17.0	18.2	-1.29	17.7	15.7	1.96
Rafer Alston	66	68	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.02	-5	4	-9	18.6	13.8	4.81	16.7	16.9	-0.22
Udonis Haslem	34	33	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.41	2	-3	5	17.1	17.9	-0.75	16.5	16.8	-0.31
Lamar Odom	61	63	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.43	1	-2	3	17.9	16.7	1.24	16.7	16.8	-0.09
Eddie Jones	63	65	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.38	-5	4	-9	17.3	18.6	-1.40	16.2	18.3	-2.15
Malik Allen	49	50	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.32	-9	8	-17	17.2	18.2	-0.99	15.7	18.1	-2.44
Caron Butler	69	72	-0.66	0.16	-0.81	-0.36	-10	9	-19	17.6	17.8	-0.23	16.9	15.4	1.56

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Ollie	30	30	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.54	7	-6	13	17.3	16.4	0.92	18.9	16.9	2.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	64	64	0.73	-0.23	0.95	0.40	11	-10	21	16.2	18.3	-2.10	17.6	17.6	-0.05
Dajuan Wagner	36	37	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.37	8	-7	15	16.5	16.9	-0.41	18.4	17.0	1.42
LeBron James	78	76	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.47	2	-1	3	16.9	14.6	2.33	17.7	16.3	1.42
Tony Battie	32	29	0.23	0.27	-0.05	-0.01	8	-7	15	17.0	16.5	0.52	19.1	16.8	2.38
Jeff McInnis	55	53	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.32	-4	5	-9	16.9	16.4	0.52	16.7	19.1	-2.42
DeSagana Diop	14	14	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.30	-5	6	-11	19.4	16.2	3.17	17.7	17.6	0.15
J.R. Bremer	1	1	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.03	-2	3	-5	0.0	16.9	-16.90	15.0	17.6	-2.62
Ira Newble	56	53	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.11	-8	9	-17	16.6	16.9	-0.34	16.9	18.9	-2.00
Eric Williams	59	58	-0.52	1.02	-1.54	-0.17	-12	13	-25	16.3	17.7	-1.42	17.0	19.0	-2.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.7,0.64,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.49,0.58,0.55,0.43,0.48,0.44,0.34,0.2,0.21,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.19,0.36,0.35,0.47,0.47,0.79,0.55,0.72,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 101, MIN 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.69,0.63,0.61,0.59,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.45,0.3,0.36,0.38,0.32,0.24,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.08,0.15,0.41,0.46,0.54,0.62,0.85,0.68,0.58,1	90.9%
NYK 84, CHI 86	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.33,0.37,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.42,0.38,0.45,0.41,0.34,0.29,0.21,0.15,0.22,0.25,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.4,0.46,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.58,1	90.3%
MIN 88, POR 91	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.72,0.71,0.66,0.71,0.67,0.59,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.34,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.33,0.34,0.38,0.44,0.26,0.3,0.21,0.29,0.32,0.3,0.47,0.6,0.53,0.71,0.59,0.98,1	90.0%