NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	81		Excitement	6.1 [583]		MVP	Lonny Baxter (TOR): +5.7%
Denver Nuggets	74		Comeback	2.3 [217]		LVP	Nene (DEN): -22.9%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lonny Baxter	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	1	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alvin Williams	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	11	65%	0.09	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.01
Chris Bosh	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.03	-0.00	10	52%	0.06	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Donyell Marshall	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.04	0.02	-0.04	10	50%	0.08	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	6	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Rose	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.07	0.02	-0.03	13	61%	0.12	7	-0.13	2	50%	-0.00
Milt Palacio	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	0	50%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Curry	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.07	-0.05	0.00	4	20%	-0.08	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Vince Carter	-0.20	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.11,-0.13,-0.18,-0.19,-0.2	-0.13	-0.10	-0.04	16	43%	-0.04	5	-0.15	3	100%	0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.05	0.02	7	72%	0.12	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.02
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.01	-0.01	6	33%	-0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.05	-0.00	16	53%	0.00	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.02	16	46%	-0.03	1	-0.04	5	100%	0.04
Rodney White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	4	20%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.07
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	4	0%	-0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	10	30%	-0.09	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.18,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.08	-0.16	-0.01	11	57%	-0.00	6	-0.23	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	1.8	26.3	16.4	24.4	2.3	31.7	129.9
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +43.2%

DEN -3.6%

TOR +12.7%

DEN -4.7%

TOR +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	DEN	NBA	TOR	DEN	NBA
this game	17.7	14.3	15.7	90.0	82.2	100.5
season	16.8	14.9		94.8	101.6
opponent	15.4	15.7		101.1	98.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	17.2	17.9	17.3	18.5	17.7
DEN	12.8	15.7	15.5	13.4	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Donyell Marshall	62	62	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.24	16	-9	25	16.5	20.3	-3.81	15.0	12.6	2.41
Vince Carter	76	76	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.32	6	1	5	17.1	20.9	-3.74	14.3	14.2	0.10
Michael Curry	49	48	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.11	10	-3	13	18.1	17.2	0.97	14.9	13.6	1.32
Milt Palacio	22	24	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.01	13	-6	19	19.1	17.2	1.90	16.0	13.7	2.26
Morris Peterson	31	32	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.04	8	-1	9	20.6	16.2	4.44	15.1	13.9	1.18
Alvin Williams	73	71	0.23	0.28	-0.05	0.23	0	7	-7	17.1	20.4	-3.34	14.1	15.0	-0.89
Jalen Rose	68	67	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.31	-6	13	-19	17.2	19.1	-1.90	13.5	16.6	-3.04
Chris Bosh	53	53	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.08	-3	10	-13	17.8	17.5	0.27	13.6	15.3	-1.69
Lonny Baxter	16	17	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	0.16	-9	16	-25	20.6	17.1	3.48	12.0	14.8	-2.84

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rodney White	18	19	0.06	-0.56	0.63	0.03	1	-8	9	14.7	14.2	0.46	18.7	17.4	1.25
Marcus Camby	38	38	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.01	-2	-5	3	14.7	14.0	0.66	16.5	18.6	-2.12
Chris Andersen	34	34	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.00	-5	-2	-3	15.1	13.8	1.31	20.9	15.7	5.21
Carmelo Anthony	74	74	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.37	5	-12	17	13.6	17.4	-3.82	17.5	18.4	-0.90
Andre Miller	75	76	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.33	3	-10	13	13.5	18.1	-4.52	17.6	18.0	-0.36
Ryan Bowen	17	18	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.02	-12	5	-17	16.2	13.8	2.39	18.7	17.4	1.28
Voshon Lenard	69	69	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.23	-7	0	-7	14.2	14.8	-0.60	16.5	21.7	-5.24
Nene	70	67	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.35	-5	-2	-3	14.5	13.4	1.09	17.2	19.1	-1.92
Earl Boykins	55	55	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.24	-13	6	-19	14.6	13.8	0.82	18.3	16.8	1.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.56,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.63,0.67,0.66,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.58,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.62,0.6,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.35,0.41,0.34,0.26,0.19,0.21,0.34,0.34,0.43,0.42,0.37,0.26,0.29,0.18,0.1,0.15,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 84, CHI 78	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.56,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.45,0.34,0.24,0.16,0.1,0.19,0.3,0.3,0.41,0.37,0.21,0.15,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.04,0,0	93.1%
UTA 111, ATL 101	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.52,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.31,0.33,0.37,0.32,0.22,0.26,0.3,0.29,0.37,0.31,0.31,0.17,0.1,0.03,0.04,0.01,0	92.9%
UTA 94, CHI 83	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.59,0.64,0.67,0.59,0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.42,0.52,0.41,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.25,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.37,0.26,0.35,0.27,0.1,0.07,0.04,0,0	92.9%