NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	111		Excitement	5.4 [728]		MVP	Shawn Marion (PHX): +13.1%
Phoenix Suns	101		Comeback	2.1 [231]		LVP	Joe Johnson (PHX): -14.0%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
George Lynch	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.09	0.02	-0.00	8	76%	0.12	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
P.J. Brown	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.03	-0.02	9	62%	0.10	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
David West	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	3	87%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
David Wesley	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.04	0.01	16	41%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Stacey Augmon	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	100%	0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Robert Traylor	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	0.00	3	62%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Baron Davis	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	24	55%	0.14	6	-0.15	5	100%	0.01
Jamaal Magloire	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	7	55%	0.00	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.04
Darrell Armstrong	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	6	65%	0.06	3	-0.10	8	87%	0.03
Steven Smith	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shawn Marion	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.14,0.12,0.13	0.13	0.20	0.01	0.07	21	72%	0.16	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Casey Jacobsen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	-0.00	-0.04	5	77%	0.07	3	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Tom Gugliotta	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anfernee Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.01	10	58%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Stephon Marbury	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,-0.01	-0.01	0.05	-0.06	0.00	13	71%	0.06	3	-0.06	8	37%	-0.11
Jake Voskuhl	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.02	6	54%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jahidi White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	67%	0.00	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.22,-0.16,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.12	-0.03	-0.01	15	37%	-0.03	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	3.6	30.4	19.6	29.0	2.8	39.2	149.3
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOH +24.8%

NOH +4.5%

NOH +28.8%

PHX -7.6%

PHX -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	PHX	NBA	NOH	PHX	NBA
this game	15.6	14.7	15.7	116.8	106.3	100.5
season	16.0	14.6		99.3	99.6
opponent	15.9	15.7		103.6	99.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	14.9	15.4	15.9	16.2	15.6
PHX	15.7	17.4	14.1	12.1	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
P.J. Brown	76	75	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.14	16	-6	22	14.8	19.1	-4.33	14.9	13.8	1.04
Baron Davis	83	84	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.17	11	-1	12	15.3	18.3	-3.08	14.8	13.8	0.97
Darrell Armstrong	54	53	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.16	11	-1	12	16.0	15.1	0.87	13.9	15.6	-1.65
Jamaal Magloire	67	65	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.16	6	4	2	14.9	17.4	-2.53	15.0	14.0	1.03
George Lynch	53	52	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.09	6	4	2	15.1	16.3	-1.24	16.2	12.8	3.40
David Wesley	63	64	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.06	2	8	-6	15.3	16.3	-1.01	14.2	15.7	-1.49
Stacey Augmon	26	28	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.15	-1	11	-12	16.0	15.5	0.49	11.9	15.8	-3.89
Steven Smith	16	15	0.11	0.39	-0.27	-0.03	5	5	0	16.9	15.4	1.48	14.5	14.7	-0.25
Robert Traylor	18	19	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.07	0	10	-10	20.3	14.6	5.72	16.7	14.2	2.58
David West	19	20	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.07	-6	16	-22	19.1	14.8	4.33	13.8	14.9	-1.04

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jahidi White	39	37	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.07	2	-12	14	15.2	14.3	0.90	17.1	14.7	2.40
Tom Gugliotta	24	24	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.10	0	-10	10	14.5	14.7	-0.18	16.4	15.4	0.98
Anfernee Hardaway	51	51	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.01	-9	-1	-8	16.4	12.6	3.80	15.5	15.8	-0.33
Casey Jacobsen	55	56	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.22	-5	-5	0	13.6	16.1	-2.51	15.7	15.6	0.13
Shawn Marion	84	84	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.15	-9	-1	-8	14.6	15.1	-0.47	15.5	17.1	-1.64
Joe Johnson	73	73	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.16	-9	-1	-8	14.6	14.8	-0.13	16.0	14.4	1.60
Stephon Marbury	93	92	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.20	-8	-2	-6	14.4	25.5	-11.06	15.4	23.7	-8.29
Jake Voskuhl	56	58	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.14	-12	2	-14	14.3	15.2	-0.90	14.7	17.1	-2.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.67,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.55,0.49,0.56,0.47,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.24,0.2,0.24,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.19,0.22,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.06,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.04,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 108, NOK 94	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.63,0.65,0.66,0.63,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.6,0.56,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.42,0.28,0.27,0.3,0.26,0.23,0.21,0.17,0.16,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.1,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	95.1%
BOS 86, ORL 77	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.56,0.62,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.57,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.44,0.42,0.34,0.25,0.2,0.19,0.16,0.13,0.17,0.14,0.21,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.13,0.16,0.19,0.15,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.17,0.12,0.07,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.08,0	94.2%
DET 103, ORL 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.48,0.56,0.52,0.46,0.33,0.25,0.22,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.19,0.21,0.16,0.15,0.14,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.18,0.24,0.19,0.1,0.03,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.01,0	94.2%