NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Jersey Nets	82		Excitement	8.4 [169]		MVP	Richard Jefferson (NJN): +17.2%
Detroit Pistons	79		Comeback	2.9 [233]		LVP	Chauncey Billups (DET): -19.0%

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Richard Jefferson	0.17	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.17,0.17	0.01	0.15	-0.01	21	54%	0.21	1	-0.04	8	62%	-0.06
Kerry Kittles	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.02	-0.00	9	56%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Scalabrine	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lucious Harris	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Robert Pack	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	8	48%	0.02	1	-0.08	7	43%	-0.01
Jason Kidd	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.14,-0.09,-0.11	-0.02	-0.07	0.02	18	56%	0.01	4	-0.11	7	86%	0.13
Jason Collins	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.12	-0.05	-0.01	7	12%	-0.14	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.04
Rodney Rogers	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.16	-0.02	-0.01	10	10%	-0.12	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.01	-0.01	10	64%	0.07	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.02
Bob Sura	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tremaine Fowlkes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Zeljko Rebraca	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mehmet Okur	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.02	-0.01	5	20%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.04	-0.00	6	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	0.00	-0.00	12	40%	-0.06	0	0.00	6	33%	-0.10
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.10	-0.01	19	48%	0.05	1	-0.16	4	100%	0.03
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.03	0.01	13	36%	-0.09	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.17,0.05,-0.19	-0.19	-0.10	-0.09	-0.01	15	44%	0.02	4	-0.21	4	75%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	3.8	31.1	16.8	25.7	3.0	41.2	145.1
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET -2.3%

NJN +23.3%

NJN +16.2%

NJN +11.2%

NJN +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NJN	DET	NBA	NJN	DET	NBA
this game	15.1	17.2	15.7	90.1	89.8	100.5
season	15.3	16.2		98.1	99.2
opponent	16.0	16.2		92.6	95.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NJN	13.4	16.0	17.1	13.8	15.1
DET	19.4	17.6	14.8	16.9	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kenyon Martin	63	63	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.46	8	-5	13	15.0	15.2	-0.28	18.2	14.6	3.57
Richard Jefferson	86	82	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.41	5	-2	7	14.6	22.4	-7.77	17.1	18.0	-0.90
Jason Kidd	81	80	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.38	2	1	1	14.5	19.2	-4.66	17.2	16.6	0.59
Lucious Harris	27	26	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.23	7	-4	11	15.4	14.9	0.50	17.4	17.0	0.37
Kerry Kittles	66	63	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.27	-4	7	-11	14.5	16.6	-2.19	16.9	17.7	-0.78
Jason Collins	72	71	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.17	-3	6	-9	15.5	13.3	2.20	17.1	17.4	-0.24
Brian Scalabrine	18	17	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.05	1	2	-1	17.0	14.6	2.42	17.2	17.1	0.09
Robert Pack	10	8	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.03	1	2	-1	19.2	14.5	4.66	16.6	17.2	-0.59
Rodney Rogers	32	30	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.05	-2	5	-7	15.2	15.0	0.20	15.5	18.0	-2.52

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zeljko Rebraca	15	16	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.03	1	-4	5	16.2	17.4	-1.16	17.3	14.6	2.74
Bob Sura	8	9	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.01	-1	-2	1	16.6	17.2	-0.59	21.3	14.4	6.97
Corliss Williamson	37	38	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.10	1	-4	5	16.2	17.9	-1.67	17.8	13.1	4.79
Tremaine Fowlkes	12	13	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.04	-3	0	-3	17.1	17.2	-0.09	19.0	14.4	4.60
Chauncey Billups	71	72	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.32	2	-5	7	16.8	18.5	-1.63	14.2	18.1	-3.86
Richard Hamilton	75	77	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.33	0	-3	3	16.9	18.4	-1.44	14.3	19.4	-5.08
Tayshaun Prince	73	75	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.32	-1	-2	1	17.3	16.3	1.08	14.3	18.6	-4.33
Chucky Atkins	25	28	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.23	-6	3	-9	18.4	16.7	1.68	16.9	14.2	2.71
Mehmet Okur	46	47	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.30	-4	1	-5	18.3	16.0	2.31	13.5	16.7	-3.19
Ben Wallace	78	80	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.38	-4	1	-5	17.2	17.2	-0.05	14.4	20.0	-5.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.29,0.25,0.3,0.24,0.31,0.35,0.33,0.31,0.26,0.27,0.24,0.26,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.33,0.39,0.36,0.23,0.26,0.31,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.66,0.7,0.57,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.33,0.31,0.28,0.68,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 108, TOR 106	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.45,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.34,0.31,0.4,0.44,0.37,0.3,0.27,0.24,0.2,0.21,0.2,0.3,0.29,0.26,0.22,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.48,0.44,0.56,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.48,0.37,0.41,0.4,0.47,0.62,0.45,0.57,0.27,0	90.6%
WAS 91, LAC 89	0.5,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.45,0.41,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.33,0.2,0.25,0.23,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.18,0.16,0.21,0.16,0.2,0.22,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.27,0.44,0.48,0.46,0.52,0.47,0.48,0.46,0.41,0.29,0.17,0.1,0.29,0.45,0.27,0	90.3%
SEA 91, POR 83	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.25,0.27,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.2,0.21,0.23,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.21,0.26,0.28,0.44,0.56,0.47,0.46,0.62,0.62,0.52,0.53,0.41,0.35,0.39,0.53,0.46,0.65,0.28,0	90.0%