NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	87		Excitement	7.7 [254]		MVP	Cory Alexander (DEN): +27.9%
Denver Nuggets	83		Comeback	5.5 [495]		LVP	Bobby Jackson (DEN): -15.8%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Greg Anthony	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.07	-0.03	0.00	4	110%	0.12	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Detlef Schrempf	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.06	0.08	-0.00	11	46%	0.09	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.04
Gary Payton	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,0.09,0	-0.11	0.09	-0.02	18	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
Jerome Kersey	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	3	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jim McIlvaine	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Hersey Hawkins	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	0.01	9	56%	0.05	2	-0.08	7	86%	0.04
Sam Perkins	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04	-0.01	-0.04	-0.01	5	42%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dale Ellis	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	10	30%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Vin Baker	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11	-0.01	-0.09	0.01	13	64%	0.05	4	-0.16	7	71%	-0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cory Alexander	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.08,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.10	0.18	0.00	15	78%	0.47	4	-0.19	2	50%	-0.01
Johnny Newman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	9	61%	0.06	3	-0.08	10	70%	-0.01
Joe Wolf	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dean Garrett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Goldwire	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.12,-0.04	-0.04	0.02	-0.08	-0.02	21	47%	-0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Danny Fortson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	6	53%	-0.01	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14	-0.14	-0.05	-0.08	0.01	11	36%	-0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.12	-0.04	0.00	8	17%	-0.13	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	2.6	24.2	16.5	26.4	2.4	29.2	123.7
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN -17.1%

SEA +26.7%

SEA +22.5%

SEA +17.4%

SEA +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	DEN	NBA	SEA	DEN	NBA
this game	16.4	18.3	15.6	104.8	100.0	102.5
season	15.3	16.2		109.3	96.7
opponent	15.2	16.2		109.5	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	16.5	15.2	17.8	16.3	16.4
DEN	15.5	21.6	17.3	18.9	18.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Payton	70	71	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.55	5	-1	6	15.8	19.8	-4.03	17.9	20.2	-2.24
Hersey Hawkins	61	61	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.48	7	-3	10	15.8	18.1	-2.30	18.0	18.8	-0.77
Detlef Schrempf	65	66	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.48	4	0	4	16.1	17.6	-1.42	18.1	18.9	-0.79
Vin Baker	67	68	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.37	7	-3	10	16.0	18.2	-2.24	18.7	16.4	2.26
Sam Perkins	42	40	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.37	4	0	4	16.9	16.0	0.98	18.3	18.2	0.19
Greg Anthony	31	32	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	-0.12	3	1	2	16.7	16.3	0.47	17.9	18.5	-0.62
Jim McIlvaine	24	24	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.08	-5	9	-14	16.4	16.5	-0.10	17.6	18.5	-0.94
Dale Ellis	29	28	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	-0.22	1	3	-2	19.0	15.1	3.87	19.4	17.7	1.72
Jerome Kersey	26	25	-0.24	0.74	-0.99	-0.07	-6	10	-16	17.6	15.9	1.65	18.7	18.1	0.61

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Wolf	25	26	0.12	-0.62	0.73	0.17	-2	-2	0	19.4	17.8	1.58	18.1	15.7	2.43
Bobby Jackson	28	28	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	0.20	-11	7	-18	21.4	16.7	4.74	16.8	16.3	0.51
Dean Garrett	58	57	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.37	5	-9	14	17.7	19.5	-1.76	16.5	16.2	0.31
Danny Fortson	42	43	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.13	-6	2	-8	19.6	16.9	2.72	16.6	16.3	0.23
Anthony Goldwire	68	67	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.52	4	-8	12	18.1	18.8	-0.67	16.5	16.4	0.09
Cory Alexander	71	72	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.46	-1	-3	2	17.0	25.7	-8.67	16.1	18.7	-2.63
Johnny Newman	53	54	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.31	-7	3	-10	18.0	18.7	-0.75	16.7	16.0	0.74
LaPhonso Ellis	70	68	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.49	-2	-2	0	17.8	20.5	-2.71	15.7	20.0	-4.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.52,0.42,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.27,0.32,0.23,0.27,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.26,0.28,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.52,0.67,0.58,0.64,0.81,0.66,0.62,0.36,0.23,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 92, WAS 84	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.54,0.52,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.39,0.46,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.39,0.26,0.27,0.34,0.33,0.44,0.5,0.49,0.57,0.71,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.54,0.53,0.28,0.16,0.1,0	91.7%
MEM 101, MIN 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.6,0.51,0.45,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.4,0.31,0.25,0.27,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.19,0.3,0.26,0.44,0.42,0.57,0.52,0.57,0.73,0.69,0.65,0.4,0.47,0.36,0.16,0.09,0	91.1%
WAS 96, SEA 92	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.61,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.58,0.56,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.27,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.2,0.24,0.3,0.28,0.29,0.34,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.59,0.47,0.47,0.36,0.14,0.09,0	90.8%