NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	92		Excitement	7.2 [363]		MVP	Rasual Butler (MIA): +25.1%
Washington Wizards	84		Comeback	2.6 [262]		LVP	Larry Hughes (WAS): -16.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasual Butler	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.25	0.08	0.17	-0.00	5	100%	0.27	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0.19	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.27,0.23,0.19,0.19	0.13	0.08	0.02	16	69%	0.20	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	0.05	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	0.01	10	70%	0.13	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	6	56%	0.04	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.02	-0.00	11	61%	0.08	5	-0.11	6	83%	0.02
Udonis Haslem	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Loren Woods	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	1	33%	-0.07	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.04
Caron Butler	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	5	8%	-0.12	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Lamar Odom	-0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.06	-0.10	-0.01	18	46%	-0.04	3	-0.10	1	100%	0.01

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.02	0.01	7	64%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kwame Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	6	71%	0.12	2	-0.10	2	100%	0.02
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	8	52%	0.03	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.01
Brevin Knight	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	2	67%	0.04	2	-0.09	2	100%	0.03
Juan Dixon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarvis Hayes	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.05	-0.02	14	50%	0.02	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Mitchell Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Etan Thomas	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.05	-0.09	-0.01	10	50%	-0.04	2	-0.09	6	83%	0.03
Jared Jeffries	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13	-0.13	-0.05	-0.09	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	2	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Larry Hughes	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.22,-0.24,-0.24,-0.2,-0.11,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.16	-0.16	-0.13	-0.05	-0.02	21	40%	-0.12	2	-0.04	10	80%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	1.8	27.2	15.6	23.2	2.5	36.2	129.9
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +54.1%

WAS -21.5%

WAS -6.4%

MIA +23.5%

MIA +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	WAS	NBA	MIA	WAS	NBA
this game	15.7	16.6	15.7	103.4	94.4	100.5
season	16.2	15.2		99.3	96.4
opponent	15.3	15.9		102.4	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.3	13.2	17.8	17.1	15.7
WAS	14.7	16.8	16.5	18.9	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Grant	65	66	1.02	-0.52	1.54	0.43	20	-12	32	15.3	17.0	-1.78	16.3	17.5	-1.16
Eddie Jones	70	71	0.77	-0.27	1.04	0.27	17	-9	26	15.5	16.7	-1.20	16.6	16.8	-0.20
Lamar Odom	63	64	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.41	5	3	2	16.0	15.1	0.94	16.4	17.2	-0.86
Rasual Butler	40	41	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.25	9	-1	10	15.8	15.7	0.06	16.4	16.8	-0.38
Dwyane Wade	70	71	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.42	0	8	-8	16.1	14.5	1.61	16.1	18.5	-2.36
Caron Butler	49	48	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.01	-1	9	-10	15.7	15.8	-0.06	16.8	16.4	0.38
Udonis Haslem	26	25	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	-0.15	3	5	-2	15.1	16.0	-0.94	17.2	16.4	0.86
Rafer Alston	38	36	-0.20	0.70	-0.89	-0.17	-1	9	-10	15.6	15.9	-0.28	17.6	15.9	1.71
Loren Woods	24	23	-0.52	1.02	-1.54	-0.17	-12	20	-32	17.0	15.3	1.78	17.5	16.3	1.16

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mitchell Butler	11	12	0.38	-0.88	1.27	0.12	9	-17	26	20.9	16.0	4.90	21.0	14.9	6.08
Brendan Haywood	41	42	0.25	-0.75	1.00	0.05	7	-15	22	16.6	16.6	-0.06	16.5	15.1	1.35
Juan Dixon	15	15	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.02	0	-8	8	15.3	16.9	-1.63	13.3	16.2	-2.98
Steve Blake	60	62	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.01	0	-8	8	16.5	16.9	-0.36	15.9	15.4	0.53
Kwame Brown	42	41	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.23	2	-10	12	17.4	15.9	1.53	17.2	14.5	2.74
Jarvis Hayes	74	74	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.11	-11	3	-14	16.1	19.1	-3.03	14.7	20.7	-5.92
Brevin Knight	29	27	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.27	-8	0	-8	16.9	16.5	0.36	15.4	15.9	-0.53
Larry Hughes	74	74	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.29	-8	0	-8	16.9	15.3	1.63	16.2	13.3	2.98
Etan Thomas	48	47	-0.75	0.25	-1.00	-0.31	-15	7	-22	16.6	16.6	0.06	15.1	16.5	-1.35
Jared Jeffries	51	51	-0.78	0.28	-1.05	-0.31	-16	8	-24	15.8	17.8	-2.00	14.8	17.1	-2.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.54,0.52,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.39,0.46,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.39,0.26,0.27,0.34,0.33,0.44,0.5,0.49,0.57,0.71,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.54,0.53,0.28,0.16,0.1,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 95, ATL 92	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.5,0.57,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.39,0.42,0.46,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.37,0.28,0.27,0.3,0.24,0.29,0.35,0.27,0.23,0.33,0.44,0.58,0.66,0.75,0.67,0.58,0.59,0.65,0.47,0.38,0.21,0.17,0.1,0	92.2%
MEM 101, MIN 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.6,0.51,0.45,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.4,0.31,0.25,0.27,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.19,0.3,0.26,0.44,0.42,0.57,0.52,0.57,0.73,0.69,0.65,0.4,0.47,0.36,0.16,0.09,0	91.8%
SEA 87, DEN 83	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.52,0.42,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.27,0.32,0.23,0.27,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.26,0.28,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.52,0.67,0.58,0.64,0.81,0.66,0.62,0.36,0.23,0.08,0	91.7%