NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	103		Excitement	5.8 [681]		MVP	Austin Daye (DET): +23.2%
Orlando Magic	96		Comeback	1.6 [136]		LVP	Hedo Turkoglu (ORL): -16.4%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Austin Daye	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.23	0.16	0.08	0.01	9	77%	0.23	0	0.00	8	75%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.13	0.09	0.05	0.01	9	64%	0.13	0	0.00	7	100%	0.03
Tayshaun Prince	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11	0.08	0.02	-0.01	14	67%	0.15	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Ben Gordon	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	13	52%	0.08	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.02
Chris Wilcox	0.04	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	2	80%	0.04	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Greg Monroe	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	6	44%	0.02	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.04
Jason Maxiell	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.01	19	45%	0.01	2	-0.04	6	67%	0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Bynum	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.01	-0.02	7	0%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Quentin Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.04	0.00	3	83%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.02	0.04	13	59%	0.08	2	-0.04	8	50%	-0.04
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.09	-0.01	0.05	11	70%	0.15	4	-0.12	8	87%	0.01
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	83%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	-0.02	0.02	8	64%	0.05	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.01
Brandon Bass	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.01	10	48%	0.01	1	-0.03	5	40%	-0.04
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04	-0.04	-0.09	-0.00	-0.05	11	27%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	7	47%	-0.00	2	-0.07	5	60%	-0.03
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.18,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.12	-0.04	0.01	8	25%	-0.08	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	2.3	34.5	16.3	26.5	2.5	39.4	146.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +21.1%

ORL -1.8%

ORL -3.9%

DET +29.5%

DET +5.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	ORL	NBA	DET	ORL	NBA
this game	17.8	14.8	15.5	117.0	107.9	105.7
season	16.7	15.2		106.4	106.3
opponent	16.2	15.2		101.1	110.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	17.0	17.5	19.3	17.4	17.8
ORL	13.7	13.8	15.7	16.1	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tayshaun Prince	61	64	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.14	17	-10	27	16.7	20.2	-3.53	14.9	14.5	0.43
Tracy McGrady	66	68	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.17	15	-8	23	16.7	21.0	-4.36	14.9	14.5	0.41
Austin Daye	63	64	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.27	7	0	7	17.6	18.2	-0.65	14.6	15.3	-0.74
Greg Monroe	56	58	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.22	3	4	-1	17.9	17.5	0.38	15.3	13.8	1.45
Rodney Stuckey	60	62	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.27	0	7	-7	18.0	17.3	0.66	15.2	13.9	1.24
Chris Wilcox	28	28	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.08	5	2	3	18.6	17.4	1.28	14.1	15.1	-0.99
Ben Gordon	42	40	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.14	2	5	-3	17.9	17.7	0.25	14.2	15.2	-0.97
Jason Maxiell	2	2	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.01	1	6	-5	16.0	17.8	-1.81	11.0	14.9	-3.87
Ben Wallace	35	34	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	0.04	-5	12	-17	18.8	17.1	1.75	14.9	14.7	0.11
Will Bynum	27	25	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.15	-10	17	-27	20.2	16.7	3.53	14.5	14.9	-0.43

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
JJ Redick	21	22	0.16	-0.66	0.82	-0.04	7	-14	21	15.2	14.7	0.53	19.4	17.2	2.18
Quentin Richardson	22	22	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.08	-2	-5	3	14.8	14.8	-0.02	18.1	17.7	0.48
Brandon Bass	54	53	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.08	-6	-1	-5	14.1	15.8	-1.67	18.7	16.3	2.37
Ryan Anderson	50	49	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.24	-1	-6	5	14.9	14.7	0.17	17.1	18.6	-1.47
Gilbert Arenas	49	48	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.08	-9	2	-11	13.8	16.0	-2.16	16.5	19.3	-2.89
Jason Richardson	56	56	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.18	-7	0	-7	15.2	14.1	1.11	17.7	17.9	-0.21
Hedo Turkoglu	66	65	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.24	-5	-2	-3	14.7	15.0	-0.35	17.5	18.4	-0.90
Jameer Nelson	55	54	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.25	-6	-1	-5	15.1	14.4	0.70	18.1	17.2	0.92
Dwight Howard	72	71	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.28	-6	-1	-5	15.3	12.5	2.86	17.8	17.7	0.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.48,0.56,0.52,0.46,0.33,0.25,0.22,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.19,0.21,0.16,0.15,0.14,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.18,0.24,0.19,0.1,0.03,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 102, HOU 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.65,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.42,0.37,0.25,0.2,0.14,0.16,0.17,0.11,0.12,0.16,0.12,0.21,0.14,0.13,0.18,0.13,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.15,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.04,0,0,0,0	94.9%
BOS 86, ORL 77	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.56,0.62,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.57,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.44,0.42,0.34,0.25,0.2,0.19,0.16,0.13,0.17,0.14,0.21,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.13,0.16,0.19,0.15,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.17,0.12,0.07,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.08,0	94.8%
POR 106, DAL 91	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.48,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.12,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.11,0.14,0.11,0.19,0.06,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	94.8%