NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	87		Excitement	7.2 [376]		MVP	Richard Hamilton (DET): +23.0%
Atlanta Hawks	84		Comeback	3.7 [172]		LVP	Jason Terry (ATL): -19.7%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Richard Hamilton	0.23	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.1,0.16,0.18,0.24,0.31,0.22,0.15,0.24,0.23	0.09	0.14	0.00	23	58%	0.32	1	-0.09	2	100%	0.03
Bob Sura	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.00	-0.01	7	81%	0.12	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Tayshaun Prince	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.04	0.01	10	60%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tremaine Fowlkes	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zeljko Rebraca	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02	-0.07	0.03	-0.02	3	30%	0.02	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.06
Chauncey Billups	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.07,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1	0.00	-0.11	-0.01	19	47%	-0.02	1	-0.08	2	50%	-0.00
Mehmet Okur	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.01	0.01	10	27%	-0.10	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Chucky Atkins	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.12	-0.04	-0.02	5	0%	-0.10	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.06	0.00	2	50%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.03
Theo Ratliff	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	6	65%	-0.00	2	-0.04	8	62%	-0.09
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	0.05	16	44%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dion Glover	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	9	48%	-0.04	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,0.01,-0.09,-0.12	-0.12	-0.02	-0.09	0.01	17	56%	-0.00	4	-0.12	2	100%	0.03
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.02,-0.07,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.00	-0.18	0.02	19	50%	-0.08	2	-0.12	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.5	26.4	16.4	21.4	2.5	35.2	126.6
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +30.0%

DET +6.8%

DET +7.9%

DET +4.1%

DET +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	ATL	NBA	DET	ATL	NBA
this game	17.6	16.3	15.7	102.4	98.8	100.5
season	16.2	15.3		99.2	98.2
opponent	15.5	16.0		103.0	92.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	17.6	15.6	21.1	16.2	17.6
ATL	15.1	17.1	14.8	18.0	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zeljko Rebraca	34	34	0.85	-0.35	1.20	0.32	18	-15	33	16.9	18.1	-1.23	18.4	14.9	3.53
Chauncey Billups	67	66	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.59	1	2	-1	17.5	17.8	-0.24	15.9	17.7	-1.79
Richard Hamilton	71	72	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.46	1	2	-1	17.5	17.9	-0.32	16.5	15.2	1.26
Tayshaun Prince	70	67	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.49	-2	5	-7	17.9	16.3	1.60	16.1	17.1	-0.97
Ben Wallace	72	71	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.52	-11	14	-25	18.1	14.8	3.33	16.1	17.3	-1.19
Bob Sura	28	30	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.13	7	-4	11	17.6	17.6	0.08	16.8	16.0	0.83
Tremaine Fowlkes	1	1	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.02	0	3	-3	0.0	17.8	-17.80	0.0	16.5	-16.49
Mehmet Okur	33	32	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.06	-2	5	-7	18.0	17.3	0.67	15.7	16.7	-1.02
Corliss Williamson	28	29	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.11	2	1	1	18.5	17.1	1.41	16.7	16.1	0.60
Chucky Atkins	21	23	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.15	1	2	-1	15.3	18.3	-3.06	15.3	16.7	-1.36

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Boris Diaw	20	18	0.09	-0.59	0.67	0.17	-3	0	-3	16.7	16.2	0.60	16.9	17.8	-0.82
Jacque Vaughn	24	21	0.08	-0.58	0.67	0.14	-2	-1	-1	15.1	16.8	-1.69	14.5	18.6	-4.07
Theo Ratliff	57	57	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.29	5	-8	13	15.5	17.9	-2.44	18.4	15.9	2.53
Nazr Mohammed	40	40	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.04	-8	5	-13	17.3	15.4	1.95	17.3	17.8	-0.45
Jason Terry	77	77	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.40	0	-3	3	16.3	16.2	0.05	17.9	14.9	3.00
Stephen Jackson	65	67	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.59	0	-3	3	16.2	16.7	-0.60	17.8	16.9	0.82
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	71	71	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.53	-4	1	-5	16.6	14.6	1.98	17.5	17.8	-0.24
Dion Glover	71	74	-0.69	0.19	-0.89	-0.61	-3	0	-3	16.4	15.6	0.87	17.7	16.9	0.78

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.4,0.35,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.2,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.14,0.2,0.22,0.27,0.32,0.35,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.48,0.62,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.63,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.32,0.29,0.43,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 102, BOS 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.31,0.26,0.27,0.25,0.3,0.32,0.26,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.35,0.44,0.3,0.4,0.48,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.54,0.54,0.31,0.21,0.17,0.02,0	91.4%
LAC 83, VAN 80	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.36,0.27,0.27,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.25,0.32,0.23,0.3,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.31,0.34,0.56,0.61,0.62,0.7,0.7,0.67,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.72,0.45,0.15,0	91.0%
TOR 94, LAC 85	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.41,0.41,0.43,0.4,0.49,0.4,0.46,0.43,0.44,0.45,0.36,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.21,0.26,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.31,0.25,0.28,0.3,0.24,0.26,0.35,0.28,0.44,0.47,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.47,0.59,0.54,0.47,0.29,0.15,0.01,0	90.4%