NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	96		Excitement	6.1 [577]		MVP	Scott Williams (MIL): +9.0%
Milwaukee Bucks	106		Comeback	4.4 [478]		LVP	Rafer Alston (MIL): -10.8%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steve Francis	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	16	59%	0.10	2	-0.06	5	80%	0.02
Carlos Rogers	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	0.00	5	67%	0.07	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.02
Bryce Drew	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hakeem Olajuwon	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kelvin Cato	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	4	50%	-0.01	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Cuttino Mobley	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	0.01	-0.02	0.06	13	61%	-0.01	3	-0.07	7	100%	0.04
Walt Williams	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	18	44%	-0.08	0	0.00	7	86%	0.01
Moochie Norris	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	9	52%	0.02	4	-0.11	3	100%	0.02
Shandon Anderson	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	2	70%	0.01	5	-0.11	6	83%	-0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Scott Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.04	0.00	7	75%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Ray Allen	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	0.01	0.03	18	64%	0.11	1	-0.04	8	62%	-0.02
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.03	0.00	3	100%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.00	6	67%	0.08	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.03	0.01	15	59%	0.12	4	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01
Danny Manning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sam Cassell	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	14	59%	0.08	5	-0.12	9	89%	0.00
Darvin Ham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	4	42%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.06
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.02	0.01	6	29%	-0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.6	1.6	27.6	15.7	27.2	2.6	38.4	137.7
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +54.5%

HOU -18.3%

MIL +3.3%

MIL +12.1%

HOU -1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	MIL	NBA	HOU	MIL	NBA
this game	16.7	14.1	15.2	101.1	115.2	101.7
season	15.4	14.9		102.4	105.5
opponent	15.4	14.6		105.1	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	17.5	13.6	18.1	17.7	16.7
MIL	13.6	15.2	13.2	14.3	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bryce Drew	18	18	0.26	-0.76	1.02	-0.09	12	-22	34	13.7	17.4	-3.68	16.3	13.6	2.70
Moochie Norris	39	39	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.13	-1	-9	8	15.6	17.4	-1.76	14.3	14.0	0.35
Hakeem Olajuwon	31	30	-0.17	-0.34	0.17	0.04	-7	-3	-4	18.8	15.6	3.24	13.6	14.4	-0.80
Kelvin Cato	59	56	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.27	-1	-9	8	15.8	18.1	-2.30	14.6	13.4	1.23
Shandon Anderson	53	53	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.02	-10	0	-10	18.4	14.5	3.90	13.0	15.6	-2.57
Steve Francis	72	69	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.01	-11	1	-12	16.2	18.0	-1.78	13.8	14.9	-1.07
Cuttino Mobley	68	66	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.23	-5	-5	0	15.4	19.8	-4.42	14.5	13.2	1.28
Walt Williams	85	81	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.24	-10	0	-10	16.6	17.1	-0.50	14.4	12.3	2.09
Carlos Rogers	50	48	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.09	-17	7	-24	18.8	14.3	4.53	13.6	14.7	-1.10

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ray Allen	80	83	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.15	18	-8	26	13.7	16.8	-3.13	17.3	12.2	5.04
Glenn Robinson	74	75	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.03	19	-9	28	13.4	17.0	-3.59	17.7	12.8	4.82
Scott Williams	42	44	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.18	9	1	8	14.1	14.1	-0.07	19.2	14.5	4.67
Tim Thomas	42	45	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.31	4	6	-2	14.5	13.8	0.76	16.4	16.9	-0.48
Sam Cassell	77	81	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.13	5	5	0	14.2	13.9	0.29	15.8	21.6	-5.85
Darvin Ham	43	42	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.16	4	6	-2	14.6	13.7	0.97	15.4	17.6	-2.19
Ervin Johnson	62	64	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.00	8	2	6	13.7	15.0	-1.27	17.1	15.7	1.45
Danny Manning	11	11	-0.21	0.71	-0.91	0.06	-9	19	-28	16.9	13.7	3.18	11.9	17.3	-5.36
Rafer Alston	29	30	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	0.00	-8	18	-26	15.4	13.5	1.91	13.8	18.0	-4.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.31,0.28,0.29,0.25,0.28,0.18,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.3,0.33,0.39,0.41,0.32,0.41,0.48,0.4,0.48,0.62,0.57,0.66,0.76,0.73,0.86,0.94,0.93,0.97,0.95,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 79, SAC 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.54,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.35,0.3,0.27,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.28,0.3,0.32,0.23,0.33,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.77,0.89,0.85,0.9,0.96,0.97,0.98,1,1	94.6%
DET 109, DEN 118	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.5,0.5,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.32,0.35,0.37,0.26,0.25,0.34,0.26,0.27,0.3,0.3,0.23,0.25,0.27,0.24,0.3,0.23,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.44,0.54,0.52,0.62,0.8,0.85,0.89,0.98,0.96,0.9,0.96,0.96,0.99,1	94.2%
MIN 102, PHX 110	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.37,0.23,0.23,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.42,0.45,0.36,0.29,0.41,0.38,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.87,0.88,0.95,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	93.9%