NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	94		Excitement	6.3 [555]		MVP	Tony Delk (DAL): +9.3%
Dallas Mavericks	111		Comeback	5.4 [415]		LVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): -8.1%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lonny Baxter	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.03	0.00	2	100%	0.08	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Morris Peterson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.00	0.02	9	61%	0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Alvin Williams	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.00	10	45%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	19	50%	0.03	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.02
Chris Bosh	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	9	58%	0.03	2	-0.09	6	100%	0.03
Donyell Marshall	-0.07	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	0.00	-0.04	0.03	13	60%	0.01	3	-0.07	4	50%	-0.02
Michael Curry	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	2	67%	0.02	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Jalen Rose	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.10	-0.00	-0.02	13	39%	-0.00	3	-0.08	2	50%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Delk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.04	0.01	6	71%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.10	0.02	0.03	16	66%	0.11	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.03
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.09	0.07	20	61%	0.13	3	-0.05	4	50%	-0.01
Josh Howard	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.03	-0.00	9	70%	0.09	3	-0.10	2	50%	-0.02
Steve Nash	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.07,0.04,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	0.01	20	53%	0.01	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	3	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Fortson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	13	44%	-0.08	1	-0.00	6	83%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.4	2.2	27.0	16.6	23.7	1.8	29.2	121.9
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +5.4%

DAL +7.8%

DAL +9.7%

DAL +32.2%

TOR -5.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	DAL	NBA	TOR	DAL	NBA
this game	15.7	15.0	15.7	100.0	118.1	100.5
season	16.8	14.6		94.8	109.2
opponent	15.6	15.7		105.0	98.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.3	16.6	14.3	16.6	15.7
DAL	15.3	14.7	15.1	14.7	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Curry	31	30	0.23	-0.73	0.97	-0.03	9	-26	35	16.9	15.1	1.79	14.0	15.4	-1.47
Alvin Williams	58	59	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.01	0	-17	17	14.8	17.1	-2.29	15.8	13.6	2.18
Chris Bosh	82	82	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	0.08	-13	-4	-9	15.5	16.7	-1.24	15.3	12.6	2.73
Morris Peterson	50	49	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.10	-7	-10	3	15.7	15.7	-0.02	14.8	15.2	-0.44
Donyell Marshall	78	79	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.11	-15	-2	-13	16.1	13.6	2.54	15.1	14.3	0.76
Lonny Baxter	28	27	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.19	-6	-11	5	14.9	16.0	-1.06	13.6	15.5	-1.98
Jalen Rose	76	76	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	0.08	-24	7	-31	15.6	16.1	-0.48	15.1	14.5	0.58
Vince Carter	67	68	-0.80	0.30	-1.09	0.05	-29	12	-41	16.0	14.9	1.10	14.7	15.6	-0.84

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	66	66	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.05	18	-1	19	13.6	18.1	-4.52	16.4	13.9	2.58
Antawn Jamison	72	73	0.56	-0.06	0.62	-0.03	20	-3	23	14.9	15.2	-0.34	15.8	15.2	0.62
Antoine Walker	83	82	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.02	18	-1	19	15.5	10.8	4.70	15.1	19.7	-4.58
Steve Nash	78	79	0.49	0.01	0.47	-0.10	20	-3	23	14.7	16.3	-1.62	15.9	14.7	1.19
Tony Delk	57	55	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.08	8	9	-1	16.1	13.2	2.89	14.9	16.8	-1.92
Josh Howard	73	73	0.23	0.27	-0.03	-0.12	12	5	7	15.2	14.3	0.82	15.6	16.0	-0.42
Eduardo Najera	22	21	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.03	-2	19	-21	13.0	15.6	-2.57	17.9	15.0	2.88
Marquis Daniels	12	13	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.01	-3	20	-23	15.6	14.9	0.71	15.3	15.7	-0.42
Danny Fortson	7	8	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.07	-6	23	-29	19.0	14.6	4.36	13.2	15.9	-2.65

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.58,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.3,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.33,0.39,0.25,0.27,0.31,0.21,0.2,0.27,0.36,0.45,0.38,0.28,0.34,0.3,0.4,0.54,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.91,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 103, SAC 106	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.62,0.7,0.67,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.38,0.37,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.37,0.26,0.28,0.27,0.19,0.27,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.48,0.46,0.62,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.59,0.76,0.91,0.95,0.93,0.98,0.95,1	92.7%
CHI 118, CHA 125	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.32,0.36,0.33,0.26,0.21,0.16,0.25,0.31,0.21,0.27,0.27,0.3,0.45,0.38,0.31,0.37,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.47,0.59,0.8,0.94,1,1,1,1,1	92.5%
HOU 96, MIL 106	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.31,0.28,0.29,0.25,0.28,0.18,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.3,0.33,0.39,0.41,0.32,0.41,0.48,0.4,0.48,0.62,0.57,0.66,0.76,0.73,0.86,0.94,0.93,0.97,0.95,1,1,1	92.3%