NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	74		Excitement	5.0 [816]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +10.5%
San Antonio Spurs	89		Comeback	1.1 [1142]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -34.2%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Desmond Mason	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	0.00	7	57%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	18	58%	0.08	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Daniel Santiago	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	4	60%	0.01	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Dan Gadzuric	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Joe Smith	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.02	-0.01	7	37%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Damon Jones	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.08	0.02	-0.01	6	17%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Thomas	-0.08	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.01	-0.04	0.02	13	50%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Brian Skinner	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	12	25%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.03	-0.02	6	14%	-0.07	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
T.J. Ford	-0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.10	-0.06	-0.00	9	30%	-0.13	2	-0.03	2	100%	-0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.05	0.03	-0.02	16	64%	0.14	2	-0.04	7	57%	-0.04
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	2	125%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.01	-0.01	6	58%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.02	-0.02	7	71%	0.09	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Devin Brown	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jason Hart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.14	0.02	-0.03	14	37%	0.00	4	-0.09	4	75%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.12	-0.01	0.01	12	40%	-0.08	3	-0.05	6	67%	-0.01
Tim Duncan	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.29,-0.31,-0.31,-0.34,-0.34,-0.34,-0.34,-0.34,-0.34,-0.34,-0.34,-0.34,-0.34	-0.34	-0.33	-0.06	-0.05	15	26%	-0.25	4	-0.09	16	37%	-0.14

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	1.8	26.2	16.8	24.6	2.0	29.3	126.1
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +46.5%

MIL -9.5%

SAS +17.6%

MIL -5.7%

SAS +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	SAS	NBA	MIL	SAS	NBA
this game	15.2	15.1	15.7	77.1	94.7	100.5
season	15.3	15.9		103.6	100.1
opponent	15.8	15.5		92.7	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	14.6	15.5	15.8	15.0	15.2
SAS	12.5	12.2	18.5	18.5	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Smith	60	58	0.09	-0.59	0.67	-0.24	11	-26	37	15.4	14.9	0.45	16.0	13.7	2.22
Daniel Santiago	36	35	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.11	4	-19	23	15.1	15.2	-0.14	14.4	15.5	-1.10
T.J. Ford	56	56	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.17	6	-21	27	14.4	16.4	-2.02	16.4	13.2	3.20
Dan Gadzuric	16	17	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.02	-2	-13	11	13.1	15.6	-2.49	17.2	14.6	2.59
Michael Redd	82	81	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.07	-2	-13	11	15.2	15.3	-0.10	15.7	11.3	4.42
Desmond Mason	42	40	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	0.07	-17	2	-19	15.6	14.9	0.66	16.6	14.0	2.58
Brian Skinner	44	42	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	0.07	-17	2	-19	16.0	14.5	1.52	14.8	15.3	-0.51
Tim Thomas	68	67	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.12	-11	-4	-7	15.0	15.7	-0.73	13.5	19.1	-5.66
Damon Jones	40	38	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	0.11	-21	6	-27	16.4	14.4	2.02	13.2	16.4	-3.20
Toni Kukoc	36	36	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	0.18	-26	11	-37	14.9	15.4	-0.45	13.7	16.0	-2.22

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	68	70	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.05	17	-2	19	13.9	18.2	-4.25	15.1	15.3	-0.20
Hedo Turkoglu	52	53	0.53	-0.03	0.56	-0.18	24	-9	33	14.8	15.5	-0.61	15.8	14.4	1.45
Rasho Nesterovic	67	69	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.04	13	2	11	14.7	16.1	-1.45	14.7	16.5	-1.79
Jason Hart	24	26	0.32	0.18	0.13	-0.10	14	1	13	13.3	15.7	-2.45	17.1	14.5	2.63
Robert Horry	35	36	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.03	10	5	5	16.4	14.4	2.04	15.5	15.0	0.44
Malik Rose	13	13	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.09	11	4	7	9.4	16.0	-6.65	16.5	15.0	1.46
Tony Parker	70	70	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.16	1	14	-13	15.7	13.3	2.45	14.5	17.1	-2.63
Tim Duncan	73	74	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.20	-4	19	-23	15.9	12.4	3.52	15.3	14.8	0.49
Devin Brown	1	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	13	-11	47.0	14.8	32.23	5.5	15.4	-9.90
Bruce Bowen	67	67	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.30	-13	28	-41	16.0	12.8	3.23	15.0	15.6	-0.56

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.71,0.73,0.78,0.84,0.89,0.9,0.92,0.87,0.89,0.9,0.89,0.93,0.87,0.81,0.78,0.82,0.85,0.79,0.73,0.81,0.85,0.78,0.7,0.71,0.79,0.85,0.9,0.94,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 102, LAC 111	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.61,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.56,0.57,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.69,0.78,0.86,0.86,0.87,0.87,0.87,0.84,0.88,0.91,0.96,0.91,0.85,0.79,0.79,0.81,0.84,0.7,0.81,0.82,0.7,0.74,0.82,0.89,0.88,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.96,0.96,1,1,1	95.5%
NJN 81, PHX 92	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.64,0.7,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.73,0.77,0.81,0.84,0.88,0.87,0.9,0.93,0.89,0.86,0.86,0.91,0.87,0.85,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.81,0.89,0.83,0.79,0.74,0.78,0.82,0.87,0.88,0.87,0.94,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.7%
BKN 102, CHI 118	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.62,0.7,0.68,0.72,0.79,0.77,0.83,0.87,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.92,0.91,0.93,0.92,0.9,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.82,0.85,0.79,0.76,0.71,0.75,0.7,0.78,0.82,0.8,0.79,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.94,1,1,1,1	94.6%