NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	73		Excitement	3.4 [1117]		MVP	Rasho Nesterovic (SAS): +6.4%
San Antonio Spurs	86		Comeback	1.0 [1218]		LVP	Steve Francis (HOU): -17.2%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eric Piatkowski	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.01	-0.03	9	42%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Alton Ford	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bostjan Nachbar	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scott Padgett	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.05	0.00	0.05	3	82%	-0.00	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.00
Jim Jackson	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	8	61%	0.07	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Moochie Norris	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.09	0.00	-0.07	6	14%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.00
Cuttino Mobley	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	7	50%	-0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kelvin Cato	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Yao Ming	-0.07	0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	9	48%	-0.03	3	-0.05	5	100%	0.02
Maurice Taylor	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.11	-0.02	-0.03	10	33%	-0.04	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.00
Steve Francis	-0.17	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.08	-0.04	0.05	17	42%	-0.14	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.02

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	8	70%	0.06	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	7	60%	0.05	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	11	54%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	0.00	0.02	3	75%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kevin Willis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ron Mercer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	5	40%	-0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Hart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.04	12	59%	0.03	2	-0.05	3	67%	0.01
Tony Parker	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	10	45%	0.01	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Tim Duncan	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.11	0.02	-0.03	10	33%	-0.01	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	2.7	30.8	15.8	30.3	1.7	27.3	133.7
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +38.9%

SAS +0.3%

HOU -2.8%

SAS +10.0%

SAS +3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	SAS	NBA	HOU	SAS	NBA
this game	18.1	16.6	15.7	88.0	103.6	100.5
season	16.5	15.9		98.8	100.1
opponent	15.8	15.6		92.7	97.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	18.0	16.3	21.4	16.9	18.1
SAS	17.1	15.7	14.7	19.1	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alton Ford	4	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-15	17	10.0	18.5	-8.47	19.5	16.5	3.01
Bostjan Nachbar	5	6	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-16	19	14.4	18.3	-3.89	18.7	16.5	2.19
Scott Padgett	14	15	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.29	10	-23	33	15.0	18.7	-3.68	19.5	16.0	3.53
Maurice Taylor	51	52	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.18	3	-16	19	18.4	17.6	0.81	17.6	15.0	2.67
Eric Piatkowski	37	36	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.04	-7	-6	-1	20.0	16.5	3.45	16.4	16.8	-0.34
Moochie Norris	35	35	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.21	1	-14	15	17.3	18.6	-1.39	18.4	15.4	3.05
Steve Francis	57	57	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.12	-7	-6	-1	18.1	17.9	0.20	16.1	17.8	-1.70
Cuttino Mobley	63	64	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.07	-10	-3	-7	17.2	20.7	-3.54	16.6	16.8	-0.20
Yao Ming	58	56	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	0.12	-17	4	-21	18.5	17.0	1.46	15.1	19.9	-4.82
Jim Jackson	52	51	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	0.09	-19	6	-25	18.6	17.2	1.33	16.0	17.7	-1.71
Kelvin Cato	39	39	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	0.18	-24	11	-35	18.9	17.3	1.63	16.2	17.1	-0.91

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bruce Bowen	48	48	0.57	-0.07	0.63	-0.11	23	-10	33	15.7	17.9	-2.11	17.5	18.9	-1.38
Tim Duncan	58	58	0.54	-0.04	0.58	-0.10	22	-9	31	16.0	18.2	-2.18	17.5	19.3	-1.80
Tony Parker	59	60	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.09	12	1	11	16.1	18.0	-1.86	17.2	20.2	-2.92
Manu Ginobili	57	58	0.44	0.06	0.37	-0.00	15	-2	17	16.0	18.1	-2.09	18.9	16.2	2.72
Rasho Nesterovic	43	45	0.31	0.19	0.13	-0.27	20	-7	27	15.0	18.4	-3.35	19.0	16.9	2.05
Hedo Turkoglu	46	46	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.19	-3	16	-19	18.2	14.7	3.54	19.0	16.9	2.06
Kevin Willis	21	20	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.35	-9	22	-31	17.0	16.5	0.48	15.2	19.0	-3.70
Robert Horry	29	29	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.03	3	10	-7	18.6	15.6	2.99	21.1	16.4	4.68
Jason Hart	30	29	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.17	-4	17	-21	18.1	15.8	2.29	19.2	17.4	1.76
Ron Mercer	15	14	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.29	-10	23	-33	19.5	16.0	3.53	15.0	18.7	-3.68
Devin Brown	9	8	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	0.01	-4	17	-21	16.1	16.7	-0.59	12.2	18.7	-6.43

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.68,0.67,0.71,0.69,0.73,0.76,0.75,0.81,0.74,0.75,0.69,0.67,0.63,0.68,0.71,0.67,0.59,0.59,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.79,0.79,0.88,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 83, NYK 91	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.74,0.78,0.74,0.75,0.71,0.65,0.66,0.75,0.72,0.72,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.75,0.81,0.86,0.85,0.9,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	96.3%
ORL 61, PHI 78	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.63,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.69,0.68,0.74,0.72,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.71,0.7,0.58,0.61,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.79,0.85,0.85,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%
MIL 99, MIN 116	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.74,0.7,0.75,0.76,0.78,0.79,0.69,0.73,0.74,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.77,0.77,0.8,0.81,0.84,0.84,0.8,0.88,0.9,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.96,0.98,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%